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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0413

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 14 01:17:21 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 140117
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140116=20
    MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-140245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0413
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0816 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

    Areas affected...Far northern Iowa into southeast Minnesota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

    Valid 140116Z - 140245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

    SUMMARY...Areas near the warm front in southeast Minnesota and on
    the southern end of ongoing activity in north-central Iowa will see
    the greatest tornado risk over the next couple of hours.
    Large/very-large hail will be possible with supercells. Severe wind
    potential will increase with upscale growth that occurs.

    DISCUSSION...Strong low-level shear is noted on VAD data from KDMX
    and KARX. As nocturnal cooling should remain slow on account of
    theta-e advection, low-level thermodynamic profiles will remain
    supportive of tornadoes for another 3-4 hours or so. The main areas
    of tornado risk will be along the warm front in southeast Minnesota
    as well as a isolated supercell on the southern flank of the
    activity in north-central Iowa. In between these areas, storms have consolidated and grown upscale. This will pose a risk for additional
    QLCS circulations as well as severe winds. Large to very-large hail
    remains possible with the most discrete cells.

    ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-t2o86HZQbkcL_tqEmmZJGeC4OjWdeBr_U0m7SnINmlVSVdXNre-W-eRGO9uJrn17-2KsnNpr= dGDlXPqUG0fUVgdMrc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 42829492 43149510 43429448 44109361 44479265 44469198
    44239163 43719160 42939208 42829492=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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