ACUS11 KWNS 122019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122018=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-122245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...parts of northwestern Texas through western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122018Z - 122245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity may
develop and pose a risk for a couple of strong downbursts
approaching or exceeding severe limits through 6-7 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Substantive destabilization is ongoing along and ahead
of the dryline, which continues to gradually mix eastward across the
Texas South Plains, and now through west Oklahoma. Even so,
convergence along the dryline remains weak, and mid-level heights
are tending to rise in the wake of short wave troughing progressing
into the upper through middle Mississippi Valley. Guidance
generally suggests that potential for thunderstorm initiation
along/east of the dryline is low at least into early evening, if not
beyond.

However, where convective temperatures are being reached in the
deepening mixed boundary layer to the west of the dryline, deepening
convective development is evident, particularly now in a cluster
west-northwest of Lubbock into areas east of Amarillo. Despite weak
CAPE, at least some further intensification is possible as this
activity spreads east northeastward through 21-00Z. Calibrated
thunderstorm guidance even indicates low probabilities for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development.=20=20

As this occurs, based above a roughly 3+ km deep boundary-layer with
40-50 degree temperature dew point spreads, and in the presence of
20+ kt mean lower/mid-tropospheric flow, a couple of strong
downbursts approaching or exceeding severe limits appear possible.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7l3YUbwC9X7uiOGPyfbCCWtinTl929VbcjuO7xS4HnmFX7LCzaFj1GKfQGh5d9GdPjLdSzhwT= jByJCFkhdkGGvW566M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 35500039 36669928 36509827 32670078 33930173 35500039=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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