ACUS11 KWNS 140651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140650=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-140815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Far southeast WI across southern Lake Michigan into
southern Lower MI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...107...

Valid 140650Z - 140815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106, 107
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may spread east-southeastward
into southern Lower Michigan through the early morning.

DISCUSSION...A fast-moving line segment with occasional embedded
circulations is moving across Milwaukee as of 0645 UTC. Area VWPs
(KMKX, KMKE, KGRR) all depict strong low-level southwesterly flow,
with 60+ kt noted at 1 km AGL. This strong low-level flow and
favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support organized storm
structures through the overnight hours. While MLCINH will continue
to gradually increase with time and eastward extent, a seasonably
warm and moist overnight boundary layer (with MLCAPE of greater than
1000 J/kg) may support a continued threat of damaging gusts into at
least southwest Lower MI, after the line crosses the lake. A
line-embedded tornado also remains possible, given the very strong
low-level shear/SRH.=20

Uncertainty remains regarding the longevity of the threat into a
larger portion of southern Lower MI, given the presence of a
more-stable boundary layer with eastward extent. However, with the
potential for strongly sheared convection to persist overnight,
local expansion of WW 107 and/or downstream watch issuance may be
needed.

..Dean/Smith.. 04/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4nkOfBBhZQbn0tAIb40n-CbSk3U4QFNsMSdOlHlAnBoN8FedT_KPQSRJI8rtpcmQLS0Htr_4W= RpQRCLUD1B6OTG69mw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON 43668786 43638604 43528460 42868402 42458402 42248422
41918480 41908537 41968633 42148702 42398767 42728843
43668786=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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