ACUS11 KWNS 111802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111802=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-112030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111802Z - 112030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development by 3-5 PM CDT may
include a couple of storms with potential to produce severe hail.=20
It is not yet certain when, or if, a severe weather watch will be
needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development has been slowly, but
steadily, spreading across Chihuahua, into and across the
international border area of southwest Texas. This appears to be
occurring on the leading edge of forcing for ascent associated with
a modest mid-level short wave trough and associated 30-50+ kt
southwesterly 500 mb jet streak, which are forecast to continue
across the mountains of southwest Texas and Pecos Valley vicinity
through early evening.

In advance of this activity, moist south-southeasterly low-level
flow coupled with insolation, beneath weak mid-level cooling, are
contributing to substantive destabilization. By 20-21Z, it appears
that this may include mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of 1500
J/kg in at least a narrow corridor east of the Texas Big Bend
through Fort Stockton and perhaps Wink/Midland vicinities.

As thunderstorm activity acquires increasingly unstable inflow,
coincident with strengthening deep-layer shear, intensification may
yield a few supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail,
before activity slowly consolidates and grows upscale later this
afternoon. A brief tornado may not be entirely out of the question,
but this potential will be limited by modest to weak low-level
hodographs. And the risk for strong to severe surface gusts may be
generally slow to develop, largely dependent on the evolution of
persistent upscale growth supportive of developing
lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortices.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9la9X1IGRUOhgLSDMFRbfGt4b2N_vHAkroFUSlbd162-DrVzleeNZndbjewWVJfAza-kVNZQh= fs26dajuou_R2NMiPU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29680173 28800282 29020374 30910329 31870332 32350234
31850171 29680173=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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