ACUS11 KWNS 121753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121752=20
TXZ000-122015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121752Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development may persist into the 4-6
PM CDT time frame, perhaps accompanied by some risk for a brief
tornado, and a few strong surface gusts before storms diminish.

DISCUSSION...Moderate southerly return flow persists across the
middle Texas coastal plain, near the southern periphery of a belt of
40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow extending from south of the Texas
Big Bend through the southeastern Great Plains. One short wave
impulse embedded within this regime now appears to be shifting
across/northwest of the Ark-La-Texas vicinity, with perhaps an even
more subtle perturbation/associated speed maximum still upstream and
forecast to propagate across central Texas through mid to late
afternoon.

Likely aided by inflow of moist boundary-layer characterized by
surface dew points around 70F, which appears to be contributing to
CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, vigorous convective development to
the north-northwest of Victoria has been exhibiting transient
supercell structure the past couple of hours. This appears to
focused near a lingering 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet axis, which
various model output suggests may still undergo some strengthening
into mid/late afternoon. As this occurs, the aforementioned
convection and trailing storms developing to the southwest may
undergo further intensification and upscale growth.=20=20

This may be accompanied by at least some risk for a brief tornado.=20
With forecast soundings indicating near saturated profiles through a
fairly deep surface-based layer, the risk for damaging wind gusts
may be initially hindered, but, with time, this potential could
gradually increase with heavy precipitation loading and further
upscale convective growth.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Z4u0D1xZWYUgObVPFZ6NAM5LDhQ9ABXnuHIPX60K9_1Jam6AdCVg5jMhzmj73BpbqnsdF0XS= Uh5AH9cSkVssd6I-Fg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28349792 29269779 30349679 30349626 29909574 29159676
28349792=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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