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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0401

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 13 19:59:47 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 131959
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131959=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-132130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0401
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

    Areas affected...portions of extreme southeastern South Dakota into
    extreme northern Iowa and southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 131959Z - 132130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase along and to the north of
    a warm front over the next few hours. Severe wind/hail and at least
    a few tornadoes are possible. A couple of strong tornadoes may
    occur. A Tornado Watch is being issued.

    DISCUSSION...As widespread stratiform clouds erode in proximity to a
    warm front, MLCINH will continue to decrease, which is already
    supporting the development of a CU field between the primary warm
    front (where richer moisture is in place along the MN/IA border),
    and a differential heating boundary to the north in southern MN.
    Over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kts of effective bulk shear is in
    place, which will support supercell structures capable of severe
    wind and hail. Severe hail is possible with any storms along the
    warm front or near the differential heating boundary, with 2+ inch
    hail possible. Tornadoes will also be possible with supercells
    anchoring to the warm front. Should a more dominant, discrete
    supercell sustain along the warm front, strong tornadoes will become
    possible. A Tornado Watch will be issued soon.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/13/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NW95ldsZT-TP9UDlZBRA1Imz8YZH4JYe2DJPH2P77oDxFRVVIwH4xEhgpPPACAitamxKMXrm= _xjIZ7DZKa4t3jFJG4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43929685 44459550 44789417 44819352 44659307 44239276
    43749272 43409307 43269386 43309488 43409583 43489621
    43619666 43929685=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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