ACUS11 KWNS 102313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102313=20
ORZ000-110115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western OR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102313Z - 110115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased across parts of
western OR this afternoon, within a region of ascent to the north of
a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across parts of northern
CA and vicinity. Filtered diurnal heating beneath cold temperatures
aloft (around -20C at 500 mb) has allowed MLCAPE to rise to
near/above 500 J/kg, sufficient for sporadic strong updrafts. Modest
midlevel southerly flow is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt,
marginally supportive of at least transient updraft organization.=20

As storms move northward across the Willamette Valley and adjacent
higher terrain areas, small to marginally severe hail and locally
gusty winds will be possible through the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening.

..Dean/Thompson.. 04/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!69X7bS0BXYdraPZP6JZReVHghSxneFy3gW-g99p2aAAsE9rChH-XHx20MM6Empkhd0ApCFfpz= Ox-lj2UxC3Ol-bEMgM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON 42992354 43482374 44222355 44982325 45242287 45102226
45002194 44462196 43782209 43132239 42892271 42822314
42992354=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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