938
AXNT20 KNHC 121034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for
the marine zones of Agadir through 13/12Z, and Tarfaya from 12/15Z
through 13/12Z. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int
for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border Gambia and southern Senegal, then extends southwestward to
03N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and
continues to 03S38W and to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from the Equator to
04N between 23W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 25W and 34W, and
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from a 1025 mb high center that is offshore
the Carolinas southwestward to the western Gulf. The related
gradient is generally allowing for mostly fresh easterly winds
across the basin. Both buoy observations and recent altimeter
satellite data indicate seas of 4 to 6 ft over the basin. Higher
seas of 7 to 10 ft are in the Straits of Florida, where strong
northeast to east winds are present. Much lower seas of 1 to 3 ft
are in the far northeast Gulf, where light to gentle east winds exist.

For the forecast, the high pressure center off the Carolinas will
begin to slide eastward into the western Atlantic starting this
evening. A ridge will extend southwestward from the high to the
north-central Gulf through the forecast period. The related gradient
will maintain moderate to fresh east winds across the basin through
Wed. Afterward, the high pressure will be weakening allowing for
winds over the area to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds.
Pulsing fresh to strong east winds will surge through the Straits of
Florida and into the southeastern Gulf starting today.
Seas across the basin will be at a mostly moderate state, except
reaching a rough state, at times, in the Straits of Florida
beginning on Mon. Seas subside around midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong
northeast winds south of about 15N between 72W and 79W and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are to 8 ft with these winds. The
scatterometer satellite data also shows a swath of fresh to
strong northeast winds in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south of 16N east of
75W and also west of 80W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these trades.
Lighter trades of gentle speeds are north of 16N east of 75W and
just south of Jamaica. Gentle to moderate trades are in the Gulf of
Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

Convergent trades are helping to sustain scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and offshore the coast of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong east winds and rough seas over the south-
central portion of the basin and near Colombia through the early
part of the week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building
seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and
south of Hispaniola through most of the upcoming week. Winds and
seas will diminish late in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A nearly stationary front extends southwestward from 31N59W to
26N63W, and to the north-central portion of the Dominican
Republic. Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered
moderate convection within 240 nm east of the front north of 26N,
and within 150 nm east of the front south of 26N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident along and just
inland the coast of Hispaniola.

A trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic from near 29N73W
to 25N72.5W. Isolated showers have recently developed from 25N
to 27N between 72W and 74W.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data reveals fresh to locally
strong northeast winds behind the front. Seas with these winds
are in the range of 7 to 10 ft between the front and the Bahamas.
Lower seas of 5 to 7 ft are west of the Bahamas, but occasionally
to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida. To the east of the front, the
basin is dominated by a broad area of high pressure that is
associated to a strong Azores high center of 1032 mb. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure
to its south is generally supporting moderate to fresh trades east
of 60W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period northeast swell.
An area of light to gentle winds is between the front and 60W.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed north and east swell within this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong northeast
winds behind the aforementioned front will expand in coverage
through Mon night as the northern portion of the frontal boundary
transitions back to a cold front as it reaches the northeast
forecast waters late on Mon. The winds then diminish to mostly fresh
speeds starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with
an associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large northeast swell
will linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

$$
Aguirre

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--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (1:2320/106)

336
AXNT20 KNHC 131005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Apr 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for
the marine zones of Agadir through 14/12Z and Tarfaya through
14/00Z. The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure
located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands and
relatively lower pressures in NW Africa supports these gale force
winds (Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts.
Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. Very
rough seas, in long period NW swell, are also reaching this area.

Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed
on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal border
of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then continues SW to
near 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to NE Brazil near 03S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N between 22W and 50W.

...GULF OF Mexico...

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends a ridge
across Florida into the Gulf region. Under the influence of this
system, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas
are noted over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.
Similar wind speeds are observed W of the Yucatan peninsula
associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to locally fresh E to
SE winds and moderate seas are observed elsewhere, except in the
far NE Gulf where light to gentle winds and slight seas are
occurring. High clouds from the deep convection over eastern
Mexico are being carried across the northwestern Gulf by upper-level winds.

For the forecast, the ridge will maintain moderate to fresh E to
SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Fri. Expect stronger
winds to pulse across the SE part of the Gulf, including the
Florida Straits, through Tue, and off the Yucatan Peninsula each
night through Wed, driven by local effects associated with a
thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front over the Atlantic that reaches Hispaniola and
a pre-frontal trough are helping to induce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and
Puerto Rico. High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with
the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades over the south-
central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 8 to
9 ft offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas
are also noted in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba.
Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic combined
with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean and near the coast
of Colombia today, then mainly fresh winds are expected through
Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will
prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of
Hispaniola through the the middle of the week. Winds and seas will
diminish across the basin late in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Gale Warnings off Morocco.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along
a stationary front that extends from 31N54W to Hispaniola. Fresh
to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found near and
behind the aforementioned frontal boundary, with the exception of
moderate to locally fresh E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas off NE and
central Florida. High pressure follows the front and extends a
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico. E of the front, high pressure of 1028 mb located midway
between the Azores and the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
are noted per scatterometer data N of 10N and S of a line from
30N20W to 25N40W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are within these winds.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will dissipate
late today but a frontal trough will persist reaching Puerto Rico
by this evening. Then, the frontal trough will move westward through
Wed while weakening. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will
persist west of the front/trough mainly south of 27N through midweek,
then diminishing through Fri.

$$
GR

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--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (1:2320/106)