ACUS11 KWNS 112232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112232=20
KSZ000-120000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112232Z - 120000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for severe hail/wind and possibly a tornado may
spread eastward. The longevity of the threat is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...An HP supercell has recently developed to the
west-northwest of Wichita, within a region of ascent that may have
been related to a minor MCV that earlier moved out of the southern
High Plains. The KICT VWP depicts gradually enlarging low-level
hodographs, with sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection. Downstream MLCINH is minimal, which may help this
supercell cluster to persist into early evening, though in the
absence of stronger synoptic-scale ascent, storm-scale dynamics and
the influence of cell mergers may determine the longevity of this
cluster and the attendant severe threat.=20

While midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep (as observed
in the 17Z LMN and 18Z DDC soundings), MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg
will support large-hail potential for as long as the supercell
structure persists. Severe RFD and outflow gusts will also continue
to be possible. Low-level shear/SRH are also sufficient for some
tornado threat, though the ongoing HP structure and extensive
outflow will tend to limit tornado potential to some extent.=20

Given the isolated nature and uncertain duration of the ongoing
threat, the need for watch issuance remains uncertain. However, in
the short term, a localized but potentially substantial severe
threat may spread across south-central KS, near and north of
Wichita.

..Dean/Thompson.. 04/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5sr1e8W7Zpedi5tSipTmSaOOGuarkR_FNL-tNhy8xE-n_Ss5QLfxwzlpyI_DhSJQljGM5cRR7= v5-akFjFuI1AqTMfIE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...

LAT...LON 37989805 38129728 38099653 37639645 37559666 37489708
37519746 37589785 37989805=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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