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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0410

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 14 00:26:21 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 140026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140025=20
    MIZ000-140230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0410
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

    Areas affected...Portions central/southern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 140025Z - 140230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in the low-level jet across parts of the lower
    Great Lakes region could initiate storms capable of large hail and
    isolated damaging winds. Convective trends are being monitored for a
    possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...A lone cell has been ongoing west of Lansing along
    outflow from a convective cluster to the south and east. This storm
    has produced marginally severe hail thus far. Lapse rates at
    midlevels were quite steep on the observed DVN sounding (8.2 C/km)
    with diminishing values farther east (observed DTX showed 6.3 C/km).
    During the evening, the low-level jet is forecast to be focused over
    the Upper Midwest, including lower Michigan. There are already signs
    of ascent from northern Illinois into Lake Michigan. With some
    guidance showing additional, intensifying activity evolving over the
    next few hours, these areas are being monitored for a possible
    watch. Large hail and isolated damaging winds would be the primary
    threats. The tornado risk is not as clear as low-level profiles are
    expected to be neutrally stable at best. That said, low-level
    hodographs will be large and theta-e advection will slow nocturnal stabilization.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/14/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7tqKg0R-biUPdGFpluUGLV-aGB9K0MIT2BlzUraLoaQnTqIi24CIVF0TgRLIG5FIWYSfdArpU= Bz08x6mST0bfHwbbu8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 42228439 42038492 41978586 42088645 43128730 43938757
    44268701 44328620 43238398 42608389 42228439=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)