• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0415

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 14 02:46:53 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 140246
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140246=20
    MOZ000-140415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0415
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0946 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

    Areas affected...Central Missouri

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 105...

    Valid 140246Z - 140415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues.

    SUMMARY...Occasional wind damage and large hail threat may persist
    until 05-06z across central Missouri, but the tornado threat is
    slowly diminishing and a new downstream watch appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The earlier supercells have undergone cell interactions
    and modest upscale growth into a cluster with a more expansive cold pool/outflow. A discrete supercell persists to the south in Henry
    Co. MO, though this storm should be slowly absorbed into the
    southeast flank of the cluster. Thus, the more probable outcome
    will be for gradual mergers and development atop the cold pool to
    allow a storm cluster to persist for another few hours while
    spreading eastward into central MO. Occasional damaging winds of
    60-70 mph and large hail around 1 inch in diameter will be the
    primary threats, though an isolated/brief tornado will still be
    possible with embedded circulations along the leading edge of the
    cold pool, and as the remnant supercell interacts with the cold
    pool.

    ..Thompson.. 04/14/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_uN5lJ1we7HPHdsUCVtMTXzCQjbyXUZnWUUU24RMhmnYyl3fz9jVQzGpUb8uUVJKRXuloUBNV= ZJ3XiuKugj-3GYAp_0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38429263 38359370 38579399 39099398 39279369 39419284
    39299241 38859235 38429263=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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