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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 12 04:53:04 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 120452
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120452=20
    TXZ000-120615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0385
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1152 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

    Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into parts of north-central TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100...

    Valid 120452Z - 120615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts and a brief tornado remain
    possible into the overnight hours.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS has evolved across parts of
    Edwards Plateau, with multiple embedded bowing segments noted from
    east of San Angelo to north of Del Rio. Organized storm structures
    are expected to persist into the early overnight hours, given
    favorable moisture, effective SRH (generally in the 100-200 m2/s2
    range) and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the magnitude of the
    threat may be tempered to some extent by the modest buoyancy (MLCAPE
    of 500-1000 J/kg) and weak low-level lapse rates.=20

    Strong to locally severe gusts will continue to be possible with any
    persistent bowing segments, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
    given the presence of sufficient low-level shear. Some severe threat
    may develop east and north of WW 100, though the need for local
    watch expansion or new watch issuance will be dependent on
    short-term observational trends regarding convective vigor and
    organization into the early morning.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-o2o9L9a48b1uQzDWyzG453ThfJVGUmeAxMtpuvPJY0IcI7YrVmmOjdPP_dxssefpLL7nAsyp= 70jcB479Txv1tVAfAY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29490071 30430023 31449968 31789975 32669910 32999899
    32919826 32249819 31539833 31339842 30409891 29319987
    29180027 29190086 29490071=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)