AWUS01 KWNH 262047
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Areas affected...Northern Ohio...Western & Central PA... Southwest
NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262045Z - 270230Z

SUMMARY...Saturated upper-layer soils/low FFG may be locally
exceeded given potential for quick burst thunderstorms capable of
.5-.75"/hr rates and localized totals of 1.5-2", especially
in/near corridor or two of repeating cells.

DISCUSSION...A strong 150-180kt 250mb zonal jet is streaking
across the northern Great Lakes into southern Quebec with a subtle
but sufficiently diffluent right exit region across the Lower
Great Lakes this afternoon. In response, strong southwesterly
warm-air advection regime is drawing higher moisture and slightly
above normal higher theta-E air across the northern Ohio Valley
into the Allegheny Plateau. Low level flow is solid per VWP with
35-45kts of 925-850mb flow from the southwest with sufficient
veering through 700-500mb to allow for a fairly unidirectional
steering flow, with allowable for upstream redeveloping cells to
potentially repeat across the area of concern late this afternoon
into evening.=20

At the surface a well defined front extends from the main surface
low in SE IA across the southern LP of Michigan where secondary
weaker wave exists, likely responding to the mid-level
shortwave/diffluence pattern aloft. Surface moisture convergence
in proximity to the surface front is further enhanced by cooler
Lake Breeze and sharper low level temperature gradient along the
southern coasts. This isentropic boundary in the low level flow
regime will support enhanced moisture convergence at the
northwestern nose of the mid-level instability pool upstream over
IL/IN/NW OH. Available moisture is slightly above average with
total Pwat values AoA 1.25", though the bulk is below 700mb and
any thunderstorm development will help to load in the lower
profiles providing some increased rainfall potential. Forward
propagation will be very fast limiting overall duration, but
Hi-Res CAMs include recent WoFS runs suggest isolated but broader
updrafts capable of the very quick bursts of .5-.75" in 15-30 minutes...particularly further west and deeper into the more
unstable (1500+ J/kg MUCAPE), higher moisture.=20

However, the hydrological ground conditions are very sensitive as
green-up is just about to start. FFG values are below average
with hourly values about 1" reducing to .5-.75" across northern PA
into S central PA. NASA SPoRT LIS products show 0-40cm saturation
values over 60% increasing to over 80% where the lowest FFG value
are; so even less vertically intense showers/thunderstorms capable
of .25-.5"/hr rates downstream into NY/Central PA are likely to
shed nearly all rain toward runoff. The overall magnitudes and
coverage are likely to be limited in scope and lower end, but
still pose a possible incident or two of flash flooding. This is
also a concern across the larger urban centers of NE OH toward
Pittsburgh metro later this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9JCEIU5YItr7GdI7YePu8DnzptH-WUp77K6dlDwxPSN7BGp-1c-UvyeeyqpzQ03SeznQ= 4fb5sFTjjRsN87RHTbZVBP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42667650 42057570 41177590 40477698 40127924=20
40008191 39968419 40858437 41558200 42068053=20
42287976 42627812=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031949
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-040150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes & Western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040150Z

SUMMARY...Progressive but potentially training thunderstorms have
the potential to generate rainfall rates over 1.5"/hr. Locally
saturated soils could be particularly at-risk for flash flooding
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and low-level theta-e advection has
destabilized the atmosphere from central IN all the way to western
PA with as much as 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE having become
available in the past 3 hours per RTMA. Mesoscale guidance is
showing as much as 1.5" PWs will be available over the western
half of the at-risk region while PWs range between 1.2-1.5" over
eastern OH and western PA. All PWs referenced are comfortably
above the 90th climatological percentile. Mean winds within the
850-300mb layer are running nearly parallel to a quasi-stationary
front located over northern OH and along the Chautauqua Ridge.

As differential heating along the front strengthens and convective
temperatures over the OH Valley are reached, widespread showers
and storms will develop and track WSW to ENE this afternoon and
evening. Storms tracking parallel to the front with no change in
the mean storm motion will support the potential for training and
even back-building storms this afternoon. Soils in the region have
grown increasingly saturated, particularly eastern OH and western
PA where MRMS soil moisture values are between 50-75% saturated.
12Z HREF shows low chances (10-30%) for 3-hr QPF totals surpassing
3-hr FFGs in northern OH between 21Z and 00Z this afternoon, with
similar low chance probabilities in far western PA. Eastern IN is
farther east of the better probabilistic guidance, but some recent
CAMs runs have shown some potential for 1.5"/hr rainfall rates in
developing cells.

The progressive motion of these cells should limit storm residency
times, but with redeveloping storms expected to the south and
west, training of storms containing up to 1.5"/hr rainfall rates
are possible. 1-hr FFGs for much of the area range between
1.0-1.5" as well, making it possible for areas of flash flooding
to occur this afternoon. Low-lying and poor drainage areas are
at-risk, including more urbanized locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8l5tZCQ8U5jzSFpiqd3uD1sg9sw9HuwEmBUXx4_VUkwfn2SsR8DwDeLNy7zNTLlPDV96= lh7H6-9qcXBSYaN0UwToY5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41877921 41557891 41047925 40688006 40088151=20
39928202 39508341 39318469 39408562 40318614=20
40828559 40998427 41158336 41368168 41728016=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern OK & Northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032100Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms flaring up along and
ahead of the dryline and an approaching cold front will back-build
this afternoon and produce rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. Instances
of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery show
thunderstorms erupting along the cold front over southern KS and
near the dryline from the Red River on south and west. There is no
shortage of instability as RAP mesoanalysis shows anywhere from
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. PWs currently are less than
1.5" where storms are initiating. That will soon change as
southerly low-level flow sustains the ongoing 850mb theta-e
advection. Meanwhile, the cold front diving south will slow down
as southerly low-level winds intersect the boundary, allowing for
a prolonged window of low-level forced ascent into a highly
unstable environment. PWs will soon top 1.5" as the LLJ
strengthens and warm cloud layers gradually deepen as the evening
approaches.

Excellent vertical wind shear aloft (40-50 kts effective bulk
shear) and increasingly curved low-level hodographs containing as
much as 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH will support supercells at
the onset before congealing into a more organized linear cluster
of storms this evening. Where mesocyclones develop, rainfall rates
can be enhanced and exceed 2"/hr in some cases. The concern for
locally significant flash flooding is due to the slowing of the
cold front and the receding dry line as it backs up to the west.
Several hours worth of southerly flow into these frontal
boundaries combined with beneficial vertical wind profiles can
give rise to back-building thunderstorms from north TX into
central and northeast OK through this evening. 12Z HREF guidance
does show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for storms that are
capable of producing 6hr QPF > 6-hr FFGs through 06Z tonight. The
20Z run of the WoFS (15km neighborhood probabailities) also showed
some >50% probabilities for >2" of rainfall just north and south
of the OKC metro area through 02Z.

Soils in the Southern Plains welcome the rain given much of the
region's D1-D3 drought status. However, these kind of excessive
rainfall rates over very dry/hard soils can struggle to soak in
rainfall right away and act more as like a hydrophobic surface.
This can lead to rapid rises in water both in poor drainage areas
and near by creek beds. Any metropolitan areas with a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are also vulnerable. The
combination of excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and what is
appearing to be multiple rounds of thunderstorms into this evening
favors the likelihood for flash flooding. In cases where
back-building and training occur, locally considerable instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AiuvJ3eOGnAlJe23itflsM8uEAPnBo3alG2JInTg3_-1idawiIBf7s1ydK8mL7Kuvt2= 5xfQLpIeifP-eGgyqd8U1u4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36929643 36649567 35409609 33489996 33020080=20
32610173 32840212 33650126 34480022 35369909=20
36499793 36859739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032200
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...North Central IL...Western IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032200Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along and north of a warm front
will be capable of producing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates. With
prolonged, moist southwesterly flow expected to intersect the
front for several hours, flash flooding is likely through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar shows scattered thunderstorms having
formed along a warm front that extends from the strengthening area
of low pressure in northwest MO eastward into northern OH.
Low-level southwesterly flow is providing healthy theta-e and
moisture advection while MLCAPE along and just south of the warm
front is >2,000 J/kg. PWs are forecast to surpass 1.5" this
evening, which is above the 99th climatological percentile for
early-mid April. Meanwhile, sheared shortwave energy racing north
from the South Central U.S. will provide additional synoptic scale
lift aloft later this evening. Vertical wind profiles will favor
supercells with >40 kts of effective bulk shear and up to 200
m2/s2 of SRH. As storm form along the front, persistent inflow
into the warm front as it slowly moves north gives rise to
back-building and training storms, increasing concerns for longer
residency times for these storms.

Latest 18Z HREF shows moderate chances (40-60%) for rainfall
totals >2" in north-central IL. This is supported by the 21Z WoFS
using cumulative >2" paint balls through 03Z. There are several
CAMs members (RRFS, NSSL-MPAS, 20Z HRRR) that shows this cluster
of storms having the potential to produce localized rainfall
amounts >4" through this evening. 1-hr FFGs are generally below
1.5" for the majority of the at-risk region, and even 3-hr FFGs
are <2" (less than 1.5" on the southern periphery of the
Chicagoland area). The southern tier of Chicagoland could contend
with excessive rainfall this evening as elevated instability moves
northward and the storms lift northward with the warm front.

With concerns for training and back-building storms in an
atmospheric environment suitable to generate up to 2"/hr rainfall
rates, cases of flash flooding are likely in parts of central and
northern IL, and potentially in western IN this evening. Should
those >4" amounts on various CAMs come to fruition, locally
significant flash flooding could unfold. Poor drainage areas and
urbanized communities are most vulnerable to flash flooding this
evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Zqm5EQ8QJ4eq_dcSvuMqxde5ctbOiPbRtt4oF45VVxHWWHl6sfIkyj0o4kWhAQPiZLT= Tld5yLbJaYh2F-PYKE5BD7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41768809 41418739 40948612 40618601 40098627=20
40018747 39918909 39659073 39979130 40539086=20
40919006 41388917=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032249
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-040430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Central IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032245Z - 040430Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching from the southwest will
produce additional heavy rainfall over northern IA and southeast
MN that saw rainfall recently over the past 24 hours. With soils
growing increasingly saturated, localized flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Rounds of thunderstorms continue to develop just east
of the MO River as moist southwesterly flow at low levels
intersects the 850mb front oriented from western IA on north and
east into far southeast MN. Strong low-level WAA north of the warm
front is allowing for as much as 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE over central
IA. Another round of storms on the northern periphery of the
surface low will continue to race north and east over the next few
hours in an environment that sports >1.25" PWs, which are above
the 99th climatological percentile into central IA.

Soils within the highlighted region were already coming into today
a little more saturated thanks to yesterday's rainfall. NASA
SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles in north-central IA
were above 80% saturation coming into today. MRMS shows 3-hr QPE
from just north of Des Moines on north and east have received an
additional 0.5" of rainfall (locally higher totals too). Most
hourly rainfall rates are less than 1"/hr, but as the low deepens
and WAA increases, warm cloud layers will also deepen and warm
rain processes will make for more efficient rainfall rates that
could approach 1"/hr. Latest 1hr FFGs are as low as 1"/hr in
central IA. Flash flooding is possible, particularly along and
just north of the warm front and the track of the surface low
where a better source of instability is present. Locations most
at-risk to flash flooding are poor drainage areas and spots where
soils are beginning to struggle soaking in recent rainfall.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_r_IuqUMUIjk7Ch6sdo2ZPzGX-yKrltvOs3UOyWDa5oCCDftKcQQGGNHMWCbK50e-3YC= iIzHNj7H21Uytp12tVR17xs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43809169 43159133 42369175 41029340 40949450=20
41969505 42589467 43089354 43729249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040131
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-040729-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0077
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IN...Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040129Z - 040729Z

SUMMARY...Additional training thunderstorms producing hourly
rainfall rates up to 1.5"/hr remain possible through the overnight
hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms located along and just south of a warm
front are also forming along a narrow outflow boundary to the
south. Storms in northern OH have produced over 2" of rainfall in
some spots per MRMS QPE and one LSR southwest of Canton reporting
2 feet of water over a road. Rounds upon rounds of storms are
likely to continue from eastern IN and northern OH to as far east
as the WV Panhandle and southeast PA this evening. RAP
mesoanalysis continues to show at least 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE
available, effective bulk shear up to 30 kts, and anomalous PWs
between 1.25-1.5" at these storms disposal.

1-hr FFGs have decreased to as low as 1" in parts of northern OH
with all areas effectively below 1.5" thanks to this afternoon's
thunderstorm activity. 00Z HRRR continues to suggest the
persistent westerly 850-300mb mean layer winds aloft and low-level
winds supplying rich theta-e into the front will create a steady
diet of storms through the rest of the evening. 00Z HRRR 6-hr QPF
shows an additional 1-2" of rainfall are possible with localized
amounts over 3" possible between now and 08Z tonight. Given the
current state of ongoing flash flooding in the area, and more
excessive rainfall to come, additional flash flooding is likely.
Locally significant flash flooding is possible where another 1-2"
of rainfall occurs in areas that are already dealing with flash
flooding. Note that flooded roadways will be more difficult for
motorists to identify with the sun having now set. Motorists
should exercise caution if they must be on the roads tonight.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QCHH8OMPmGnSUAQ6cvwhTQNlISQOO_u7xsNTki7vtduQ6Yfb8xqYks-ICD21qvewlZx= D--TDlxavanM4ZMdv7ipPA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41218275 40998150 40778103 40268116 40118298=20
40358467 40628531 40898531 41188402=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040259
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040857-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma and north Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040257Z - 040857Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue for the next few
hours along the Red River Valley, north Texas, and central/eastern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Recent radar depicts an expanding convective complex
over central Oklahoma, with embedded supercellular structures near
Shawnee, OK. This complex has recently produced 1-2 inch rainfall
totals over Oklahoma City metro over the past hour, with moderate
to high MRMS Flash responses suggesting likely urban flash
flooding in the area. The complex was moving eastward at an
appreciable pace (around 30 knots) toward
less-sensitive/less-urban ground conditions, which may result in
flash flood potential becoming more isolated with time. However,
increasing low-level flow over eastern Oklahoma was contributing
to an increase in deep convection ahead of this complex, with
mergers likely to support continued 1-2 inch/hr rates at times for
at least the next couple of hours along and south of the I-40
corridor. Some training on the southwestern flank of this complex
could also spread flash flood potential into the Ada, OK vicinity
over the next 1-3 hours as well.

Convection was also developing upstream along a southward-moving
front through southwest Oklahoma and the Childress, TX area. The
speed of the front should limit the degree of repeating/training
convection here, and rainfall should occur over areas that have
been relatively dry. Isolated flash flooding is possible in low
spots where repeating can bump hourly totals above the 1-1.5 inch
range.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RR8Dwgx8Nc6M0A0rRRc7lEvTSp3Pc66kG1RjhwnissW-lHQcxBIxMjkCg_OVqBeydr1= NmrwFennnqw1AwUhDLDp2w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36359490 35139451 33999530 32909765 33140060=20
33670158 34770059 35119820 35499746 36219682=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040417
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5oGpcz_H95CrQ9P7DD1e772UzfPY8quem7gDqTHIPQBUNM21ddfJCYfx4tetiuCdKC1o= 5UVg3ubnlawvUTe_1gpyKOc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040420
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-040715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...northeastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040415Z - 040715Z

Summary...Training convection could persist for another couple
hours into southern suburbs of Chicago Metro.

Discussion...A persistent, SW-NE oriented band of convection has
trained along an axis very near I-55 between Joliet and Pontiac
over the past couple hours. The convection is becoming
progressively more elevated with time, but is persistent within a warm-advection regime located just above a stable boundary layer,
with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE (per SPC mesoanalyses) supporting strong
updrafts. The orientation of the convection was supporting
prolonged rainfall, leading to rates in the 1-2 inch/hr range
(1-2X higher than estimated FFG in the region). Downstream
instability profiles are supportive of this band of convection
reaching southern sides of Chicago Metro and far northwestern
Indiana over the next couple hours, resulting in at least isolated
flash flood potential. Outside of this band, deepening showers
were noted across a broader portion of northern and central
Illinois that may repeat over some of the same areas in line for
heavy rain from the aforementioned band, but degree of
training/high-rain rates is uncertain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95o1G44xhRAXek0_2DYk6pSIAZkkVhqDAI9oXcEzGf0JY7r_gN5CB_WeznGwL5J4COD_= ZWGH3d-nvcGE_myqltzA_K4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41888715 41528688 40948779 40988829 41278872=20
41738828=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050101-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TX...North-Central LA...Southern
AR...Western MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041901Z - 050101Z

Summary...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage across much of the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss
regions through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Areas with persistent training cells could get 1
inch/30 minute rainfall rates, which could result in a few
instances of flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in convection developing along
and ahead of a strong cold front. Multiple broken line segments of
pre-frontal storms have developed well ahead of the main line
across much of central and northern Louisiana, and also across the
northwestern half of Mississippi. These storms are starting to
convectively train, leading to enhanced rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour, and in some instances an inch in under 30 minutes
where cell mergers happen. This will moisten the soils before the
main line of convection approaches with the front later this
afternoon and evening.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches through 00Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. Although recent dry conditions across much of
the region is a mitigating factor, the higher rainfall rates may
be enough to result in a few instances of flooding, with a greater
potential for this across urban locations.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6TJ5Yo_BSMsrzRQZKvYUNRSR_uJFpYLZ3vmsP37NhCSEIVqSUE_Ps1NeodLAbn1FmHOR= 1J2GOMXYqyotTJXZK116pzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34009043 33878966 33038933 31229040 30609073=20
30419127 30769249 30769317 30659377 30399455=20
30019552 29779623 29599690 29809730 30049737=20
30439708 30819659 31309628 31709580 31949548=20
32179511 32539463 32809414 33029372 33239315=20
33349270 33429238 33569207 33669169 33859109=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050127
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Southern LA and South-Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050125Z - 050500Z

Summary...Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
much of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi through the
remainder of the evening hours, including extreme southeast Texas.
Areas with persistent training cells could get 1 inch/30 minute
rainfall rates, which could result in a few instances of flooding
through midnight.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating widespread convection along and ahead of an
approaching cold front. There are several multi-cell clusters that
have developed ahead of the main swath of convection associated
with the cold front, and these are aligned in the general low
level SSW winds and have been training over the past few hours.
Many locations across central Louisiana and central Mississippi
have already picked up 1-2 inches of rain over the past 6 hours,
and locally higher, therefore making the soils more saturated and
susceptible to potential flooding issues.

Recent runs of the RRFS and HRRR are indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 5Z, with
much of this likely occurring within a 2-3 hour time period for
any given location. This activity should generally diminish in
intensity going into the overnight hours as instability decreases.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4n9bWHs3DcmJI-CImz_pLZablPamVMzuhPYprk6cRUQCVqx1EJYLMgrvMwg8I9H8V1ET= 1swjHN2IRCxAozGJzLikTOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32978902 32908865 32708847 32308846 31608863=20
30838893 30148940 29799008 29729157 29749267=20
29929312 29999321 29999321 30389328 30679311=20
31149258 31689172 32199099 32609030 32918956=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050209
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050508-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1008 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050208Z - 050508Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection should eventually spread
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into McAllen, TX and vicinity through
04-05Z.

Discussion...Deep convection has become increasingly organized
across primary rural areas of Deep South Texas over the area. The
storms are focused along an inverted surface trough extending into
the area from northeastern Mexico, with light southeasterly
low-level flow maintaining a surface airmass characterized by 80s
F surface temps/70s F dewpoints into that axis. Storms were
becoming more organized and developing cold pools/weak
supercellular structures, which isn't surprising given directional
shear through the troposphere. Southward propagation of this
cluster should spread areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates into the
McAllen, Texas area and vicinity, where urbanized surfaces may
pose a risk of flash flooding as the cells move through.

The overall synoptic scenario supporting heavy rainfall should
change little through 05Z or so as the weak inverted trough
persists and weak mid-level waves traverse the area. The
longevity of convection along the Rio Grande is a bit uncertain
and highly dependent on the local evolution of convection in that
area, which should be relatively slow given weak wind fields aloft.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-PGiJtHrnrSTk1OIvgeZk0r5sWUOI26gjZ65SduasNkLAfkKNnkwDeGtAD4f9eftZcj= WdMnKW9T-MaPgYhBOS0pi_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26999850 26729741 25969739 26229887 26599905=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062108
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 PM EDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062105Z - 070200Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage through the early evening hours across central Florida
near an approaching cold front. High rainfall rates up to 2
inches/30 minutes may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in slow moving thunderstorms
across inland portions of the central Florida Peninsula late this
afternoon. Several multi-cell clusters have been exhibiting signs
of back-building over the past 1-2 hours, and these are producing
outflow boundaries that will converge to generate additional slow
moving convection that may be heavier that what is currently
happening now. The environment is favorable for storms with high
rainfall rates given mixed layer CAPE on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg, PWs near 1.7 inches, and 20-30 knots of effective bulk shear
per the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

Recent CAM guidance through 2Z is portraying the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 3-5 inches with the most
persistent convection, and much of this is likely to fall within a
two hour time period for any given location. HREF neighborhood
exceedance probabilities of 3-hourly flash flood guidance are up
to roughly 30% between Orlando and Fort Myers, and there are some
low-end probabilities of 6-hour QPF reaching 100-year ARI for some
of these areas. Although this area is in a drought, the high
sub-hourly rainfall rates could be enough to overcome this
limitation and result in some instances of flash flooding through
10 pm local time.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BCj-gL5y9Bht0KzO_qMa0emd3AmRjhExfsZOqRQ83_UtP26mbOpcV8kNYOWVCsm1DKi= ZcoPmWSl9HSE7FJnwRjG05M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28858171 28788116 28518087 28058066 27598059=20
27328077 27158090 26968105 26688088 26268101=20
26218148 26438174 27118228 27568238 28028244=20
28358242 28568237 28788213=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081826
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Areas affected...Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081825Z - 090025Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a history of
rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour are impacting portions of the
Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida, with increasing concerns for
impacts over sensitive urban areas. Flash flooding is possible
where the cells are the most persistent through the afternoon and
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Persistently moist and relatively unstable low-level
easterly flow continues to focus areas of showers and some
occasional thunderstorms into the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Much
of the activity is aligned with the low-level steering flow and
has been focusing near the offshore Gulf Stream with extensions
westward into areas mainly south of Melbourne and especially areas
just north of Stuart where convection is more concentrated. More
scattered activity is situated farther south down the coast into
the I-95 urban corridor of southeast Florida.

Despite the relatively scattered nature of the coverage, with
southwesterly flow aloft (as opposed to easterly flow in the lower
levels), the extreme directional shear present across Florida is
making an environment favorable for slow-moving and training
storms. Daytime heating is also allowing for instability to
increase, currently ranging from 2,000 J/kg near Miami to near
1,500 J/kg near Melbourne based on SPC Mesoanalysis. Atmospheric
moisture also ranges from 1.7" PWAT near Miami to 1.4" near
Melbourne. Thus, the greatest threat for the heaviest rains are
further south down I-95.

Multiple days of rainfall across all of southern Florida this past
week has sufficiently saturated the soils. Thus, expect much of
any heavy rainfall today to favor increased runoff. Ultimately any
impacts and the magnitudes thereof will be dependent on where any
training cells develop relative to how urban the ground underneath
the cells is. With rates in the strongest cells later this
afternoon expected to potentially reach 3 inches/hour, localized
totals to 6 inches can't be ruled out. This in turn would result
in localized flooding. Regardless, expect that the storms that
will be capable of flash flooding to remain isolated to widely
scattered.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7reFGpJjrW38AH1Upf3utPD1RP59anTYXGOCvwwonvVJOkizU1tqghWCW4TM6SECp_jb= F2MXRT9fT1GHYMWwAo3DhII$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28028067 27988037 26947997 25957994 25598022=20
25498051 25708057 26008045 26288039 26648033=20
26938037 27298050 27528056 27828068=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0085
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...east-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091017Z - 091500Z

Summary...Slow moving showers with possible embedded thunderstorms
are expected to focus isolated areas of heavy rain along the Space
and Treasure coasts through late morning. Localized hourly
rainfall of 2+ inches will be possible with storm totals of 2 to
4+ inches through 15Z, which may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 10Z showed scattered
showers between southern Brevard County and southern St. Lucie
County. 10.3 micron satellite imagery indicated cloud tops over
land were relatively warm at -20 to -35 C, with an estimated cloud
depth of 9 km AGL based on RAP analysis soundings over the region.
Easterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer were oriented
perpendicular to the coast while mid-upper level flow was from the
west at a similar magnitude. This has set up favorable effective
shear profiles for organized cells although 0-8 km AGL mean layer
winds were about 5 kt or less, resulting in slow cell movement. In
addition, the alignment of showers with the low level wind has
also resulted in slow movement of heavy rain cores at times with
recent development near Vero Beach showing signs of a weak MCV
over eastern Indian River County. MRMS-derived and KVRB hourly
rainfall of 2-2.5 inches has been observed with nearly 2 inches of
rain in 32 minutes at KVRB ending 0940Z. Speed and weak
directional convergence near the surface was allowing for the
formation of quasi-transient bands of heavy rain within an
expanding pocket of MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg (06Z-10Z SPC
mesoanalyses) over the east coast of FL.

While the future existence of the weak meso-vortex near Vero Beach
is unknown, convergence in the surface to near-surface layer is
expected to continue a threat for slow moving showers with
embedded thunderstorms from Brevard County down to St. Lucie
County over the next 3-5 hours. However, the concentration of
heavy rain is expected to remain limited in spatial extent through
the morning hours. Any areas of flash flooding that develop are
likely to focus across urban and other areas of poor draining,
remaining localized in coverage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mIL8BFa2gasaYWoyUi5qRG3Of1RRU_n9PRYp394FRPLoJ3dKXYY6S7SbSiGb2zS-sgD= TGJYn7ZaxolHVDjniKRixg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28608054 27788010 27008004 26998066 27908111=20
28528112=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100134
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0086
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
932 PM EDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100133Z - 100730Z

SUMMARY...Upscale growth of organizing supercellular convection
into a multi-cell cluster/MCS will promote a localized and
primarily urban flash flood threat going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and GOES-E IR satellite imagery
depict a cluster of supercells along a slow-moving cold front near
the KS/NE border. These storms are undergoing upscale growth, with
supporting factors including fairly strong effective bulk shear of
to 40 to 50 kts and MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg. Over the last
hour, this has favored an expansion of deep, cold convective tops
and intense updrafts.

As the 850 mb low-level jet veers and intensifies to over 40 kts
over the next several hours, low-level convergence will sharpen
along the western and southern flanks of the convective mass. With
storm motions of 15 to 25 kts generally parallel to the mean flow
and the boundary, periods of cell-training and cell-mergers are
expected. This will compensate for modest PWs of about 1.25 inches
and drive potential for high rainfall rates that may reach 1.5 to
2.5 inches/hour within the strongest cores and where any
cell-mergers occur.

While NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil moisture indicates significant
infiltration capacity in rural northeast KS, the 18Z HREF PMM and
neighborhood probabilities suggest localized 2 to 4 inch totals
are likely. These totals will approach and may locally exceed FFG
values and especially within the more sensitive urban corridors.
Areas downstream including Topeka, Kansas City and St. Joseph may
eventually see this activity later in the night. As such, the
concern over the next several hours, aside from well-defined
severe hazards with large hail, will be a localized and mainly
urban flash flood threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_V7P-J8QajZr8lmjAAmMYppb9LFmhtmko5uyNfAQNigk4X-nlxLjoH4L5j2wU9TvIs0M= nU_APk1NO-Lbst4Tpg4ANoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40059625 39869477 39589418 38989419 38569493=20
38389618 38599761 38989810 39639790=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101901
FFGMPD
OKZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101900Z - 110100Z

SUMMARY...Locally training areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will pose a threat for some urban flash flooding
going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cooling convective tops are seen in GOES-E IR
satellite imagery becoming aligned in a general west to east
fashion across portions of north-central to northeast OK in close
proximity to a quasi-stationary front. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms are becoming a bit more concentrated with this
activity, and the latest radar trends suggest slow cell-motions
and some increasing cell-training concerns.

The activity is being facilitated by moist and unstable low-level
southwest flow into the boundary with MLCAPE values of as much as
1500 to 2000 J/kg and PWs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region.
Despite relatively modest kinematic wind fields, there is an axis
of moderate moisture convergence in vicinity of the front, and
this coupled with increasing differential heating/instability near
the axis of convection should tend to sustain the convective
threat over the next few hours.

Generally the antecedent conditions are quite dry, with low soil
moisture content, but the rainfall rates with some of the ongoing
activity is already locally near 1.5 inches/hour. This coupled
with the slow cell-motions may favor some short-term totals of 2
to 4+ inches going through early this evening.

An isolated and mainly urban threat of flash flooding will exist
over the next few hours as a result, and this will include areas
from near Stillwater to Tulsa and along with adjacent communities.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OMNe7bjzHGDuwRqcrOJ2shcTqUhlC8m8hS1dASOvDqJHGktya8xtEnuVl08ZovWkQ9-= eoQLKiJCVgHcmzqf1PHbDHk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36599485 36349471 35939536 35829684 35999767=20
36369765 36489701 36469622=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102142
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas including the Houston
Metropolitan area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102141Z - 110200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving, outflow-driven thunderstorms interacting
over highly urbanized areas will be capable of producing localized
rainfall rates of 2+ inches/hour. Isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches
may rapidly overwhelm municipal drainage, making localized flash
flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends depict scattered,
slow-moving clusters of thunderstorms developing across southeast
Texas. The thermodynamic environment is characterized by a moist,
weakly convergent low-level flow off the Gulf of America, with
PWATs near 1.75 inches and MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. While
deep-layer shear remains weak (effective bulk shear 20-30 kts),
weak upper-level divergence is supplying modest deep-layer ascent,
aiding in some maintenance of robust, high-efficiency updrafts.

Given the weak steering flow, the convective mode is primarily
pulse-type and outflow-dominant. The immediate flash flood threat
will be driven by mesoscale boundary interactions. Regional radar
currently shows multiple outflow boundaries in play?most notably
one positioned southwest of the Houston metro and another near
IAH. As these boundaries interact over the next few hours,
mechanical lift may force rapid, near-stationary convective
development and upscale growth directly over more sensitive urban
locations.

Rainfall rates have already approached 2 inches/hour with the
strongest cells. High-resolution guidance, particularly the HRRR
which has initialized the current convective evolution well,
suggests these boundary collisions will support isolated
additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches through early this
evening. Furthermore, the 12Z HREF highlights 10-30% probabilities
for 3-hour FFG exceedance this over the next several hours. Given
the high impervious surface coverage across the Houston metro,
these rates and accumulations may overwhelm local drainage systems
and bayous, leading to isolated areas of rapid-onset urban flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UfP-FaEBTsYZq-U1BJISNdMdxS4kIjqF_7XutdEJFcVHfKrrsDx-b0npcVgfvZAwJZw= 5TdXzeXil7_qMLwkC4AGQLA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31059623 30659519 30319469 29999457 29479462=20
28919531 28909635 29599753 30359774 30939727=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110515
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and
the MO Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110507Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible from portions
of northeastern KS into southern/southeastern NE and the MO Valley
through 10Z. Brief training of thunderstorms will be capable of
1-2 in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage
across north-central KS into far southern NE as seen on area radar
imagery through 05Z. The cells were elevated, displaced well north
of a west-east oriented quasi-stationary front in OK, within an
airmass containing 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE per 05Z SPC mesoanalysis
data. Since 00Z, Southerly 850 mb winds have been strengthening
with 30-40 kt in place at 05Z per VAD wind data from northern OK
into southern NE. PWAT values were estimated to be between 1.0 and
1.3 inches across the central Plains with continued moisture
advection likely to increase PWAT values into the MO River Valley
through the night.

Some additional strengthening of the 850 mb flow into the 40-45 kt
range across KS is expected over the next 3-4 hours and the
approach of a weak shortwave impulse over southwestern KS should
continue an increasing trend in the coverage of elevated
showers/thunderstorms from northeastern KS into
southern/southeastern NE over the next few hours. As 850 mb winds
increase overnight, some veering of the low level flow is also
expected, bringing the low level wind orientation closer to the
mean steering flow from the SW. Given the moisture, instability
and forecast winds, some instances of training are likely to
result in hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. These higher rates
should remain limited in coverage but flash flood guidance is at
or below 2 inches in 3 hours for much of the region, due in part
to locally heavy rainfall over the past 36 hours. Therefore,
localized flash flooding may result overnight with 1 to 3+ inch
total rainfall possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!48qr4XsdiFtClShi6w-ZrnC2lWuijYOSz66OvZpJ5YDM_U5fNmZMtF-REmLIPl0U20QT= 1Yeb5phRPebNuvpJ0GHXGlw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41329712 41299612 41169573 40809531 40499501=20
40259485 39909472 39469469 39099484 38789510=20
38589566 38619653 39009760 39669878 40339891=20
40899846=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110955
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110953Z - 111330Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will linger for another
few hours from northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southwestern IA/northwestern MO. The primary concern will be from
repeating/training of thunderstorms which will be capable of 1 to
2+ in/hr rain rates.

DISCUSSION...A NW to SE axis of thunderstorms was observed on
radar imagery at 0930Z from the KS/NE border near Superior, NE to
near Westmoreland in northeastern KS. The slow moving axis has
been associated with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches over the past couple of hours but the axis of thunderstorms
appears to be slowly shifting northeast. 850 mb winds of 3o to 40+
kt continued to overrun a warm front slowly lifting north from
central OK with an axis of elevated convergence helping to focus
the cluster of heavy rain beneath a ridge axis aloft locally
aiding diffluent flow in the upper levels. A subtle shortwave was
also observed on water vapor imagery earlier in the night and is
likely approaching central KS with forecast movement toward the
northeast, around the ridge, helping to support lift.

850 mb wind speed magnitudes have likely peaked and recent RAP
forecasts showed gradual weakening through 15Z following the
diurnal cycle. However, ~25 to 35 kt of SSW 850 mb winds over
eastern KS will continue to overrun the surface boundary to the
south and the weak shortwave impulse approaching central KS from
the southwest will continue to provide ascent from northeastern KS
into the MO River Valley. Instability will be a limiting factor as
current values of MUCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg are forecast to
lower as moisture advection shifts the instability eastward across
the MO River.

The axis of heavy rain will likely translate eastward over the
next few hours with continued periods of training/repeating cells
with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall rates. This will continue to pose a
localized threat for flash flooding from northeastern
KS/southeastern NE into northwestern MO and possibly southwestern
IA. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through 14Z
with locally higher flash flood potential where overlap occurs
with wet antecedent conditions over northeastern KS due to locally
heavy rain over the past 36 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8QQxASh5-vvLIyl0bOPmA5lpyQV8ph24pEYcquvTGWv9coFrhCZ5EnwIYxnrAS6KQ6_k= hg_4xliiOI76F61lkLRs1XE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41019522 40889393 40389350 39719368 39169441=20
39049551 39189654 39689754 40029835 40609801=20
40819704=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111337
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111636-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111336Z - 111636Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms containing 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates will maintain the threat of localized flash flooding for
another few hours, primarily over portions of northeastern Kansas.

Discussion...Regional radar this morning continues to track a west
to east axis of training thunderstorms within a slow moving MCS
near the Kansas-Nebraska border. Recent MRMS estimated hourly
rainfall rates have eclipsed 2"/hr at times in the heaviest cells
at times. When combined with the slow net movement of the complex
(Corfidi Vectors are around 10-15 kts), 4-5" of rainfall led to at
least three reports of flash flood impacts in northern Kansas this
morning.

As highlighted earlier, the activity remains tied to a 35-40kt
low-level jet which is bisecting a west-east oriented cold pool
and synoptic front amid locally diffluent flow aloft. Radar
imagery also suggests the presence of a weak MCV embedded in the
complex which could locally enhance ascent in the area. Over the
next few hours, the RAP suggests 30-35 kts of 850 mb inflow
bisecting the west-east boundary could maintain the complex for a
few more hours, even with modest instability in place (~500 J/kg
MUCAPE). Much of the overnight CAM guidance has struggled with the
placement and intensity of this complex. However, the ARW seems to
have a better handle on the current activity and suggests the
training axis could persist for the next few hours. As such, the
threat of localized flash flooding will persist this morning, with
an additional 1-2" of rain possible.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7JDOHnwHVyoR9jvHIv4Dnizxwzt84oyH6DeI-4eZAhUKsKh7HBFJN6Ci6MbF7c57gFaW= ya8_oxZmjL-r0Fiq-jZ10xE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 40259601 40219520 40019439 39599433 39489490=20
39379618 39389653 39449696 39759714 39979690=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120226-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112026Z - 120226Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
are possible into this evening, which could lead to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A region of 850 hPa confluence is slowly moving
across western TX. Convection across the TX Big Bend is sending
out an outflow boundary to the east. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25". An incoming shortwave is moving across northwest
Mexico, enhancing difluence aloft and increasing the effective
bulk shear to 25-45 kts. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg, and rising.

With time, the area of 850 hPa confluence edges eastward across
portions of the TX Big Bend, Trans Pecos, and northwest TX. The
GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies that increasing convective
coverage and intensity should maximize in the 00z-03z time frame.=20
The shifting of the low-level confluence axis should keep amounts
from becoming particularly extreme. The available ingredients
suggest that hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to
4" would be possible in this environment. Since Flash Flood
Guidance is modest, widely scattered flash flooding impacts are
considered possible. Urban areas and locations with minimal top
soil in western portions of South-Central TX would be most
sensitive to these rainfall rates/amounts.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6S6CodPXk1xunr7JwSe-qfaJRSzvcJUN_gfh9rSEMdEsInWsF0bToaBGQrG4Q__GFerO= bHIbaYGzFZOD7tsUELiUuZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34550074 34309932 33279892 32129929 31020003=20
29800112 29510153 29590244 29080278 28910311=20
29070379 29560431 31090307 33270244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120257
FFGMPD
TXZ000-120715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into the
Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120252Z - 120715Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms is likely to produce areas of
flash flooding from portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into
the Edwards Plateau over the next 4-5 hours. Peak hourly rainfall
could exceed 2 or 3 inches at times.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0230Z showed a broken line
of strong convection extending from near SJT to the Rio Grande,
roughly halfway between 6R6 and DRT. This line has been
propagating slowly toward the east but northern portions of the
line have been quicker to translate east compared to southern
portions. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall briefly exceeded 2 inches
along the Rio Grande in Val Verde County within the past hour due
to training as the NNE to SSW line orientation aligns with the
mean steering flow.

Large scale ascent ahead of an upper trough axis tracking across
AZ/NM and northwestern Mexico will continue over central TX
overnight and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast to remain in place
(higher values to the south) which should help to fuel intense
cores of heavy rain. A strengthening low level jet with speeds of
30-40 kt, oriented parallel to the Rio Grande, will act to
transport moisture into the ongoing complex with the slowest
movement of the convective line likely to remain near the Rio
Grande, though brief hangups farther north will continue to remain
possible, supportive of SSW to NNE training. The moisture rich
environment with PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches and increasingly
divergent/diffluent flow ahead of the upper trough will aid lift
and allow hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but locally exceeding
2 or perhaps 3 inches at times. While the best potential for the
highest rain rates will remain toward the south, these higher
rates may overlap with portions of the Edwards Plateau which
contain greater sensitivity to flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8TCPlAIuJOCoKdzncLt3D4dOp7-uC7Z02-DnORb5M7WF4hNu72dCxZYm4zIwjG3KZecP= Ar1IoDWt7NLkNFlA8tY8-OM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31779963 31379895 30349869 29649894 28929998=20
28780081 29060090 29510140 29640177 30060169=20
31190070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120421
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-120920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...north-central TX into south-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120419Z - 120920Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible from north-central TX into south-central
OK through 09Z. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches (locally higher)
will be possible with 2 to 4 inches in 2-3 hours.

DISCUSSION...04Z radar imagery showed the northern portion of a
convective line moving into the Edwards Plateau was getting
slightly better organized over the past hour as it moved eastward
across I-20. Instability was on the weak side with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE estimated via SPC mesoanalysis data and the 00Z FWD
sounding, along with PWs near 1.5 inches near and south of the Red
River. Water vapor imagery showed a couple of weaker vorticity
maxima over western TX, ahead of the main upper level shortwave
trough axis across northwestern Mexico which will continue to
provide ascent into the weakly unstable airmass downstream across
central TX into OK tonight.

RAP forecast guidance showed favorably diffluent flow aloft
maintaining over central TX into southern OK through 12Z Sunday.
Expectations are for the current axis of thunderstorms to continue
slowly advancing NNE and E ahead of the upper forcing to the west,
with transient axes of training helping to support 1 to 2+ in/hr
rain rates and possible flash flooding. While the main concern for
higher rates will be with the leading edge of the convective line,
there will be some potential for locally higher rates/training to
refocus to the west of the line as it shifts downstream due to the
diffluent flow aloft and an upstream impulse advancing
northeastward toward the Trans Pecos region of western TX as seen
on water vapor imagery.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_-Q2hwEx7KarPBlHVSKjNr9BaEBTzQF2g4CKp3yUTtW7BuT45-6zIl9IGBqLsyjXz7B= olzEoDsYjDrWAyUfbyocJiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35979748 35879671 35639634 35089609 34309618=20
33629639 32879660 31959737 31309902 31389998=20
32180015 33440001 34719940 35699834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120831
FFGMPD
TXZ000-121330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...Middle Rio Grande Valley into central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120828Z - 121330Z

SUMMARY...While the threat is not certain, the potential for at
least localized flash flooding will continue across the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX this morning. The
possibility of peak hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will linger
through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...08Z radar imagery showed a weakening squall line over
central TX, moving east toward I-35, north of Austin, where a
relative lull in instability was estimated over central TX via 08Z
SPC mesoanalysis data (peaking near 500 J/kg MLCAPE) while
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained west of I-35 and south of I-10
within the middle Rio Grande Valley. The orientation of the
remnant squall line or outflow boundary was from NE to SW across
the Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, generally
aligned with the mean steering flow, resulting in less forward
motion for the southern portion of the outflow boundary. Isolated
convective activity was observed north of the outflow boundary and
south of the Rio Grande over northern Coahuila's Serranias del
Burro.

VAD wind plots showed that 35-40 kt of 850 mb southerly inflow
remained over the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Edwards Plateau
and atop the rain-cooled outflow boundary. Meanwhile, water vapor
imagery showed an approaching lead shortwave trough over the Big
Bend Country, advancing northeastward. Lift ahead of this feature
was evidenced by the recent shower/thunderstorm development over
northern Coahuila. It seems plausible that additional development
may occur along the southwestern flank of outflow, tied to the
eastward translating MCS over central TX with mean steering flow
supporting training from SW to NE, within the lingering
instability max. Aloft, a 90-110 kt upper level jet streak is
forecast to cross the Rio Grande and advance into western OK
through the morning hours, placing favorable right-entrance region
ascent over the Edwards Plateau. In addition, RAP forecasts showed
largely uninhibited MLCAPE returning northward back across eastern
portions of the Edwards Plateau and the I-35 corridor this morning
due to continued low level moisture transport. Therefore, while
coverage of additional thunderstorms remains unclear, at least a
localized flash flood threat will continue over the middle Rio
Grande Valley into portions of central TX through at least 13Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3FlNpW6BRCKRKImp4hH3qvBATr_8e3WL0zq0GV47pVlRjal9jyjHcjYCG8Ay8XtKy5l= 5F2VyGGL6b2WxpXiEWjjrEo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31999652 31529594 30669610 30109658 29399760=20
28769895 28629991 28650054 28770069 29250104=20
29710163 30460033 31119904 31969747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121619
FFGMPD
TXZ000-122217-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121617Z - 122217Z

Summary...Increasing potential for flash flooding this afternoon
as thunderstorms containing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates develop in the
next 2-3 hours and congeal into an MCS. Locally significant flash
flooding is possible, especially atop sensitive urban areas in the
region.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are showing increased
development across South-Central Texas late this morning as a very
moist airmass continues to destabilize. An intense, localized
cluster of thunderstorms near Gonzales county recently exhibited
2.5-3"/hr rainfall rates according to MRMS and KEWX. When combined
with slow forward motions around 20 kts, a corridor of FFG
exceedance was noted over the last 15 minutes.=20

These early storms are tapping into a very favorable environment
for efficient heavy rainfall production; 12Z RAOB from BRO and
ACARS profiles from AUS and SAT depict a deep moist layer from the
surface to 750 mb (PWAT of 1.7-1.8"), tall instability profiles
characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and WBZ heights over
3500 m. An inversion above the moist layer has thus far suppressed
more widespread development, although this is expected to weaken
over time as large scale ascent strengthens over the next few
hours while the column continues to moisten.

As such, thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage and
intensity over the next few hours. By 17-18z, the 12z CAM suite is
in good agreement for this activity to congeal into an MCS
containing training thunderstorms along a NE-SW axis -- possibly
along a remnant cold pool evident in surface obs. Forecast Corfidi
vectors near 10 kts suggest this complex will be quite slow to
move once it develops, in turn lengthening the residence time of
2-3"/hr rainfall rates within the strongest individual cells.
While the area has been dry according to NASA SPoRT soil moisture
percentiles, the risk of flash flooding is expected to increase
over the next 6 hours as 3-6" fall in the main axis of training.
Significant flash flooding is possible should this fall over a
sensitive urban area.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6l5fxvgg0Ga24XrcAiL7fdIFH_5gslDM_qZveZxQ_cc0YwW17qlWHwCr4bDlkiesKVsA= EMVZR837bFWVyXMVWomDxKs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31379590 30859516 29989564 29049725 28959831=20
29579882 30369847 31079733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0097
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122016Z - 130216Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of central TX. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding over partially saturated soils.

Discussion...The combination of shortwaves aloft crossing the
TX/OK border and northern Mexico have led to a difluent pattern
aloft across the region. Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.8"
per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of ~50 kts exists. ML CAPE is
around 2000 J/kg (higher to the west and lower to the east).

Inflow at 850 hPa slowly backs with time as the upper level
shortwave in northern MX approaches, which along with no
additional eastward progress in the instability gradient should
hold up forward forward propagation to the northeast. The 12z
GFS-based Galvez-Davison index implies that the current convective
uptick maximizes in the 21-00z period before slowly fading
thereafter in this area. Both the 12z HREF and 12z REFS have a
heavy rainfall signal across the region, though of differing
magnitudes. Given the above ingredients which favor mesocyclone
formation and cell training, along with the possibility that
storms of different levels of organization could merge, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. Given the
recently compromised flash flood guidance values due to recent
heavy rainfall, scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8j2UxM1SGtHNsq_QI1ob82WzX2FdtDrZMFk4nPqkt6h33-miTPan9qw8F2P0QPMkg4eY= Z1hEz4csPMkB4OnF9cs_Ej8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32359813 32339732 31189682 29479732 29309826=20
30019894 31669899=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130259-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0098
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122059Z - 130259Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with some level of organization will
continue to attempt to train into this evening. Hourly amounts to
3" with additional local totals to 5" are possible, which could
lead to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have been moving
east-northeast inland of the Middle & Upper TX Coasts near the
tail end of an MCV moving through portions of MO, which shows up
as an eastward branch of the 850 hPa inflow/convergence. Earlier
this afternoon, hourly rain amounts were quite high, though
they've settled back towards 2.5-3" as of late. Precipitable
water values are 1.8-2" per GPS data. ML CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts which is organizing convection.

Both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF are at least a county too far
inland with this convective activity. While their six hour
probabilities show a tendency for the activity to approach the
TX/LA border, the REFS hourly probabilities in particular are
fairly far to the east/too quick when compared to recent radar
reflectivity imagery. A combination of cell training and embedded
mesocyclones appear to be the main cause for heavy rainfall in
this region, though merging convection cannot be ruled out could
any cells form south of the band and approach it. ML CAPE
supports the idea of this activity making a run for the LA border,
but with decreasing instability with time, there could be a
tendency for increased forward propagation/decreased precipitation
amounts with time. With somewhat higher instability to the north
the farther east you go in this region, thunderstorm activity may
try to correct towards the 18z HREF solution and edge a little
more northward as well. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional
local totals to 5" remain possible, which could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5nMBgV5t9cCt79LlQETJWpm7K6GjQ240BRaV-E-svg4sWr9O9XPQSrTHrurNmmfxbRjA= aPMRiPqOIy0SlzDTLr2vtxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31319378 30159385 29649511 29629620 29979635=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130324
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 130322Z - 130700Z

Summary...A small, slow moving cluster of thunderstorms is
expected to maintain peak rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr and
localized flash flooding across portions of central TX over the
next 2-4 hours. Afterward, eastward translation and weakening is
anticipated.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery showed a small thunderstorm cluster
over and just west of the Colorado River in San Saba and Llano
counties. This cluster has had a history of backbuilding and
training with observed hourly rainfall of 2.5 inches and
MRMS-derived estimates locally over 3 inches over San Saba County.
It was located just on the cool side of an elongated, remnant
outflow boundary from earlier on Sunday that extended from near
New Braunfels into the Hill Country and northward across I-20,
just east of Abilene. Water vapor imagery showed a number of
vorticity maxima embedded within the WSW flow aloft. At 03Z, a
more notable vorticity max was located just northeast of San
Antonio, with another more subtle feature over Concho and Menard
counties, west of the ongoing thunderstorms.

Expectations are for low level flow overrunning the outflow to
continue to support thunderstorms over portions of central TX
within a moderately unstable airmass characterized by 1500 to
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches (SPC mesoanalysis).
However, passage of the vorticity maxima/shortwave features aloft
should cause the ongoing activity to shift east in another couple
of hours while additional development occurs downstream toward the
east, with eventual weakening as increasing CIN is encountered
toward the east. There is some uncertainty with exactly how long
the backbuilding signature will continue over San Saba and Llano
counties, but current thinking is that the passage of the embedded
impulses aloft should disrupt the ongoing activity within the next
2-3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8pcpmXpFhE2czLV347fybNztipkC3atoiLr2jFxkU4IQKY_67vA06heOHYA0UdhIf3n0= ErkfDhUi8YwEmk5Z5Ni57eA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32069713 31929682 31659668 31359660 31129663=20
30859695 30689738 30599828 30679895 30929919=20
31089929 31379914 31579875 31879812 32039757=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132142
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Much of Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and
U.P. of Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132140Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming along a warm frontal boundary will
organize into training lines of storms, over an area of saturated
soils through this evening. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... Several areas of convection have begun to form along
a warm frontal boundary across much of Wisconsin and southeast
Minnesota this afternoon. These storms are being fed by moisture
influx with PWATs around 1 inch along the front, but over 1.3
inches along the Illinois/Wisconsin border, based on the latest
SPC Mesoanalysis. CAMs guidance is in good agreement that the
storms will continue to grow upscale into an MCS that will then
support training storms propagating eastward across central and
northern Wisconsin. A cold front shown across northern Minnesota
will press southeastward and eventually help to push the MCS
southward with time.

Soils across Minnesota and Wisconsin are nearly saturated due to
recent rainfall and around the U.P. of Michigan, recent snowmelt
as shown on NASA SPoRT imagery. With above average river levels
and nearly saturated soils across nearly all of Wisconsin, almost
all of the rainfall expected from this forecast MCS will convert
to runoff quickly. FFGs across this region on average are around
1.5 inches/1 hour, 2 inches/3 hours, and 2.5 inches/6 hours. These
values are likely to be exceeded with multiple rounds of training
storms expected late this afternoon and this evening. The cells
south of the Twin Cities have a history of rainfall rates
exceeding 2 inches/hour at times, showing that the atmosphere is
capable of rates exceeding these aforementioned FFG values.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7G1XSLTDBBKEgE6KnC6HjiSFk-T-6U4Bgr0ABoBXm8-JrDZHBYlj134353NlsdE9nf1H= lWiBku11TKmoojCTL9tJ1SM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46828894 46588739 45458680 44468747 43548763=20
43368904 43429003 43509140 43739228 44039312=20
44719364 45179376 45829361 46349312 46619141=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132331
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132330Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY... Clusters of storms are forming across portions of
southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening. Localized
rain rates to 2" per hour could cause isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION... Convective coverage has rapidly increased across
portions of southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa this evening as
part of a broader low pressure center and warm frontal system,
tapping into Gulf moisture riding up to the south and east of
these features. Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour have
been observed on radar, with somewhat moistened soils in the area
from recent rainfall, based on NASA SPoRT imagery.

CAMs guidance is in poor agreement in this area, with none of the
guidance suggesting convective coverage would be as robust in this
area than has already formed. For those that have a hint of the
southern extent of this convection (NAMnest, ARW to a lesser
extent, and HRRR to an even lesser extent), all suggest much
faster and more eastward motions to these storms than have already
been occurring. Thus, with slower and more northward storm
motions, towards areas where storms have already formed across far
southern Minnesota, expect more robust training and heavier
rainfall rates than the guidance is suggesting, favoring more
potential for flash flooding over the next few hours.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6X1tqeZU-LUfkuQOxQe1ZCk91388CwJGlSqrn-Xsd_p7IlWiLuBHXrVEhhbbR6vhNbAj= BNCnIg_odYgJqLuN6203qEk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45369378 44999377 44649360 44179331 43929301=20
43769257 43649215 43449216 43129229 42679296=20
42619447 42549518 42579577 42809622 43209651=20
43539693 44139664 44909551 45309470 45349421=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140347
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...southern WI into central/northern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140344Z - 140800Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely from southern WI
into central/northern Lower MI over the next 4-5 hours. Saturated
to nearly saturated soils are expected to be a contributing factor
to excess runoff from rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr.

Discussion...0320Z radar imagery across the Upper Midwest showed
an MCS with an elongated convective line on its southern flank,
oriented west-east from the MN/WI/IA tri-state region into
northwestern Lower MI. The cluster of thunderstorms were located
along a quasi-stationary front that extended west to east through
central WI/MI with 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over northeastern
IA, lowest over Lower MI) estimated just south of the boundary per
03Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Infrared imagery showed cloud tops
continued to cool with divergence aloft aided within the
right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt upper level jet streak
positioned over Lake Superior into southern Quebec. 850 mb VAD
wind data showed 50-60 kt of SSW flow from eastern IA into
northern IL and southern WI, aiding rapid moisture transport
across Lake Michigan into Lower MI with upstream moisture over the
Midwest between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.

As the main surface low along the front in northwestern IA
advances ENE tonight, continued southerly flow ahead of the low
into the ongoing complex of storms should sustain convection
within the unstable airmass for several more hours. Mean cell
motions from the W to SW will interact with the southerly low
level inflow allowing for segments of the line to advance
southeastward at times. Cell mergers and training within the
linear segments of the MCS will attain rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
at times with an overall movement toward the east through 08Z.
Most soils across the region are saturated due to snowmelt and/or
recent rainfall, with additional heavy rainfall more quickly
translating into runoff compared to average. Therefore, areas of
flash flooding are likely to occur across southern WI into Lower
MI over the next 4-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7L1O-mnGFqvdnGQKawceVca5wKPKEE_53aZyZ3QByeXtRcHpH_iNlJdj0PPvcB--9qxe= 996tFkVy9okNckkMMmvxAfw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...GRB...GRR...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45818459 45288327 44528305 43748367 42798585=20
42498773 42528950 42719070 43409120 44019101=20
44319034 44578902 45028737 45468637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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