ACUS11 KWNS 102048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102048=20
CAZ000-102245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of central California

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102048Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An instance of hail or perhaps a brief tornado may
accompany the stronger storms that manage to develop this afternoon.
However, the severe threat should remain sparse.

DISCUSSION...Widespread clouds, rainfall, and occasional
thunderstorms have overspread the central and northern CA Valley
region through much of the day, inhibiting destabilization to a
degree. However, some breaks in the clouds have allowed surface
temperatures to reach into the mid 60s to low 70s F, amid 50 F
dewpoints over the lower Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin
Valley. 20Z mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg, with
just over 150 J/kg CAPE in the 0-3 km layer. With continued heating/destabilization, multicells and low-topped supercells should
develop. Given some low-level vertically oriented vorticity present
in the Valley areas, any supercell that can become sustained may
ingest this vorticity and produce a brief tornado, in addition to
some hail. Nonetheless, the severe threat will be quite isolated at
best, so a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46cwX1C6BRu6tqMUQFxGXQIS4NOcoFD49Y6jquX07SIB6QPIEgVvIDTWwKALP-1IjCeUOrFk8= u6UDdVBbCB_DKZF9t8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON 36782046 37762115 38342143 38552135 38652113 38592084
38372056 38022021 37721997 37401976 37161969 36951978
36862008 36782046=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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