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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0414

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 14 02:15:53 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 140215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140215=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-140315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0414
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

    Valid 140215Z - 140315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

    SUMMARY...A replacement for the 03Z expiring WW 103 is expected
    soon. Damaging winds will become more of threat with time, but the
    threat for tornadoes will still be a concern into the overnight
    given the strong low-level shear.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across the Upper Midwest has
    generally become more linear over the past few hours. The increase
    of the low-level jet (50+ kts observed on the KMKX VAD) suggests
    that buoyant inflow will be sustained as storms move south and east
    into the overnight period. The threat for damaging winds will likely
    be on the increase as linear segments continue to organize and
    low-level flow remains strong. The tornado threat has decreased
    somewhat due to a less favorable storm mode. Even so, the KMKX VAD
    has a notable 700+ 0-1 km SRH. The potential for tornadoes will
    still be concern both with QLCS circulations and any discrete storms
    that may form ahead of the linear segments. WW 103 is set to expire
    at 03Z and a replacement watch will need to be issued soon.

    ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JsmBT2jOKwNtVSkmJJ8X3XR0XVWHC6Ont2FVPGTP9RMfB6WudanUadBWNdRZRTOtQj9fqAd_= KNluN4BGJukXEkZBjo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43409324 44069262 44539011 44488961 43858785 42638782
    42648814 42668917 42659015 43409324=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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