ACUS11 KWNS 132149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132148=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Wolf River Valley into adjacent Upper
Peninsula of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132148Z - 132345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated severe gusts are possible with
elevated supercells this afternoon/early evening. A watch is
possible should convective trends in storm intensity warrant.

DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to develop within the Wolf River
Valley region. These storms exist north of the warm front. While
buoyancy is more limited with northern extent, strong shear noted on
the KGRB VAD and steep mid-level lapse rate on the observed 18Z GRB
sounding suggests elevated supercells will be capable of large hail
and isolated severe wind gusts. The warm front will slowly try to
move northward into the evening, though cooler lake air in the Fox
River Valley/Sturgeon Bay is noted and will hinder this process to
some extent. That being said, the overall tornado threat should
remain low, though it will not be zero for any storm near the warm
front.

..Wendt/Hart.. 04/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_YT18Bwi4hvlPgs45NpJKffKbEI9gikS-ujOeYdgQkiwoRbeuolyVY40dFea08h9vE0okmHwH= jJnQH-37R9uv-niex0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON 44988766 44628859 44688902 44828929 45258949 45398943
45608920 45848866 45898737 45348721 44988766=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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