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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0386

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 12 07:14:35 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 120714
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120714=20
    TXZ000-120915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0386
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

    Areas affected...Central and North Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101...

    Valid 120714Z - 120915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe wind gusts and potential for
    a tornado or two will continue over the next few hours across parts
    of central and north Texas.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing across
    northern sections of the Texas Hill Country. Ahead of the line, a
    moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoint in the mid 60s F.
    The RAP has weak instability over this moist airmass, with MLCAPE
    generally around 500 J/kg. The line is moving towards an axis of
    strong low-level flow, in which short-term model forecasts continue
    to strengthen late tonight into early this morning. In response,
    surface dewpoints will gradually rise, as a 50 knot speed max at 850
    mb develops ahead of the ongoing line of storms. This should help
    maintain a severe threat over the next few hours. Isolated severe
    wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible, mainly
    with rotating elements embedded in the line.

    ..Broyles.. 04/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_0SjwSHn3gikLKoAMOJJZ-Qib9lIDC02k20CEgsH-oABi8lBbXgm6m3Y9_ytEzVp-pg5jPnMm= ptnvKOi1IgLW1ULcV4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 32309732 31659725 30919731 30389754 30299782 30309819
    30389833 30529842 30719837 31169828 31639820 32399829
    32769834 33109825 33229798 33159761 32629740 32309732=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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