ACUS11 KWNS 111841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111841=20
COZ000-NMZ000-112045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Colorado into northern New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111841Z - 112045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe wind or hail are possible
with the stronger storms moving off of the higher terrain.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon peak heating, the approach of an embedded
mid-level impulse, and orographic lift, are all contributing to
thunderstorm initiation and increasing coverage across portions of
southern CO into northern NM. 40+ kts of southwesterly mid-level
flow are overspreading the region, contributing to elongated
hodographs and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear (per 18Z
mesoanalysis/ABQ observed sounding). With 8+ C/km low- and mid-level
lapse rates supporting close to 1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE,
multicells should continue to develop through the day, accompanied
by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. The severe threat
should be isolated, with a WW not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4jO3pVqPepvvslon-obMzLYuHZfgabUU2_165qhS_wdGNzOujPZ7fZBA5oCdk9JRiQWPoNw7i= JD3yXRlGlQqgABaoe4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON 35230609 36090723 36670771 37480781 38520675 39210560
39570474 39620406 39300354 38760332 38030337 37120361
36340395 35560474 35230609=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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