ACUS01 KWNS 192002
SWODY1
SPC AC 192000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged.

..Squitieri.. 03/19/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026/

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure over the Southeast and a dry airmass over the
Gulf Basin will result in a persistent stable environment east of
the Rockies, precluding thunderstorm activity. A drier airmass is
also expected across south FL compared to previous days. Offshore
thunderstorms may approach the east-central FL coast tonight.
However, meager instability and nebulous forcing will likely limit
any thunderstorm coverage on land to less than 10 percent.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200026
SWODY1
SPC AC 200024

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. tonight.


..Darrow.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260536
SWODY1
SPC AC 260534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough
topping the dominant southwestern anticyclone over southern WY.
Latest lightning data supports this with isolated thunderstorms
currently noted from southern WY into the NE Panhandle. 00z model
guidance suggests this feature will advance into the Mid-MO Valley
by 18z, then progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 27/00z. As this
short wave advances east, surface ridging will build south across
the Plains and force a pronounced cold front across much of IA by
early afternoon with the sharp boundary settling south across
northern IL as a weak surface wave tracks toward southern Lower MI.

Deep westerly flow should allow surface temperatures to warm quickly
into the lower-mid 80s south of the front over IL/western IN. Even
so, convective temperatures may struggle to be breached until late
afternoon. Current thinking is upper 50s to near 60 F dew points
should return to this region prior to frontal passage, thus modest
MLCAPE is expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest weak
capping may hold across the warm sector so it's not entirely clear
how much activity will develop well ahead of the front. However,
strong frontal forcing will easily encourage thunderstorm
development and convection will evolve within a strongly sheared
environment. Profiles favor organized rotating updrafts and
supercells are expected, especially early in the convective cycle.
Given the strength of the front there is an expectation for storm
mergers and line segments to evolve. Very large hail is possible,
especially with early supercell development. As a frontal MCS
evolves, damaging winds are expected to be more common with the LLJ strengthening into the evening hours across the OH Valley. Some
tornado threat also exists with storms that are not undercut by the
surging cold front, both with supercells and within the extensive
frontal squall line. This activity will spread toward the Ohio River
where gradual weakening is expected during the late-night hours.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261248
SWODY1
SPC AC 261246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds all appear
likely.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Upper ridging will remain suppressed over the Southwest and southern
Plains today as rather strong westerly mid/upper-level jets
overspread the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A weak mid-level shortwave
trough that has encouraged occasional lighting flashes with
convection across the NE Panhandle earlier this morning will
approach the mid MS Valley/Midwest by late this afternoon. A cold
front is forecast to move southward through the day across
IL/IN/southern Lower MI/OH as a weak surface reflection develops
eastward into central PA through this evening. A partially
modified/shallow Gulf airmass will stream northward ahead of this
front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to remain in the
mid 50s to no more than low 60s.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly develop along
the length of the front from central IL eastward into IN, southern
Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating erodes
lingering convective inhibition. Even though low-level moisture
should remain fairly shallow/limited ahead of the front, a narrow
corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE (locally stronger possible) is
forecast to be present by mid to late afternoon given sufficient
daytime heating and steepening mid-level lapse rates. Strong flow of
50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer and related deep-layer shear of
similar magnitude will support organized updrafts and supercells
with this initial development. Large to very large hail (2+ inches
in diameter possible) should occur as long as a supercell mode can
be maintained.

A fairly quick transition to more linear structures appears likely
given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat for scattered
to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley into western/central
PA through the late afternoon and evening. Given the forecast
strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated gusts of 75+ mph may
occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes as well with both
supercells and embedded mesocirculations within the linear clusters,
although a well-mixed boundary layer should increase LCLs this
afternoon as surface temperatures generally warm into the 70s and
80s. Some guidance suggests a locally greater threat for tornadoes
(perhaps a couple strong) may exist across parts of northern/central
IN/OH with any supercells that can be maintained along/ahead of the
cold front, as low-level shear should be greater across these areas
in association with a 35-50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet.
However, confidence in this scenario occurring was too low to
include higher tornado probabilities with this update.

Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is
lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap.
However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front
this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE
conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large
hail. Have made only minor changes to the Slight Risk across this
area based on latest guidance trends.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261610
SWODY1
SPC AC 261608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds all appear
likely.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a flattened upper ridge
centered over the south-central U.S. with strong westerly
mid/upper-level flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes. A mid-level
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will move quickly
east-southeast into the Upper Midwest and act to suppress mid-level
heights across the Midwest/Great Lakes through tonight. Surface
analysis this morning showed a weak low over eastern IA with a
west-east oriented frontal zone extending east across the southern
Great Lakes. If a weak surface reflection is maintained and
develops east across the southern Great Lakes through this evening,
it may notably influence severe potential within a focused corridor
late this afternoon through this evening. The aforementioned front
will gradually push south and serve as the primary impetus for storm development.

Beneath a capping inversion, moistening will continue with surface
dewpoints rising into the 56-62 deg F range from the mid MS Valley
east into western PA. Upwards of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is likely by
mid afternoon south of the front. A belt of strong, westerly 50-65
kt 700-mb flow is forecast to move from IA and expand spatially
across the warm sector through early evening. This increase in flow
will act to elongate hodographs despite mainly veered southwesterly
surface flow. Recent convection-allowing model guidance varies
considerably on the depiction of cellular versus mostly linear
clusters evolving in the first few hours of the convective life
cycle. Time-lagged HRRR would imply a more spatially and
numerically extensive supercell hail and tornado risk than most of
the 12z HREF HRW members showing less risk of these hazards. The
tornado risk could focus with potential supercells near a weak low
and where surface flow would locally back to southerly. However,
confidence is muted regarding this specific scenario.

Regardless, current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly
develop along the length of the front from central IL eastward into
IN, southern Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating
erodes lingering convective inhibition. A mix of supercells and
organized linear clusters will evolve with large to very large hail
possible. A fairly quick transition to more linear structures
appears likely given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat
for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more
clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley
into western/central PA through the late afternoon and evening.
Given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated
gusts of 75+ mph may occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes
as well with both supercells and embedded mesocirculations within
the linear clusters.

Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is
lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap.
However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front
this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE
conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large
hail.

..Smith/Hart.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO INDIANA...OHIO...AND EXTREME WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very
large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be
possible.

...From northern MO across IL, IN, OH and into western PA...
The air mass continues to heat and destabilize this afternoon ahead
of a cold front, which extends from southern Lower MI westward
toward the MO/IA border at 20Z. The air mass remains capped for
surface-based parcels, but clouds will continue to develop along the
boundary with eventual severe storm development along and behind
much of the front. Stronger heating / larger temp-dew spreads
suggest a lesser tornado risk for western areas, while farther east
conditions appear a bit more favorable with more low-level SRH /
with lake breeze effects. GPS water vapor sensors also show higher
values of PWAT over southern IN and KY which will lift northeastward
across IN/OH/PA later today.

In all areas, steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear
beneath northwest flow aloft will support supercells producing
damaging hail. This may occur in both elevated cells north of the
undercutting front, and ahead of it.

For more information see mesoscale discussion #0291.

..Jewell.. 03/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026/

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a flattened upper ridge
centered over the south-central U.S. with strong westerly
mid/upper-level flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes. A mid-level
shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will move quickly
east-southeast into the Upper Midwest and act to suppress mid-level
heights across the Midwest/Great Lakes through tonight. Surface
analysis this morning showed a weak low over eastern IA with a
west-east oriented frontal zone extending east across the southern
Great Lakes. If a weak surface reflection is maintained and
develops east across the southern Great Lakes through this evening,
it may notably influence severe potential within a focused corridor
late this afternoon through this evening. The aforementioned front
will gradually push south and serve as the primary impetus for storm development.

Beneath a capping inversion, moistening will continue with surface
dewpoints rising into the 56-62 deg F range from the mid MS Valley
east into western PA. Upwards of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is likely by
mid afternoon south of the front. A belt of strong, westerly 50-65
kt 700-mb flow is forecast to move from IA and expand spatially
across the warm sector through early evening. This increase in flow
will act to elongate hodographs despite mainly veered southwesterly
surface flow. Recent convection-allowing model guidance varies
considerably on the depiction of cellular versus mostly linear
clusters evolving in the first few hours of the convective life
cycle. Time-lagged HRRR would imply a more spatially and
numerically extensive supercell hail and tornado risk than most of
the 12z HREF HRW members showing less risk of these hazards. The
tornado risk could focus with potential supercells near a weak low
and where surface flow would locally back to southerly. However,
confidence is muted regarding this specific scenario.

Regardless, current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly
develop along the length of the front from central IL eastward into
IN, southern Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating
erodes lingering convective inhibition. A mix of supercells and
organized linear clusters will evolve with large to very large hail
possible. A fairly quick transition to more linear structures
appears likely given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat
for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more
clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley
into western/central PA through the late afternoon and evening.
Given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated
gusts of 75+ mph may occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes
as well with both supercells and embedded mesocirculations within
the linear clusters.

Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is
lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap.
However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front
this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE
conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large
hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030558
SWODY1
SPC AC 030557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AN SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

A midlevel trough, emanating from a previous TPV, will move across
the northern US today and tonight. This feature will maintain a
modest surface cyclone that will progress northeastward from central
Kansas to southern Wisconsin by Saturday morning. As the surface low
lifts northeast, a west-east orientate warm front will push
northward toward Lower Michigan.

... Northern Missouri and Southern Iowa ...

As the surface cyclone lifts northeast in response to increasing
pressure falls in advance of the midlevel trough, southerly winds
will draw low-level moisture northward, with low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints possible along and south of the aforementioned warm front.
Residual steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will
contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values
approach 3000 J/kg). Despite the low-level jet weakening through the
day, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and
south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline.
However, given persistent warm-air advection/isentropic ascent
associated with the advancing warm front, concerns abound regarding
the number of storms, storm interactions, and an overall messy storm
mode evolution.

If a more discrete mode emerges, the overall kinematic wind field
would support sustained supercells and an increased tornado threat
along both the Pacific Front/dryline and the northward moving warm
front. Very large hail would also be possible. If a more linear mode
emerges, the primary severe hazard would focus more on strong winds
and a QLCS tornado threat. Of note, even with a more linear mode,
uncertainty in the coverage of potential strong convective winds is
low owing to a weakening low-level jet and storm interactions. The
Level 3/Enhanced was kept at this time, but the need for a
wind-driven Level 3/Enhanced will be revisited in subsequent
forecasts.

... Central Illinois east into Ohio and north into Lower Michigan
...

Thunderstorms will be possible along the northward moving warm front
during the afternoon on Friday. Although there is uncertainty
regarding the number/coverage of storms, the overall thermodynamic
and kinematic fields would support the potential for hail and wind
along and north of the warm front. Across the western portions of
this area, a brief tornado threat would exist as any discrete
supercells traverse through the warm frontal zone.

... Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri southwest toward Northwest
Texas...

Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
pushes east into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time,
additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle
perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east, and have pronounced weakness in the 3-6 km AGL range. The
combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the
convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the
main severe hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out with any
discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear
segments.

... Southwest Texas ...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon/evening
along the higher terrain and a surface dryline. Wind fields will
support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds. However uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage
precludes a categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk.

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031242
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are possible late this
afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into southern Iowa
and north-central Illinois with any sustained supercells that
develop. Storms are otherwise expected to evolve into an extensive
line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas,
with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds.

...Northern Missouri/southern Iowa/north-central Illinois...
The shortwave trough emerging from the north-central High Plains
this morning will spread east-northeastward toward the Upper Midwest
through early Saturday. This will be accompanied by a strengthening
(70+ kt) belt of cyclonically curved mid/high-level westerlies. A
surface low across the south-central Plains will transition
northeastward toward the Iowa/Illinois border vicinity tonight,
while a warm front shifts northward from northern Missouri into Iowa
and across northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, where low/middle
60s F dewpoints will become common across the Midwest near and south
of the warm front.

Within the warm sector, residually steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg
(and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east
of the Pacific cold front/dryline. While the likelihood/extent of
semi-discrete supercellular development remains a bit uncertain, the
main potential for such will increase during the afternoon near the
triple point around the Kansas/Missouri/Iowa border vicinity and
eastward, potentially as far east into western/north-central
Illinois in vicinity of the northward-shifting warm front.
Semi-discrete development would offer tornado/very large hail
potential, as well as a possible multi-round scenario of severe
storms in some of this corridor via a more prevalent line of storms
during the evening, with a damaging wind risk and some continued
tornado potential as the low-level restrengthens.

...Northern Indiana to western portions of Pennsylvania/New York...
Relatively strong westerlies atop the frontal zone, which will be
more southeast-progressive as a cold front with eastward extent,
will support at least isolated severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into evening, including a few supercells regionally.

...Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri to Northwest Texas...
Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into
Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline
advances southeastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the
same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across
Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields
indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north
and east. The combination of this wind field and the widespread
nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and
damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado could
occur with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any
organized linear segments.

...Southwest Texas...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the dry line and near some of the
mountains/higher terrain. Wind fields will support supercells
capable of producing large hail and localized severe-caliber winds.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031608
SWODY1
SPC AC 031606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.

...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.

...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.

..Hart/Wendt.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031955
SWODY1
SPC AC 031954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into an extensive line this
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are also
possible in any supercells that can form ahead of the line over
parts of Iowa, Missouri, and central Illinois.

...20z update KS, MO IA and IL...
Scattered thunderstorm development was ongoing this afternoon ahead
of a weak surface low an associated cold front over the MO Valley.
To the east, a broad and unstable warm sector exists south of a quasi-stationary front extending into eastern MO and IL. Moderate
buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercells.
Damaging winds and hail remain the most likely near the cold front
as it moves eastward with a linear storm modes. A few tornadoes are
also possible with more discrete cells and backed surface winds
along the warm front farther east. The primary update to the
forecast was to remove thunder and severe probabilities behind the
cold front, otherwise the severe risk remains as is.

...Southern KS, OK and into TX...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely this afternoon and
evening along the advancing cold front from southern KS, across much
of OK and ahead of a dryline into west-central TX. South of the
primary upper trough and stronger flow aloft, overall forcing will
be weaker. Still, forecast soundings and observation trends show
moderate destabilization and sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercells and organized clusters/line segments. Hail (some 2+ in)
is possible with initial supercells before upscale growth is
expected to take place with the surging cold front.

A locally more favorable zone for large hail, damaging gusts and a
tornado or two may develop across parts of central and southern OK
if semi discrete supercells or stronger bowing structures can become organized/maintained this afternoon/evening.

...OH Valley...
A moist and unstable air mass will support scattered thunderstorms
across the OH valley this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts are
possible with multi-cell storms/clusters amid modest vertical shear.
Storms should weaken this evening with the loss of diurnal heating.

..Lyons.. 04/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026/

...MO/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over northeast KS. This low
will track northeastward across southern IA today, with the
associated warm front lifting northward into northern IL. The air
mass in the warm sector of the low will be relatively moist and
unstable with dewpoints in the lower 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values
of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
surface low in IA, and more widely scattered storms eastward along
the warm front. A few supercells are possible across this region,
with a concern for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the
most intense cells.

...MO/KS/OK/TX...
An extensive line of thunderstorms is expected to form along the
cold front this afternoon from western MO into southeast KS and much
of OK. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE will be present ahead of
the storms, along with sufficient deep-layer shear for
rotating/bowing storm structures. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concern, but a tornado or two are also
possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130522
SWODY1
SPC AC 130520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...South Florida...

Neutral-weak height rises are forecast across the FL Peninsula
during the day1 period as midlevel flow gradually weakens across low
latitudes, including the eastern Gulf basin/south FL. Latest
diagnostic data depicts a weak surface boundary extends across the
southern tip of the peninsula, and this feature is forecast to
migrate toward the western tip of the south FL Peninsula by the end
of the period. Modest daytime heating should contribute to weak
buoyancy and scattered convection is expected to develop within this
weak-flow regime. Forecast lapse rates/instability appear too weak
to warrant a meaningful risk for severe thunderstorms today.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131214
SWODY1
SPC AC 131212

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...NY/PA...
a fast-moving and well-defined shortwave trough is indicated over
WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes and affect parts
of PA/NY later this afternoon and evening. Strong low-level warm
advection and lift will aid in the development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms over southern Ontario and parts of
central/western NY/PA. While lightning activity will likely be
sparse, strong low-level winds and steepening mid-level lapse rates
could result in gusty showers and thunderstorms with isolated severe
winds possible.

...FL...
A few afternoon thunderstorms are expected today over central/south
FL, along and ahead of a surface cold front. Weak winds aloft
should preclude severe storms.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131943
SWODY1
SPC AC 131942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/gusty winds may occur with low-topped convection across parts
of western/central Pennsylvania and vicinity this afternoon, but
organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...20Z Update...
No changes are necessary to the ongoing forecast. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 03/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026/

...Western/Central Pennsylvania...
An upper trough with associated 100-125 kt mid-level jet will move
eastward today from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Rather strong low/mid-level flow will overspread the upper OH Valley
into western/central PA and vicinity by this afternoon ahead of a
surface cold front. Low-level moisture is expected to remain very
limited, with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s across this
area as of late morning/early afternoon. Some modest increase in
boundary-layer moisture and cold temperatures aloft attendant to the
upper trough may support weak MUCAPE with modest daytime heating.
One or more bands of low-topped convection may develop and pose some
threat for strong/gusty winds beyond the already enhanced background
gradient wind field. However, the meager moisture and instability
forecast this afternoon suggest that any severe risk will likely be
very isolated, so low wind probabilities have not been included with
this update.

...Central/Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula along
and south of a remnant front. This convection may preferentially
form along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze in a weakly unstable
environment. Poor lapse rates aloft (reference 12Z KEY and 00Z MFL
observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds noted on recent
KAMX/KBYX VWPs will likely limit overall updraft strength and
organization. While small hail and/or gusty winds could occur with
the stronger cores that develop, the overall severe threat should
remain low.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140037
SWODY1
SPC AC 140036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early this evening from parts of
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, and in
south-central Florida.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the eastern U.S tonight.
Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern Pennsylvania into far southern New York, as the left exit
region of a very strong mid-level jet passes. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible early this evening within a moist and unstable
airmass in south-central Florida. No severe threat is expected in
the U.S. through daybreak on Saturday.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200532
SWODY1
SPC AC 200530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late this afternoon into the evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley...

Dominant upper ridge will hold across the southwestern parts of the
CONUS through the day1 period, but this feature will influence most
of the western US by forcing stronger westerlies to near the
international border/Great Lakes region. Latest model guidance
suggests a weak shortwave trough will top the ridge and dig
southeast across the Great Lakes into the upper OH Valley by 21/00z.
As this occurs weak midlevel height falls will be noted across
eastern OH/PA as a surface cold front settles across western
NY-northern OH-central IN by late afternoon.

Early this morning, boundary-layer moisture is quite dry across much
of the OH Valley with only upper 30s/lower 40s surface dew points
observed. Deepening westerly flow suggests low-level moisture across
southeast MO/northern AR will advect toward the upper OH Valley,
possibly arriving prior to the frontal passage. Even so, dew points
within this source region are only in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Forecast soundings for mid afternoon suggest modest boundary-layer
heating such that 0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km
with MUCAPE around 500-700 J/kg. Current thinking is scattered
convection will develop along/ahead of the cold front by late
afternoon, then spread southeast before weakening with loss of
daytime heating. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts
and the greatest risk should be gusty winds with marginally severe
hail.

..Darrow/Chalmers.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201232
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late this afternoon into the evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians...
A prominent mid/upper-level high will remain centered over AZ and
northwest Mexico today, with upper troughing over FL and the western
Atlantic forecast to continue moving eastward. In between these
features, a low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
advance southeastward from Ontario and the Great Lakes to the upper
OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Strong northwesterly mid/upper-level flow associated with this feature will support 40-50
kt of deep-layer shear and the conditional potential for updraft
organization with any thunderstorms that can develop. However,
low-level moisture will likely remain quite limited across the upper
OH Valley, with surface dewpoints currently in the 30s only modestly
increasing by late afternoon into the mid 40s to perhaps low 50s as
modest low-level warm/moist advection of a partially modified Gulf
airmass spreads northeastward from the lower/mid MS Valley.

Even with continued concerns about the modest thermodynamic
environment (MUCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg), there still
appears to be some chance for strong thunderstorm development late
this afternoon into the evening across parts of the upper OH Valley
into the central Appalachians along/ahead of a surface cold front.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cells
that can develop and be sustained, although confidence in the
overall coverage of strong to severe convection remains low. The
loss of daytime heating and even more limited low-level moisture
with eastward extent into the central Appalachians should
spatially/temporally confine the already marginal severe threat.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201617
SWODY1
SPC AC 201615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, mainly late this
afternoon into the evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians...
Midday water-vapor imagery indicates a mid-level shortwave trough
over Lower Michigan as a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow is
maintained across the north-central U.S. eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal vicinity. This disturbance is
forecast to quickly move to the Delmarva/NJ by midnight.

The northern extent of a moisture plume, and an airmass still
undergoing modification over the Gulf Basin, will protrude northeast
into the upper OH Valley by late afternoon. Forecast guidance shows
surface dewpoints perhaps reaching near 50 deg F near the OH-WV-PA
border region towards 00z. Cold 500-mb temperatures and diurnal
heating will act to partially compensate for modest moisture and
contribute to weak buoyancy. Isolated to widely scattered
low-topped thunderstorms will probably develop along a
southeastward-moving cold front during the evening. Elongated
hodographs support updraft organization but the overall limited
moisture will act to constrain otherwise greater storm coverage.
Marginally severe hail and perhaps a couple of damaging gusts are
the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Mosier.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 201939
SWODY1
SPC AC 201937

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians this evening.

...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the level 1-MRGL risk. Ongoing rain swath with
very isolated thunder coverage should continue shifting
southeastward from the northern/central Appalachians. Severe
potential should be confined to its wake as the northern extent of a
modest boundary-layer moisture plume reaches the Upper OH Valley by
early evening. Despite latitudinal differences in guidance since 12Z
with placement of redevelopment this evening, the southern envelope
appears more probable given the degree of rain-cooled air to the
northeast. Convection should struggle to readily deepen/intensify
with such meager buoyancy. But hodograph elongation amid
northwesterly speed shear within the cloud-bearing layer will favor
a threat for isolated, marginal severe storms before convection
wanes overnight.

..Grams.. 03/20/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026/

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians...
Midday water-vapor imagery indicates a mid-level shortwave trough
over Lower Michigan as a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow is
maintained across the north-central U.S. eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic and New England coastal vicinity. This disturbance is
forecast to quickly move to the Delmarva/NJ by midnight.

The northern extent of a moisture plume, and an airmass still
undergoing modification over the Gulf Basin, will protrude northeast
into the upper OH Valley by late afternoon. Forecast guidance shows
surface dewpoints perhaps reaching near 50 deg F near the OH-WV-PA
border region towards 00z. Cold 500-mb temperatures and diurnal
heating will act to partially compensate for modest moisture and
contribute to weak buoyancy. Isolated to widely scattered
low-topped thunderstorms will probably develop along a
southeastward-moving cold front during the evening. Elongated
hodographs support updraft organization but the overall limited
moisture will act to constrain otherwise greater storm coverage.
Marginally severe hail and perhaps a couple of damaging gusts are
the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210041
SWODY1
SPC AC 210039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low the rest of tonight.

...01z Update...

Despite modest boundary-layer heating observed across the Ohio
Valley this afternoon, boundary-layer moisture has struggled to
return to this region. Surface dew points are only in the upper 40s
to near 50F across OH/KY into western PA/WV. As a result, MUCAPE is
pretty meager within only a few hundred J/kg noted across this
region. 00z soundings from ILN/PIT support this with 240 J/kg at PIT
and 130 J/kg at ILN. While deep-layer shear is strong, buoyancy will
likely remain too meager to warrant robust updrafts this evening.
Latest radar data depicts weak convection, a few flashes of
lighting, just ahead of the cold front over central Ohio. This
activity may continue to expand in areal coverage, but
aforementioned negatives suggest severe probabilities are too low to
warrant a risk this evening.

..Darrow.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270048
SWODY1
SPC AC 270047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across
parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level
flow over the southern Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a
subtle shortwave trough evident within the flow over far northwest
Illinois. At the surface, a cold front is located from central
Illinois east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near the front, extending
northward into the cooler air about 150 statute miles. The best
environment currently appears to be located from far eastern Indiana
eastward to east of Columbus, Ohio, where RAP analysis shows a
west-to-east axis of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. RAP
forecast soundings near this axis of instability have 0-6 km shear
in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
Cells are currently discrete within this environment, which will
continue to favor supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter appear likely with the more intense
supercells. In addition, low-level lapse rates are also steep, which
will support a wind-damage threat. A few gusts above 70 knots will
be possible. Also, forecast soundings within this unstable airmass
have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450 m2/s2 range,
suggesting that a tornado threat will continue with the more intense supercells. The severe threat will likely be maximized within this
corridor over the next few hours...see MCD 293. The severe threat
should expand eastward across far eastern Ohio and into western
Pennsylvania.

Further west into parts of Indiana and Illinois, the strongest
storms are currently located near and to the east of Indianapolis.
Although the storms are not as strong westward into central and
northern Illinois, convective intensity is expected to increase as
the shortwave trough moves eastward across the state, along with the
exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered severe storms are expected
to develop over the next couple of hours, and a cluster or line
could become organized...see MCD 294. Isolated severe storms will
also be possible further west into parts of Missouri and far eastern
Kansas later this evening.

..Broyles.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270552
SWODY1
SPC AC 270551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from the Ohio Valley into
North Carolina and Virginia but no severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the eastern U.S.
today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
southern Appalachians and Carolinas. Behind the front, isolated
thunderstorm development with a potential for a few strong gusts,
will be possible in weak instability this afternoon. Elsewhere
across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected today or
tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271241
SWODY1
SPC AC 271239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from North Carolina and
Virginia into the Ozark Plateau, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Recent surface analysis places an extensive cold front from just off
the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the TN Valley and
into west TX. This front is expected to continue surging southward/southeastward today as a large area of high pressure
builds into the Plains. This progression will take the front off
both the Carolina/Southeast Coast and the TX/Central Gulf Coast by
early tomorrow morning, leaving only the FL Peninsula within the
pre-frontal warm sector.

The airmass preceding the front will be modestly moist, with
dewpoints largely in the upper 50s/low 60s. When combined with
modest daytime heating, this should be enough low/mid-level moisture
to foster limited buoyancy across VA and the Carolinas, supporting
the potential for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Some
isolated surface-based development is possible along the front, but
the progressive nature of the front will lead to undercutting and
limited residence time in the warm sector. Mid-levels will not be
particularly cold but should still be sufficient for limited
elevated buoyancy behind the front. Consequently, additional
thunderstorms will remain possible behind the front as large-scale
ascent increases. NC will be on the southern edge of the stronger
flow aloft, and deep-layer vertical shear will be strong enough to
support rotating updrafts and a conditional severe risk. However,
given only modest buoyancy and relatively warm thermodynamic
profiles, most updrafts will likely be transient and shallow, not
acquiring the necessary depth and persistence to organize. Best
chance for a strong storm capable of damaging gusts is in the
vicinity of GSO and RDU in northwest NC, where slightly improved
thermodynamic are possible.

Farther southwest, some deeper convective is possible well behind
the front this afternoon as the subtle shortwave trough currently
moving into OK moves through the Ozark Plateau amid modest elevated
buoyancy. Resulting convection should be transient and shallow, but
could still augment the strong low-level flow to produce damaging
gusts. A few lightning flashes are possible with the deepest cores.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271616
SWODY1
SPC AC 271615

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.

In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.

..Smith/Thornton.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271919
SWODY1
SPC AC 271917

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected today over parts of the
Carolinas and southern Appalachians, but no severe threat is
forecast.

Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast - to
remove 10% thunder probabilities from parts of WV/KY. Isolated
lightning flashes in northwest AR are expected to remain below 10%
coverage.

..Hart.. 03/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026/

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the
northern Plains through the OH Valley and into the Northeast through
tonight. A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the
Chihuahua-Texas border as heights gradually lower as troughing
pivots slowly east across the East. The southern periphery of
stronger westerly mid and high-level flow will glance NC later
today.

In the low levels, a cold front analyzed over the Cumberland Gap
eastward to the Delmarva, will push southeast through the Carolinas
by late tonight. Strong heating ahead of the boundary and dewpoints
in the 55-60 deg F range will contribute to weak buoyancy and
steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the
front late this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast
soundings show only weak surface to 2-km flow (at or below 10-15 kt)
across the Carolina Piedmont. The weaker boundary layer flow and
weak buoyancy (few hundred J/kg SBCAPE) will likely limit overall
storm intensity. Although a strong gust or two is possible (35-50
mph), the propensity for an appreciable wind-damage risk still
appears sufficiently low at this time to preclude a categorical-risk
highlight over the Carolina Piedmont.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280058
SWODY1
SPC AC 280056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening over parts of
the Carolinas and southern Virginia, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes
region tonight, as a cold front advances southward through the
Carolinas. A few thunderstorms will be possible near and behind the
front this evening. No severe threat is forecast with this activity
or over the remainder of the continental U.S. through tonight.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040058
SWODY1
SPC AC 040056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms continue to evolve into an extensive line this evening
from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Damaging winds, hail, and
a couple of tornadoes remain possible through the overnight.

... 01Z Update ...

Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of an advancing
cold front this evening. These storms should continue to increase in
number, growing upscale into an extensive linear MCS from Northwest
Texas northeastward into southern Iowa. Despite nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer, forcing along the cold front,
MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear should
support a continued hail and wind threat into the overnight hours,
especially across the southern portion of this area where updrafts
appear to be more robust than areas farther north. Given the moist
low-levels and a modest uptick in the low-level jet, a couple of
tornadoes may still occur as well.

Additional thunderstorms have developed eastward along the warm
front draped across southern Iowa east across Illinois, Indiana,
Ohio, and Pennsylvania. MUCAPE and vertical shear decrease with
eastward extent along the warm front, organized thunderstorms within
the frontal zone should support an localized hail and wind threat
for a few more hours. A tornado or two could also be realized with
any discrete/semi-discrete cell that can increase its resonance time
in the frontal zone, especially across central Illinois where better instability and vertical shear exist.

..Marsh.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040601
SWODY1
SPC AC 040559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW YORK....

...SUMMARY...
Strong-to-severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas
northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Sporadic damaging winds
will be the most likely severe hazard throughout this corridor, with
the greatest likelihood across the Lower Great Lakes.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into
Ontario on Saturday As this happens, a surface low should lift
northward from northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin into Ontario as
well and a surface cold front will accelerate eastward across the
Great Lakes and be approaching the East Coast by Sunday morning. To
the southwest, the cold front will not progress as quickly, but
should advance south and east through the day.

... Southeast Lower Michigan, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and
western New York ...

As the surface low lifts northward into Canada on Saturday, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the
trailing composite cold front/convective outflow. At the same time,
a surface warm front will lift slowly northward across Lower
Michigan. To the south of this front, and ahead of the cold
front/outflow, a moist airmass, characterized by low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints should be in place. Despite the strongest large-scale
ascent being displaced to the north and west of the warm sector and
weak midlevel lapse rates atop the warm sector, pockets of
insolation should be sufficient to destabilize the environment
enough to support some convective redevelopment along and ahead of
the composite outflow/cold front. Modest instability will combine
with seasonably strong low-level wind fields to support a convective
wind threat and an isolated tornado threat along the leading edge of
any sustained linear segments.

... Tennessee Valley southwest to eastern Texas ...

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the
western portions of this area at the start of the forecast period.
These thunderstorms will likely be driven by convergence along the east/southeast moving composite cold front/convective outflow
boundary, with the exact western edge of any severe threat
demarcated by where this boundary is located at the start of the
forecast period. Seasonably high precipitable water values should
support some threat for strong wind gusts in the most intense
thunderstorm cores. These thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the day, despite weakening large-scale ascent and vertical
wind shear as the midlevel low pulls farther away. Given the
seasonably high precipitable water values, modest insolation should
support MUCAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/kg (perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg) across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
This may support a re-intensification of ongoing convection which
would be capable of sporadic damaging downbursts

..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041242
SWODY1
SPC AC 041240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are
expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio
River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other
more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley,
Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.

...Ohio/Eastern Indiana/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania/New York...
A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest early today will continue northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through tonight.
Cyclonically influenced strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies
(50+ kt 700 mb) will overspread Indiana/Michigan toward the Lower
Great Lakes, atop a steadily moistening/heating warm-sector boundary
layer along and north of the Ohio River.

This will be ahead of a surface low and cold front, that is
considerably augmented by generally weakening thunderstorms and
prevalent lingering clouds/outflows through the pre-dawn hours.
These residual factors cast uncertainty regarding the magnitude of
today's overall potential, but a formidable flow field and
guidance-advertised heating/steady diurnal destabilization will
still be supportive of at least some severe potential regionally as
storms redevelop and intensify this afternoon. This includes
damaging wind potential, particularly given the magnitude of low/mid-tropospheric winds and boundary layer mixing, with some
tornado threat as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front. Overall storm intensities should decrease
by mid/late evening, owing to nocturnal boundary-layer influences
and the primary upper-level system spreading away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas ...
While diminishing in intensity overnight, showers/thunderstorms
remain extensive and prevalent from the Mid-South/Ozarks
southwestward into North Texas, as a synoptic cold front otherwise
continues to progress southeastward across these regions. While
details are complexified by considerable cloud cover and lingering
storms, multiple corridors of reinvigorating storms should
materialize this afternoon where more appreciable cloud
breaks/heating occur. Downbursts/locally damaging winds will be the
primary severe hazard, but this is currently expected to be on a
relatively isolated/episodic basis.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041627
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two appear possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.

...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.

This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 042002
SWODY1
SPC AC 042000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds
and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the
Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this
afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee
Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas.

...20z Update Great Lakes Region...
A band of thunderstorms ahead of the eastward progressing cold front
will continue across northern OH this afternoon before moving into
western PA and southwest NY this evening. Diurnal steepening of
low-level lapse rates amid fairly strong, but unidirectional flow
aloft will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts. A brief
tornado also remains possible with any rotating elements, especially
near the southern shores of Lake Erie near the stalled warm
front/lake boundary. Have trimmed severe and thunder probabilities
behind the front over IN where the risk has decreased.

...TN Valley to the Southeast and South TX...
Ahead of the southern portions of the cold front, a warm, moist, and
unstable air mass will support widespread thunderstorm activity from
parts of the TN Valley, Southeast and into South TX. In the absence
of steep mid-level lapse rates and stronger vertical shear
(especially with southward extent), storm organization should be
transient and limited. Still, the moist environment and some veering
winds the lowest few km could support an occasional stronger or
briefly rotating storm. Any clustering could support occasional
damaging gusts or small hail with stronger updrafts near the front.
The outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments to the western
extent of thunder and severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 04/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026/

...Midwest/Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and Western New York...
An upper trough over the Upper Midwest late this morning will
continue moving northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes through
tonight. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterlies (with 50+ kt
present at 700 mb) will overspread IN/MI toward the Lower Great
Lakes atop a gradually moistening/heating boundary layer along and
north of the Ohio River.

This will occur ahead of a surface low over WI/MI and convectively reinforced/southeastward-developing cold front that will impact
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley this afternoon. Recent visible
satellite trends showing clearing across much of OH into northwest
PA suggest sufficient heating and modest diurnal destabilization
will support at least some severe potential regionally as
thunderstorms redevelop and intensify this afternoon along/ahead of
the cold front. Given steepening low-lapse rates and enhanced
low/mid-level southwesterly flow, scattered severe/damaging winds
should be the main threat. But, there may also be some potential for
a tornado or two as well, mainly in vicinity of the triple
point/nearby warm front that will extend eastward into central PA.
Overall updraft intensities should decrease by mid to late evening,
owing to stabilizing/nocturnal boundary-layer influences, and the
primary upper trough/low moving northeastward away from the region.

...Tennessee Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Texas...
Showers and occasional thunderstorms remain extensive this morning
from the Mid-South southwestward into northeast TX, as a surface
cold front continues to progress southeastward across these areas.
Even with considerable cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft ahead
of this ongoing activity, multiple corridors of reinvigorated
convective clusters should develop this afternoon where some cloud breaks/filtered heating can occur. Downbursts with locally damaging
winds should be the primary severe hazard, but this threat is
expected to remain relatively isolated given lessening deep-layer
shear with southward extent into the lower MS Valley/TX.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of damaging gusts remain possible across the northern
Appalachians this evening, and an instance or two of hail/wind may
accompany one of the stronger storms in Deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough continues to progress eastward over
the Great Lakes, with surface lee troughing prevalent over the
Appalachians and points east. A cold front continues to sweep
eastward across the OH/TN Valleys into southern TX, preceded by
enough buoyancy to support mainly general thunderstorms. A couple of
stronger thunderstorms may still occur over the northern
Appalachians and far southern TX.

...PA into the southern Great Lakes...
Ahead of the surface cold front, scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MLCAPE) remains in place per regional 00Z observed soundings.
Most of the CAPE is constrained in the 850-600 mb layer, which may
support a few strong low topped cells within bands of convection,
aided by strong low-level shear, as shown by the soundings. 0-3 km
SRH remains in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. As such, while the severe
threat is expected to remain sparse at best given poor buoyancy, the
strong low-level shear suggests that an additional damaging gust
cannot be completely ruled out.

...Deep-South Texas...
Multicells continue to propagate southward ahead of a cold front,
where ample buoyancy remains in place. While vertical wind shear is
poor, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates (per the 00Z BRO observed sounding), indicates
the potential for a sparse severe hail/gust instance before storms
dissipate in the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141153
SWODY1
SPC AC 141151

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated today.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen over the northern
Rockies this afternoon, resulting in steep lapse rates, cold
temperatures aloft, and strong large-scale forcing over northwest
WY. Despite cold surface temperatures, at least isolated
thunderstorms are expected.

A developing low-level baroclinic zone over MN/WI will be the focus
for thunderstorm development tonight as the low-level jet
strengthens. Much of this activity will likely be associated with
freezing precip and heavy snowfall.

Finally, scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of
central/south FL, in a rather weakly sheared environment.

..Hart/Weinman.. 03/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141618
SWODY1
SPC AC 141616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
that develop across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula this
afternoon.

...Florida...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon
across parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys, with agitated cu
noted on recent visible satellite imagery across east-central to
southeast FL. Greater low-level moisture is present across
central/south FL, where 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints exist per
latest observations. Continued daytime heating of this moist airmass
will support the development of moderate instability through the
afternoon. Modest mid-level lapse rates (reference 00Z MFL and 12Z
KEY observed soundings) and weak low/mid-level winds may tend to
limit updraft strength. Even so, modestly enhanced upper-level winds
and related deep-layer shear around 25-30 kt could support isolated
severe hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest cores that
develop. Have added a Marginal Risk for this potential across parts
of the southern FL Peninsula and vicinity where the greatest
concentration of convection is expected.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Moisture will remain meager today (surface dewpoints generally in
the teens and 20s) across the northern Rockies and High Plains as an
upper trough amplifies and a surface cold front advances southward
over this region. Even so, cold temperatures aloft may support very
weak MUCAPE and occasional lightning flashes with low-topped
convection that should develop from eastern ID/southern MT into much
of WY and vicinity this afternoon/evening. While gusty winds may
occur with this activity, the very limited thermodynamic environment
should preclude organized severe thunderstorms.

...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm/moist advection will increase tonight into early
Sunday morning across parts of the Upper Midwest as a
south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Weak MUCAPE
(generally less than 1000 J/kg) along and north of a warm front and
strong large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough ejecting
eastward over the northern Plains may support elevated thunderstorms
late tonight (mainly after 15/06Z) across parts of IA/MN/WI. Small
hail could occur with the strongest cores, and lightning flashes
appear possible with mixed/wintry precipitation well north of the
warm front into MN/WI.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 03/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210531
SWODY1
SPC AC 210529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1
inch diameter this afternoon and evening across the southern
Appalachian region.

...Southern Appalachians...

Very strong midlevel anticyclone remains anchored over the
southwestern CONUS. This is forcing meaningful short waves across
the northern Rockies/high Plains before digging southeast toward the
eastern portions of the United States. Early this morning,
water-vapor imagery depicts one of these features digging southeast
across eastern SD/NE. By the start of the period this short wave
will extend across IL/southeast MO/northeast AR, then it will
advance into KY/TN by early afternoon.

At the surface, a weak boundary that is draped across VA-northern KY
will gradually lift north and become somewhat diffuse west of the
higher terrain. South of this wind shift, modest boundary-layer
heating will be noted across the Carolinas into the TN Valley such
that 0-3km lapse rates should exceed 7 C/km by peak heating.
Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be
approached, or breached by 21z as temperatures rise through the
upper 70s to near 80F across southeast KY/eastern TN. While
low-level convergence is expected to be somewhat weak, orographic
influences will contribute to the potential for isolated
thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave. Forecast midlevel
flow is expected to be around 30-35kt across this region at 500mb,
so deep-layer shear may prove adequate for a few supercells. If
robust convection develops in this environment then hail on the
order of 1 inch could be noted with the strongest storms. This
activity will spread southeast into the western Carolinas as the
short wave advances downstream. The primary concern for hail will be
during the afternoon/evening hours.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211231
SWODY1
SPC AC 211230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening across
parts of the southern Appalachians/Southeast.

...Southern Appalachians/Southeast...
With upper ridging persisting over the Southwest and northern Mexico
today, a subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward
from the mid MS Valley/Mid-South this morning towards the southern
Appalachians vicinity by this evening. At the surface, a weak front
draped generally east-west across the OH Valley should lift
northward as a warm front through the afternoon, with modest
low-level moisture advancing northward across parts of the lower MS
Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast.

Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough should
remain rather weak, but daytime heating and orographic circulations
over the southern Appalachians may aid isolated thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon (around 20-22Z). Most guidance,
with the exception of the NAM, suggests that boundary-layer moisture
will remain quite limited this afternoon, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. Even so, weak instability/steepened
low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging
downdraft winds with any thunderstorms that can develop from eastern
TN into parts of the Carolinas. Around 25-30 kt of effective bulk
shear may also aid modest updraft organization and marginally severe
hail with the strongest cores. The isolated severe threat should
wane through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211631
SWODY1
SPC AC 211629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the
southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.

...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave
trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the
far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the
Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes
this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging
from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of
the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated
today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered
by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to
be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as
the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited
low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep
mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening.

Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more
cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the
southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting
in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more
persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually
intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas.
Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend
towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and
persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong
to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal
boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe
threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211933
SWODY1
SPC AC 211932

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the
southern Appalachians into the Carolinas.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below), remains on track. Please see
Mesoscale Discussion 283 for short-term information on the severe
threat across portions of the southern Appalachians.

..Squitieri.. 03/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026/

...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas...
Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave
trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the
far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the
Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes
this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging
from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of
the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated
today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered
by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to
be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as
the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited
low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep
mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening.

Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more
cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the
southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting
in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more
persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually
intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas.
Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend
towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and
persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong
to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal
boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe
threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220035
SWODY1
SPC AC 220034

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Ongoing thunderstorms across the southern Appalachians will continue
to pose a threat for lightning into the Carolinas this evening.

... 01Z Update ...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a subtle mid-level trough
will continue to move across the southern Appalachians into the
Carolinas this evening. Recent mesoanalysis suggests deep-layer
shear is around 30 knots and most-unstable CAPE up to 500 J/kg.
However, ongoing convection has struggled to maintain robust
updrafts within this environment. Given weak forcing for ascent,
increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing instability this
evening, any severe wind or hail potential should remain less than
5% coverage.

Thunderstorms should dissipate later this evening into the early
morning.

..Marsh.. 03/22/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280548
SWODY1
SPC AC 280546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
Northwest mid-level flow will continue across much of the central
and eastern U.S. today, as a cold front advances southward across
Florida. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible south of the front
within a moist airmass across parts of south Florida and the Florida
Keys this afternoon. No severe threat is forecast, and no
thunderstorms are expected over the remainder of the continental
U.S.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281225
SWODY1
SPC AC 281223

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, but no severe threat is
forecast.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface analysis shows an extensive area of high
pressure covering much of the central and eastern CONUS, the only
exception being across eastern MT where a weak lee low is in place.
Another weak low exists over southern NV, along an inverted trough
that extends from the central Gulf of California into central NV.

A weak frontal boundary separates the dry and stable continental
airmass associated with the high pressure from the more moist,
tropical airmass over the Gulf and central/southern FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and modest buoyancy will support showers and
thunderstorms along and south of this boundary during the afternoon
and evening, fostered by both convergence along the front and a westward-progressing sea breeze. Limited buoyancy and weak shear
should preclude storm organization, keeping the severe risk
isolated. Even so, relatively high LCLs and steep low-level lapse
rates could still support strong downbursts. Thunderstorms are not
expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281553
SWODY1
SPC AC 281551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move
east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced
from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in
visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL,
will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and
decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL
and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy
will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both
convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited
buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.

..Smith/Bunting.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281919
SWODY1
SPC AC 281918

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will move
east into the western Atlantic and become increasingly displaced
from the Southeast U.S. A southward-moving cold front, evident in
visible satellite imagery over the Gulf Stream east of north FL,
will move across the FL Peninsula before becoming less defined and
decelerating as it encounters a sub-tropical airmass over south FL
and the Bahamian archipelago. Strong heating and modest buoyancy
will support isolated to widely scattered convection mainly along
this boundary during the afternoon and evening, fostered by both
convergence along the front and sea breeze boundary. Limited
buoyancy and weak shear will likely preclude severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290053
SWODY1
SPC AC 290051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of south and
central Florida this evening, but no severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
West to northwest mid-level flow will continue across most of the
U.S. this evening. At the surface, a cold front will move southward
through central Florida. A moist airmass is present to the south of
the front, where surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Low-level
convergence will be enough for isolated thunderstorm development
this evening. However, instability will remain very weak, limiting
any potential for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental
U.S., conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms through
tonight.

..Broyles.. 03/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061618
SWODY1
SPC AC 061616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.

Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061922
SWODY1
SPC AC 061920

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula and portions of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may occur across
the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized severe potential
should remain low.

...20z Update...
No changes are need to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 04/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Mean longwave troughing will remain over the eastern COUNS today,
while a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances eastward across the
Gulf towards the FL Peninsula by late tonight. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the southern Plains to TN/OH Valleys will
maintain offshore low-level trajectories and limited low-level
moisture over a large majority of the CONUS. Still, isolated
lightning flashes may occur today across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest in association with weak
mid-level perturbations amid the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and
modest lift.

Greater low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints)
will remain confined along/south of a cold front draped across the
central FL Peninsula. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon across central/south FL as
daytime heating erodes lingering MLCIN, especially across interior
areas. With the low-amplitude shortwave trough remaining well to the
west over the Gulf through the day, weak low/mid-level winds and
meager deep-layer shear over land will likely limit updraft
organization and severe potential. Still, occasional strong/gusty
downburst winds may occur with the more robust cores as low-level
lapse rates become steepened with continued diurnal heating.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070047
SWODY1
SPC AC 070046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of
the Pacific Northwest, Desert Southwest, and Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast,
with upper ridging persisting over the Northwest, and a
low-amplitude impulse impinging on the Southwest this evening.
Across the Northwest and Southwest, colder air aloft is supporting
scant buoyancy, which will continue to promote the potential for a
couple of lightning flashes through early tonight. Thunderstorms
continue to benefit from a moist, unstable environment across the
central and southern FL Peninsula. Storms should gradually weaken
this evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Squitieri.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070455
SWODY1
SPC AC 070454

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject over the Atlantic while another
pronounced mid-level trough rapidly traverses the northern Rockies
today. Meanwhile, multiple low-amplitude impulses traversing
relatively zonal upper flow will overspread the Southwest and the FL
Peninsula. Across the Southern Rockies, enough lift amid cool air
aloft (and thus scant buoyancy) should accompany the aforementioned low-amplitude mid-level impulse to support isolated to potentially
scattered thunderstorm development. Scattered thunderstorms may also
develop across the FL Peninsula along sea-breeze boundaries given a
moist, heated low-level airmass. Scattered high-based/low-topped
storms are likely across the northern High Plains with the approach
of the upper trough. Storms will develop atop a deep and dry
boundary layer, but with scant buoyancy. Given the dry boundary
layer, gusty conditions may accompany the stronger storms. However,
the severe wind threat currently appears too low for the
introduction of a Category 1/Marginal risk at this time.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071235
SWODY1
SPC AC 071234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorm potential is currently expected to
remain low.

...Synopsis...
Split/nearly zonal upper-level flow will prevail across most of the
CONUS to the south of an amplifying trough from the Canadian Rockies southeastward toward the northern High Plains, and in the wake of
low-amplitude troughs crossing both New England and Florida today.

...Florida Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorms should increase across the Florida Peninsula
into the afternoon, influenced by the passing mid-level trough and
sea-breeze convergence in the presence of a very moist airmass. A
few of the storms across the southern Florida Peninsula could
produce locally strong thunderstorm winds, but severe potential
should remain relatively low.

...Northern High Plains...
Isolated high-based storms are expected across the northern High
Plains, including eastern Montana into western North Dakota, aided
by the approach of the aforementioned upper trough. Storms will
develop atop a relatively dry/well-mixed boundary layer, but with
very limited buoyancy overall. Given the dry boundary layer and
strengthening mid-tropospheric winds, strong and gusty winds may
accompany this convection during the late afternoon until around
sunset.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071622
SWODY1
SPC AC 071620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms should occur today
across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula,
southern/central Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071947
SWODY1
SPC AC 071946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible across
parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula, southern/central
Rockies/High Plains, and northern High Plains today and tonight.
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...20z Update...
The only change was to trim thunder probabilities over parts of the
southern FL Peninsula. Isolated storms remain possible south of the
front over the Keys tonight. While a brief stronger thunderstorm
remains possible across south FL, weak mid-level lapse rates and
modest vertical shear will continue to limit severe potential before
convection moves offshore this afternoon. Otherwise, the outlook
remains unchanged, see the previous discussion.

..Lyons.. 04/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward today from
British Columbia/Alberta to the northern Rockies/High Plains. Strong
mid-level winds will accompany this shortwave trough, and a
deep/well-mixed boundary layer is expected to develop across parts
of eastern MT and vicinity by this afternoon with diurnal heating.
However, low-level moisture will remain quite limited, with surface
dewpoints currently in the 20s to mid 30s across the northern High
Plains. This will hinder the development of any more than weak
MLCAPE by mid to late afternoon, although high-based convection
capable of producing occasional lightning flashes and strong/gusty
winds may occur. Given expectations for moisture and related
instability to remain quite meager, have not included low severe
wind probabilities across the northern High Plains with this update.

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will continue to advance eastward
across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. Isolated to perhaps
scattered thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
south FL along and south of a convectively reinforced front. Prior
convection and ongoing cloud cover across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will probably hinder more robust diurnal heating this
afternoon. Still, locally gusty downdraft winds and small hail may
occur with the stronger cores that can develop, before convection
eventually focuses offshore by this evening.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms also appear possible
across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains through this evening, but weak instability across these
regions are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080102
SWODY1
SPC AC 080100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight over the northern and
southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough continues to progress across the northern
Rockies, providing enough mechanical lift amid cool temperatures
aloft to support isolated high-based thunderstorms atop a dry
boundary layer. A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will also continue
to traverse the northern Rockies, supporting scattered lightning
flashes given the presence of scant buoyancy. These storms should
gradually diminish through the evening as boundary-layer
stabilization from nocturnal cooling takes place.

..Squitieri.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080558
SWODY1
SPC AC 080556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may develop across western into central
Kansas this afternoon and evening, with an instance or two of severe
wind and hail possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the north-central CONUS today,
supporting modest surface troughing across the Plains states.
Despite initially meager low-level moisture return, storms may
develop along a frontal boundary over the central Plains by late
afternoon. A few of which may be strong. Otherwise, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries over
the FL Peninsula, as was with the upper trough over the Upper MS
Valley. A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over northern
CA surrounding areas as an upper trough impinges on the coastline.

...Central into western Kansas...
By afternoon peak heating, clear skies and robust heating of the
boundary layer will result in convective temperatures being reached
along/just ahead of a frontal boundary, which is poised to drift
southward through late afternoon. Convective initiation is likely
around or after 20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads should be in place.
High-based multicells will be the likely storm mode, as strong
northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to elongated, straight
hodographs. The strongest storms may produce a couple of severe
gusts and perhaps an instance or two of hail.

..Squitieri/Chalmers.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across western and central
Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally
severe wind gusts possible.

...Western/central Kansas...
The region will be glancingly influenced by an eastward-progressing
upper trough over the northern Plains. Ample insolation and robust
heating of a boundary layer, characterized by limited moisture (40s
F dewpoints), will result in convective temperatures being reached
by peak heating near a southeastward-moving front. Isolated to
widely scattered convective initiation is expected around or after
20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads will be in place. High-based multicells
will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest
storms may produce hail and severe wind gusts on an isolated basis.

...Southern Florida...
A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could again occur
today, mainly across the southeast part of the Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain relatively marginal
and localized given the overall setup and thermodynamic environment.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081612
SWODY1
SPC AC 081610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.

...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated thunderstorm development across this area.

While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.

...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081948
SWODY1
SPC AC 081946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Kansas
late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally severe
wind gusts possible.

...20z Update KS...
The prior outlook remains valid with no changes. High-based
thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon and this evening
ahead of the cold front in western and central KS. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates should be sufficient for modest
destabilization amid limited boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in
the 40s F). Despite the limited buoyancy, a few stronger multi-cell
clusters capable of isolated severe gusts and some small hail are
possible.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
FL, the West Coast and northern Plains through tonight. Weak
buoyancy and poor overlap with vertical shear should limit severe
potential. See the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 04/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026/

...Kansas...
A strong upper trough/low over the northern Plains and south-central
Canada will move eastward today towards the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, and eventually spread into Ontario by late tonight. At the
surface, an occluded low will develop eastward in tandem with the
upper trough/low, while a cold front extending southwestward into
the central Plains continues moving slowly southward through this
evening. Limited low-level moisture is expected to exist ahead of
the front by late this afternoon across KS, with late morning
surface observations and short-term guidance both suggesting surface
dewpoints will likely remain in the mid 30s to no more than mid 40s.
A well-mixed boundary layer will likely develop with ample daytime
heating across the narrow warm sector, with MLCAPE perhaps peaking
in the 250-500 J/kg range around 21-23Z in parts of western/central
KS. MLCIN is forecast to become minimal in this time frame, and weak
low-level convergence along the front may be enough to aid isolated thunderstorm development across this area.

While stronger flow aloft associated with the upper-level trough/low
will remain displaced to the north of KS, modest enhancement to the
mid-level westerlies may still support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
shear. This should be sufficient for some updraft organization with
any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained. The primary
uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will form given overall
modest large-scale ascent amid weak instability. Still, some risk
for isolated hail and locally severe gusts remains apparent with the
strongest multicell cores. The Marginal Risk has been maintained
across KS with no changes.

...Central/South Florida...
20-30 kt mid-level westerlies will overlie weak low-level easterlies
today across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
Resultant modest effective bulk shear would conditionally support
updraft organization, but poor mid-level lapse rates noted on the
12Z TBW and KEY observed soundings should generally limit updraft
strength. Still, isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms should
develop this afternoon, and preferentially focus along/near the
Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Small hail and gusty winds may occur with
the strongest cores, but the overall severe threat appears too
limited/isolated to include any probabilities at this time.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090058
SWODY1
SPC AC 090056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
The Marginal Risk across western/central Kansas was removed with
this outlook update. A cluster of thunderstorm activity continues to
shift south and east, but has largely remained below severe limits.
This activity is expected to further weaken over the next couple of
hours with the loss of daytime heating and gradually waning MLCAPE.

..Thornton.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090559
SWODY1
SPC AC 090557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected this afternoon and
evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into
Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the US today will consist of a
deepening trough across the Western US with enhanced westerly flow
extending across the central/northern US within the base of a
broader upper-low across portions of Canada. Within the broad area
of westerly flow, several disturbances will rotate across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.

At the surface, a warm front will lift northward through the day
across the central Plains, extending as far north as southern NE/IA.
As a surface high builds to the north across the Dakotas, this
boundary will sag southward as a cold front through the late
afternoon/evening. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected
along this east/west oriented boundary and as well across the
dryline further west into the OK/TX Panhandles. The primary threat
will be for large to very large hail and damaging wind. A more
isolated risk for large hail will extend southward across the
dryline into western Kansas/OK/TX Panhandles.

...Central Plains...
South of the aforementioned boundary across central KS into
southeastern NE, low to mid-50s dew points in combination with
strong daytime heating will yield moderate MLCAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm activity should develop along the warm
front around 18z and increase with the incoming upper-level wave and
cooling aloft. Forecast soundings along and south of the boundary in
Kansas depict steep low to mid-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) and deep
layer shear around 40 kts, supportive of supercells capable of large
to very large hail(some 2+ inches in diameter)and severe wind. The
Slight was extended southward into central Kansas to account for
potential for development into this region and continuation of the
large to very large hail threat.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.

...Northern California/Oregon Coasts...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected by the late
morning/afternoon. Sufficient moisture and MLCAPE will extend inland overlapping deep layer shear 20-25 kts and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates to support potential for strong to severe wind gusts. As
such, a 5% wind area was introduced with this outlook to cover this
potential. Some instances of small hail will also be possible, owing
to steep lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091252
SWODY1
SPC AC 091250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected late this afternoon and evening across Kansas, southeast
Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Isolated severe
storms may also occur across the south-central High Plains and
northern California/western Oregon.

...Central Plains and Lower/Middle Missouri Valley...
A frontal zone will focus and shift northward toward across Kansas
toward the Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa/Missouri border vicinities
today, before gradually accelerating southeastward tonight. The
region will be influenced later today by a secondary shortwave
trough digging southeastward over the northern Plains, with the
persistence of cyclonic and somewhat strengthening mid/upper-level
flow. On the nose of south-southwesterly lower tropospheric winds,
low-level moisture will diurnally increase along/south of the front,
offset by ample mixing across Kansas, resulting in surface dewpoints
mainly in the lower/middle 50s F into peak heating. Beneath very
steep mid-level lapse rates, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values are
expected near/south of the front.

After some early day thunderstorms, more intense surface-based
thunderstorm development should occur as early as 22-23z/5-6pm CDT
near the boundary including portions of northern Kansas/southeast
Nebraska to the Iowa/Missouri border region, with other more
isolated and higher-based storms possible across western Kansas and
the nearby High Plains in vicinity of the lee trough/surface low.

Moderately strong westerlies will reside along/north of the
boundary, with 40+ kt effective shear supporting supercells capable
of large hail, potentially some in excess of 2 inches in diameter.
Some tornado potential may exist mainly across northeast Kansas/far
southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri near the boundary, but
this overall potential will tend to be mitigated by modest-caliber
moisture and the influence of diurnal mixing. Severe winds are also
possible into evening as storms tend to cluster and spread/increase east-southeastward during the evening, although the modest early
season moisture and nocturnal influences will lead to a diminished
intensity trend into late evening.

...Northern California/western Oregon...
As the upper-level low approaches the West Coast, forcing for ascent
will overspread portions of northern California into southern Oregon
with scattered thunderstorm development expected into afternoon.
Sufficient moisture and CAPE will exist inland beneath strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of the trough. As lapse rates
steepen and flow aloft increases, storms may be capable of strong to
severe wind gusts and possibly some hail.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091630
SWODY1
SPC AC 091628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of
Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central
High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.

...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid
Missouri Valley...
Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being
aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a
surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to
gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the
northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be
hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of
north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level
moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains
through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front
draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.

Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels
will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains
today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean
mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most
guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the
vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE
by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest
south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at
mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose
a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter
possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a
well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render
considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk
for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early
evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk
for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening
as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the
severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening
with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with
southward/eastward extent.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther
southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of
a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage
remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this
far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts
should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop
and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early
evening.

...Northern California/Southwest Oregon...
As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West
Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern
CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected
into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist
inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of
the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may
be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly
some hail.

..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091945
SWODY1
SPC AC 091943

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of
Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central
High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.

...20z Update central and southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development remains likely late this afternoon and this
evening along the frontal zone from southern NE into northeast KS.
While remnant cloud cover has slowed destabilization, sufficient
buoyancy and supercell wind profiles will likely support a risk for
hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two this
afternoon/evening. See MCD #367 for specific short-term information.

Farther south along the trailing surface trough/dryline, more
isolated thunderstorm development is expected across the TX
Panhandle and far eastern NM. High cloud bases with deep inverted-v
structures could support isolated severe wind gusts with the heavier
cores. Storm coverage is likely to decrease farther south where
weaker forcing and overall more limited buoyancy is present. Still,
isolated storms are possible, and the 5% wind area was expanded
southward slightly for the latest hi-res guidance.

...CA and OR...
East of an upper low, broad-scale ascent over a modestly warm/moist
air mass was supporting widely scattered thunderstorms over portions
of northern CA and southern OR. While overall buoyancy is weak
(generally below 500 J/kg of MLCAPE), strengthening southerly flow
aloft could support a few organized clusters or transient supercells
capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and some hail.

..Lyons.. 04/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/

...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid
Missouri Valley...
Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being
aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a
surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to
gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the
northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be
hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of
north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level
moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains
through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front
draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.

Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels
will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains
today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean
mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most
guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the
vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE
by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest
south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at
mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose
a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter
possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a
well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render
considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk
for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early
evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk
for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening
as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the
severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening
with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with
southward/eastward extent.

Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther
southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of
a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage
remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this
far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts
should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop
and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early
evening.

...Northern California/Southwest Oregon...
As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West
Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern
CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected
into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist
inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of
the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may
be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly
some hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100102
SWODY1
SPC AC 100100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts remain possible this evening across parts of Kansas, southeast
Nebraska, and northwest Missouri.

...Central/southern Plains...
Scattered strong to severe storms have developed this evening from
southwest into north-central KS and far southern NE this evening,
near/south of a southward-moving cold front, and along/east of a
weak dryline. Despite modest low-level moisture (with warm-sector
dewpoints generally in the low 50s F), steep midlevel lapse rates
and relatively cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, within a moderately sheared environment.

A few relatively high-based supercells remain possible through the
evening, with an attendant threat of large hail (potentially
golf-ball-sized or larger) and localized severe gusts. A tornado
also cannot be ruled out across north-central/northeast KS, as
low-level moisture/shear gradually improve in conjunction with a
nocturnal low-level jet. Otherwise, some upscale growth remains
possible with time, which could result in at least an isolated
severe-wind threat spreading across parts of northeast KS and
northwest MO later tonight, before the threat diminishes in response
to increasing MLCINH. See MCD 370 and MD 371 for more information
regarding the short-term severe threat in this area.

...Northwest CA/southwest OR vicinity...
A few strong storms remain possible through early evening across
parts of northwest CA and southwest OR, in association with an upper
low off of the northern CA coast. Any remaining severe threat should
tend to diminish with time, as already weak buoyancy further
decreases due to convective overturning and nocturnal stabilization.

...CA Central Valley...
Isolated strong storms have recently developed across parts of the
CA central valley, with a supercell noted northwest of Fresno. While
deep-layer flow is rather weak, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and modest
veering of the wind profile could support a very isolated threat of
gusty winds and small to marginally severe hail, though coverage and
duration of the threat are expected to remain limited.

..Dean.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100555
SWODY1
SPC AC 100553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST
OR/SOUTHWEST ID...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central
Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also
occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest
Idaho, and also across parts of central California.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes
region toward New England through the period. Upstream, a mid/upper
low initially offshore of California will move inland toward the
Great Basin as a shortwave trough, as another mid/upper
shortwave/low approaches the Pacific Coast.

...Parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks...
In the wake of morning elevated convection, an outflow-reinforced
cold front is expected to become nearly stationary this afternoon
and early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cool
temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg
along/south of the front, with minimal MLCINH by afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in
the vicinity of the boundary across parts of southern KS/northern OK
into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front
and within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High
Plains vicinity.

With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow
forecast across the region, storm organization and duration may
generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may
briefly develop on an isolated basis near the boundary, where some
enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large
hail appears to be the most likely hazard, though localized
strong/damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out with the strongest
storms.

...Northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID and central/northern
CA...
In response to the approaching mid/upper low and shortwave trough,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
parts of central/northern CA into the northern Great Basin and
interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong
diurnal heating will result in steep low/midlevel lapse rates and
MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, despite limited low-level
moisture.

Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase with
time, with the most favorable overlap of shear and instability
currently expected from northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID.
Modestly organized cells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells
may develop in this area, with an attendant threat of hail and
localized severe gusts.

A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California. While deep-layer
shear will be somewhat less favorable compared to the northern Great
Basin area, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may
support potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest
storms. Local terrain influences could also support transient cell organization/rotation and possibly a brief tornado, though this
potential remains very uncertain at this time.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101237
SWODY1
SPC AC 101236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT
BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains
to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho,
and also across parts of north-central California.

...South-central Plains/Ozarks...
Scattered rain and generally weak thunderstorms will continue to
accompany and reinforce a southward-shifting front, with the
boundary stalling today, before starting to shift back northward
late tonight. Weakening flow aloft will occur today in the presence
of a building upper ridge and corresponding height rises. As
outflows dissipate, ample heating/mixing is expected later today to
the south of the front, where MLCAPE values may exceed 1500 J/kg
across Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.

Even with modest overall forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the
boundary across parts of far southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front, and
also within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High
Plains vicinity.

With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow
across the region, storm organization and duration may generally
remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly
develop on an isolated basis more immediately near the boundary,
where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible.
Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, although
localized strong/damaging wind gusts could also occur.

...Nevada/southeast OR/southwest ID and north-central CA...
A closed upper low off the coast of northern California will open
and become more progressive, reaching the Sierra and parts of the
Great Basin tonight. Related forcing for ascent and moisture will
influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across
parts of central/northern California into the northern Great Basin
and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong
diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg.

Mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase over
time, with the most favorable overlap of vertical shear and
instability expected across western/northern Nevada into southeast
Oregon and southwest Idaho. Semi-organized cells/clusters, and
perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat
of hail and localized severe wind gusts.

A few locally severe storms may also develop across parts of the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California this
afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker as
compared to the northern Great Basin, cold temperatures aloft
(near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support marginally severe hail with
the strongest storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local
terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and
possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado, although this potential
currently seems low/uncertain.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101631
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT
BASIN...AND WESTERN OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains
to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho,
and also across parts of north-central California.

...Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle,
with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across
northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before
becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this
boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across
far southern KS and northern OK.

The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the
day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow
persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this
trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin
shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional
thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near
both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly
destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or
marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but
modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe.

Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough
may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the
southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and
steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong
downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction
with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well,
which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued
potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail.

...North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin...
Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast
is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted
throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to
this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern
Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e.
-20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much
of the region.

A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR,
and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly
higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a
result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures.
Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will
support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few
supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and
localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker
across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a
few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local
terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and
possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101953
SWODY1
SPC AC 101952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
OREGON...THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts remain
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the
south-central Plains to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms
may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon
and southwest Idaho, and also across parts of north-central
California.

...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. A prominent
differential heating/outflow boundary associated with a cluster of thunderstorms over OK is forecast to continue sagging southward this
afternoon. An increase in storm coverage is possible this afternoon
and evening associated with the ongoing cluster and the trailing
boundary. With moderate buoyancy weak vertical shear, a low-end risk
for damaging gusts and hail could develop. 5% wind and hail
probabilities have been expanded slightly farther southeastward.

To the West across the Great Basin, strong mid-level ascent ahead of
the upper low over the Pacific Coast was overspreading a marginally
moist and buoyant air mass across parts of NV. Strong southerly flow
aloft could support a few semi-organized storms or clusters capable
of damaging gusts and sporadic hail. 5% wind and hail probabilities
have been expanded southward over parts of NV where buoyancy and
shear overlap could support some severe potential.

Otherwise, isolated severe storms remain possible across parts of
the central Valley of CA and western OR. The forecast remains
unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 04/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026/

...Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks...
Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle,
with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across
northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before
becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this
boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across
far southern KS and northern OK.

The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the
day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow
persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this
trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin
shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional
thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near
both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly
destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or
marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but
modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe.

Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough
may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the
southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and
steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong
downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction
with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well,
which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued
potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail.

...North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin...
Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast
is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted
throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to
this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern
Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e.
-20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much
of the region.

A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR,
and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly
higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a
result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures.
Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will
support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few
supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and
localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker
across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a
few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local
terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and
possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible during the late
evening hours across parts of the southern Plains and Great Basin;
however, the overall severe risk appears limited.

...Southern Plains...
Latest MRMS imagery depicts steady weakening of convection across
northeast NM and across northern OK with the onset of nocturnal
cooling and expanding convective outflows. While a couple of
stronger storms are noted across far eastern NM and southwest TX,
weak deep-layer wind shear and diminishing buoyancy should favor a
weakening trend heading into the late evening hours.

Additional elevated thunderstorms are anticipated well north of the
stalled surface boundary along the OK/KS border with recent CAM
guidance suggesting multi-cell clusters developing across portions
of central to northeast KS after 03 UTC. The recent 00z DDC RAOB
likely sampled the environment this convection will develop in, and
hints that at least a small hail threat may materialize with
initially discrete cells prior to upscale growth within the first
couple of hours after initiation.

...Great Basin...
Similar to the southern Plains, convective trends have largely shown
signs of weakening over the past hour across central to northern NV
where surface temperatures are quickly cooling into the 60s. The
combination of rain-cooled air/outflows and the onset of nocturnal
cooling should further reduce any remaining mixed-layer buoyancy
(which was already fairly marginal per regional 00z RAOBs).
Consequently, the thermodynamic environment no longer appears
supportive of intense convection, though a strong storm or two may
persist for the next hour as the boundary layer continues to
stabilize.

..Moore.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110543
SWODY1
SPC AC 110542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is evident in early-morning water-vapor imagery off
the California Coast. This wave will gradually de-amplify over the
next 24 hours as it progresses northeastward into the northern
Rockies. Further south, a lower-amplitude upper disturbance is noted
off the coast of Baja CA, and will migrate northeast into southwest
TX through this evening. Ahead of these features, modest lee
troughing along the High Plains and the southeastward shift of
surface high from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley will yield an
extended fetch of southerly low-level flow from the TX coast into
the upper MS Valley, resulting in northward moisture return as well
as a broad zone of isentropic ascent from the Plains into the upper
MS Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorm development appears likely by mid-afternoon across
southwest TX as ascent associated with the upper disturbance off the
coast of Baja CA migrates out of northern Mexico and overspreads
returning moisture. Initially discrete cells are likely and will
pose a threat for large hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale
growth by early evening into one or more convective lines. As this
transition occurs, strong to severe wind gusts will become the
predominant hazard, though an embedded circulation or two may be
possible. Based on latest guidance, the wind/tornado threat may be
maximized along and south of the I-20 corridor where the signal for clustering/banding is greatest in latest CAM and ensemble guidance.

...Central Plains to the Upper MS Valley...
Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused
through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains
into the upper MS Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen to
40-50 knots by this evening and will support steady moistening in
the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates.
Forecast soundings suggest that this environment will be weakly
capped and should support isolated to scattered thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours across the central Plains before
spreading/re-developing northeastward into the upper MS Valley late
tonight. While deep-layer wind shear will not be overly strong
(around 30 knots), it should be sufficient for a few transient
organized cells capable of large hail.

A more conditional supercell threat may materialize across portions
of the lower MO valley where some CAM guidance depicts convection
developing late afternoon along the surface warm front. Forecast
soundings from this region suggest a weakly capped, but moderately
buoyant and strongly sheared environment may be in place that could
support a well-organized supercell. However, poor ensemble consensus
limits confidence in this scenario.

...Central to northern Rockies...
00z RAOBs from the Great Basin/Four Corners region sampled steep
mid-level lapse rates with modest mid-level moisture. While fairly
dry, this environment was sufficient for convection yesterday and
will likely support additional thunderstorms across the central to
northern Rockies this afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition
and maximizes surface-based buoyancy. Ascent ahead of the decaying
upper wave will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
and a combination of modest deep-layer wind shear and deep,
well-mixed boundary layers will promote strong to severe downburst
winds. A fairly strong wind signal in latest HREF guidance
co-located with transient UH streaks lent enough confidence to
expand 5% wind probabilities northwestward to address this concern.

...CA Coast...
A progressive upper wave will move into northern CA late this
afternoon into the overnight hours. As this occurs, ascent within
the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, should
support isolated thunderstorms across northern CA. Winds within the
lowest 1-2 km should increase to around 40 knots as the wave moves
onshore, which may be augmented by convective downdrafts to yield a
few damaging gusts along the coast.

..Moore/Halbert.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111244
SWODY1
SPC AC 111242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorm development is likely by mid/late-afternoon across
southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico as increase forcing for
ascent overspreads modest but increasing low-level moisture.
Initially discrete cells are likely and will pose a threat for large
hail given adequate deep-layer wind shear /generally 30-40 kt/.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote upscale
growth by early evening into several linear clusters. As this
transition occurs, strong to severe wind gust potential will
increase and become the predominant hazard, though an embedded
circulation or two may occur with a tornado possible.

...Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Low-level warm air advection will likely become increasingly focused
through the day and into the overnight hours from the central Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley. 850 mb winds are forecast to
steadily strengthen to 40-60 kt by this evening and will support
moistening in the lowest 1-2 km under a plume of 7-7.5 C/km
mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that this
environment will be weakly capped and should support isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours across the
central Plains before spreading/re-developing northeastward into the
upper Mississippi Valley late tonight. While deep-layer wind shear
will not be overly strong (around 30 kt), it should be sufficient
for a few organized cells capable of severe hail.

A more conditional supercell potential may materialize by mid/late
afternoon through early evening across portions of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley near/just south of the northward-shifting surface
warm front, which may augmented by residual cloud cover/weakening
storms across northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska in the
pre-dawn hours. Forecast soundings from this region suggest a weakly
capped, but moderately buoyant airmass, with notably strong low-level/deep-layer wind profiles that would conditionally support
supercells including some tornado risk.

...Central/northern Rockies...
A northeast-ejecting shortwave trough, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture, will likely support
additional thunderstorms across the central to northern Rockies this
afternoon as diurnal heating occurs. A combination of modest
deep-layer wind shear and well-mixed boundary layers will support
potential for strong to severe downburst winds.

...Northern/central California Coast...
A progressive upper wave will continue eastward and reach the
northern California coast tonight. As this occurs, ascent within
the left-exit region of an attendant upper jet, coupled with cool
mid-level temperatures near the center of the upper low, will
support isolated thunderstorms across northern/central California.
Winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt
as the wave moves onshore, which will contribute to the potential
for convective downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind
gusts.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111629
SWODY1
SPC AC 111628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving
through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico,
progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the
subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a
deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse
rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central
Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect
northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these
factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which
are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress
northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a
large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the
southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions
support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas,
with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High
Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity.

Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this
evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a
few of which could be strong.

...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough
lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and
modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially
discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear
around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing
thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered
storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is
possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow
nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this
transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the
predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also
lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an
embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent
of whatever line develops.

...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This
warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid
persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level
moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region,
as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is
some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General
expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity
into north-central MO by this evening.

Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity
of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an
environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However,
some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale
forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective
initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM
guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the
afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in
this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a
tornado.

More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is
anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly
focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and
deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into
the Upper Midwest.

...Northern/Central Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough
progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer
mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment
that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much
of the region.

...Northern/Central California Coast...
A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the
northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress
southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated
convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest
1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves
onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective
downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111707
SWODY1
SPC AC 111705

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon
and evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected across parts of the central Rockies, central Plains, upper
Mississippi Valley, and portions of the California coast.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving
through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico,
progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the
subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a
deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse
rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central
Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect
northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these
factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which
are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress
northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a
large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the
southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions
support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas,
with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High
Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity.

Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this
evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a
few of which could be strong.

...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough
lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and
modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially
discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear
around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing
thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered
storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is
possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow
nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this
transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the
predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also
lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an
embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent
of whatever line develops.

...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This
warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid
persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level
moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region,
as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is
some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General
expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity
into north-central MO by this evening.

Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity
of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an
environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However,
some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale
forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective
initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM
guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the
afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in
this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a
tornado.

More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is
anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly
focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and
deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into
the Upper Midwest.

...Northern/Central Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough
progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer
mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment
that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much
of the region.

...Northern/Central California Coast...
A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the
northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress
southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated
convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest
1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves
onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective
downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 112001
SWODY1
SPC AC 112000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts are
possible across portions of the southern High Plains and into parts
of Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon and evening. More isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central Rockies, upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the
California coast.

...20z Update KS/NE...
An MCV evident in visible imagery over southwest/central KS is
forecast to shift northeastward this afternoon toward a differential
heating zone associated with a modifying remnant outflow boundary
across northern KS and southern NE. Ample heating south of this zone
has warmed temperatures ~5-7 degree above model guidance, with
observation trends suggestive of locally stronger buoyancy and
vertical shear on modified 12 and 18z RAOBs (1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE). While overall mid-level flow is modest, some enhancement in
the low and mid-levels ahead of the MCV is also evident in area
VADs, bolstering bulk shear to 30-35 kt. Backed low-level winds
along the retreating boundary are also aiding in maintaining sizable
clockwise curved low-level hodographs. This could support the
development of small supercell structures with potential to produce
tornadoes, particularly near and just north of the retreating
outflow boundary, and perhaps in close proximity to the MCV.

Otherwise, some hail and localized strong wind gusts are possible
with any more robust storms able to develop and maintain themselves
into this evening. Deep-layer shear is progged to increase after
dark, as a 40-50 kt low-level jet develops, supporting an increase
in storm coverage along and north of the boundary tonight. Hail and
damaging winds would be the primary threats. Given the local
increase in severe potential, a small zone ahead of the MCV and
along the boundary has been upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk.

...TX and NM...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely tonight
across West TX, the Rio Grand Valley and southeastern NM.
Eventually, one ore more lines or clusters may emerge and spread
east/northeast into central TX/west-central OK. A risk for damaging
gusts or a tornado remain possible with these storms into early
Sunday morning. High-res guidance suggests these storms may maintain
intensity slightly farther east. The 5% wind are was moved eastward
to account for the overnight/early morning risk for a few damaging
gusts.

Elsewhere, severe storms remain possible over parts of the Rockies
and West Coast. The outlook remains largely unchanged. See the prior
discussion for additional information.

..Lyons.. 04/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery reveals two shortwave troughs, one moving
through the Great Basin and the other moving into central Mexico,
progressing through the southwesterly flow aloft between the
subtropical ridging that extends through the Southeast states and a
deep upper low off the central West Coast. Steep mid-level lapse
rates precede the northern shortwave (i.e. from the northern/central
Rockies northeastward) and low-level moisture continues to advect
northward across the southern and central Plains. Both of these
factors will increase buoyancy ahead of these two shortwaves, which
are expected to become increasingly phased as they progress
northeastward throughout the day. This evolution will support a
large area of thunderstorms from the northern Rockies through the
southern Plains this afternoon/evening. Environmental conditions
support strong to isolated severe thunderstorms across these areas,
with a relatively higher chance of severe from the southern High
Plains into central TX and along the eastern NE/KS border vicinity.

Additionally, the West Coast upper low is forecast to progress east-southeastward into southern OR and northern/central CA this
evening and overnight, supporting the potential for thunderstorms, a
few of which could be strong.

...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the southern High Plains as a shortwave trough
lifts out of central Mexico and interacts with the moist and
modestly buoyant airmass in places over the region. A few initially
discrete storms are possible, and adequate deep-layer wind shear
around 35 kt could result in a few instances of severe hail.
However, weak capping and strong ascent should promote increasing
thunderstorm coverage, resulting in a transition to a more clustered
storm mode. Eventual evolution into one or more line segments is
possible, particularly over southwest TX as low-level flow
nocturnally strengthens and low-level moisture increases. As this
transition occurs, damaging gust potential will become the
predominant hazard. The strengthening low-level flow will also
lengthen low-level hodograph, supporting the potential for an
embedded circulation or two, particularly along the southern extent
of whatever line develops.

...Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent surface analysis places a warm front across central KS. This
warm front is forecast to progress northward throughout the day amid
persistent southerly flow and resulting moderate/strong low-level
moisture advection. Given the ongoing cloud cover across the region,
as well as the showers and thunderstorms over northwest MO, there is
some uncertainty to how this surface boundary will evolve. General
expectation is for this front to extend from the central NE vicinity
into north-central MO by this evening.

Large, looping low-level hodographs are anticipated in the vicinity
of this warm front. These profiles, along with dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, result in an
environment that is conditionally favorable for supercells. However,
some capping will likely linger across the region and large-scale
forcing will be negligible, casting doubt to whether convective
initiation will be realized. This uncertainty is matched by the CAM
guidance, none of which establishes meaningful convection during the
afternoon and evening. All that to say, if an updraft does mature in
this environment, all severe hazards are possible, including a
tornado.

More certain (but less intense) thunderstorm potential is
anticipated as low-level warm air advection becomes increasingly
focused from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
this evening and overnight. Moderate elevated buoyancy and
deep-layer shear support the potential for a few stronger updrafts
capable of hail as thunderstorms expand northeastward from IA into
the Upper Midwest.

...Northern/Central Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
northern and central Rockies, ahead of a shortwave trough
progressing northeastward into the region. Deep boundary-layer
mixing ahead of this system coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will result in an environment
that supports the potential for strong to severe gusts across much
of the region.

...Northern/Central California Coast...
A frontal band, associated with an upper low moving over the
northern California coast tonight, is expected to progress
southeastward through the central CA coastal vicinity this evening. Thermodynamic profiles appear marginally supportive of isolated
convection deep enough to produce lightning. Winds within the lowest
1-2 km AGL should increase to around 40 kt as the wave moves
onshore, which will contribute to the potential for convective
downdrafts to produce a few locally damaging wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120058
SWODY1
SPC AC 120056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible overnight
across portions central Texas while more isolated severe
thunderstorms are expected across the southern and central Plains
and into the upper Mississippi River Valley.

...Synopsis...
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this evening and
into the overnight hours across parts of the central CONUS. A lee
cyclone will continue to deepen across the northern High Plains and
maintain northward moisture return across the Plains as well as a
focused zone of strong isentropic ascent across the upper MS Valley.
Buoyant conditions and modest, but adequate, deep-layer wind shear
should continue to support the potential for organized convection.

...Texas...
The early stages of MCV development are noted in regional
reflectivity across the Big Bend region of TX where a convective
clustering has been focused over the past several hours. The nearby
00z DRT RAOB recently sampled a 0-6 km bulk shear value on the order
of 45 knots, which is favorable for organized convection. This
kinematic environment remains favorable for organized convection and
could support intensification/organization of a convective line
associated with the MCV as it migrates eastward into a more
moist/buoyant environment. This scenario is supported by recent CAM
guidance, and warrants maintaining/expanding 15% wind probabilities
downstream of the MCV.

...Oklahoma into Kansas...
Modestly moist and uncapped conditions were recently sampled across
northern TX and central OK with effective bulk shear values on the
order of 25 knots. Continued northward moisture advection should
modulate nocturnal stabilization, and increasing ascent ahead of the
upper wave emanating out of northern Mexico may support isolated
strong to severe convection through the late evening and overnight
hours.

...Upper MS Valley...
VWPs across the Midwest and upper MS Valley all show a strong
veering within the lowest 1-2 km and a recent uptick in wind speed
within this layer. Additionally, upstream RAOBs sampled 7-8 C/km
lapse rates that should be advecting eastward into the region
through the overnight hours. The combination of continued ascent and
increasing instability should promote the potential for additional
elevated convection late tonight with an attendant threat for hail
approach severe limits.

...California...
The 00z OAK RAOB sampled weak buoyancy with around 150 J/kg SBCAPE.
However, temperatures near 700 mb should continue to cool through
the overnight hours with the approach of an upper wave just off the
coast. Continued ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant
upper jet will maintain the potential for isolated convection along
the CA coast and areas inland. Additionally, 35-45 knot flow within
the lowest few kilometers will likely be maintained through the
overnight. Given the expectation of a slight increase in buoyancy
and maintenance of low-level flow, opted to keep the 5% wind risk.

..Moore.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120603
SWODY1
SPC AC 120601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. More
isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of the Upper
Great Lakes and northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning surface observations reveal a surface low developing
across the northern High Plains with a broad fetch of southerly flow
from the western Gulf into the Plains and Midwest. This broad warm
sector characterized by mid 50s to low/mid 60s dewpoints will
largely remain in place through the day as the surface low
translates east across the Plains into the Great Lakes region
tonight. The greatest potential for strong/severe thunderstorms will
reside within this warm sector where regional forcing for ascent
will support a chance for deep convection.

...Southern Plains...
Latest 00z HREF/REFS guidance, as well as more recent CAM solutions,
all show considerable variability in the evolution of an ongoing MCS
through late morning across southern/southeast TX. While most
solutions depict a steady weakening trend, others - notably the
WRF-ARW - hint at some continued wind threat across the TX Coastal
Plain this morning. Regardless, this activity is forecast to
diminish by late morning/early afternoon, and will likely leave an
outflow boundary on the western periphery of the cold pool in its
wake.

Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will quickly return northward in the
wake of the MCS with ensemble guidance depicting a plume of MLCAPE
values between 1500-2000 J/kg from central TX into western OK by
mid-afternoon. Thunderstorm development appears possible along any
residual outflow boundaries across central TX given weak capping
depicted in forecast soundings, though confidence in precisely where
this will occur or how widespread storm coverage will be remains
fairly uncertain. Thunderstorm initiation off the Sierra Del Carmen
mountains in northern Mexico and along a weak dryline across
southern KS southward into western OK/TX appears more probable,
though again, storm coverage will likely remain fairly isolated
given weak forcing for ascent and some degree of synoptic-scale
subsidence in the wake of the upper disturbance currently passing
over the region.

Convection that can develop within this buoyant and weakly capped
environment could become fairly intense given favorable
thermodynamic profiles. Despite some mid-level backing in forecast
hodographs, effective bulk shear values appear sufficient for a
large, to perhaps very large hail threat. However, given the
aforementioned uncertainties in thunderstorm coverage, 15% hail
probabilities have been confined to where ensemble guidance depicts
the best overall convective signal.

...Minnesota...
A lee cyclone evident in recent surface observations over the
northern High Plains will migrate eastward along the U.S./Canaidan
border through the day, reaching northern MN by around peak heating.
A narrow tongue of returning moisture may support a corridor of
sufficient ascent and buoyancy for deep convection. While latest
guidance remains somewhat mixed on thunderstorm coverage, forecast
soundings suggest elevated convection may support a threat for large
hail. Furthermore, several high-res forecast soundings depict an
environment favorable for surface-based supercells along the frontal
zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper 50s. While this
potential appears very low per recent ensemble guidance, some
tornado threat could materialize along the front where STP values of
1-2 may emerge.

...Northern Rockies...
A plume of mid-level moisture (PWATs between 0.4 to 0.5 inches) was
recently observed in regional 00z RAOBs across the Great Basin
region. This air mass will largely remain in place over the next 24
hours ahead of an approaching upper low out of northern CA. This
mid-level moisture will support another day of fairly modest
surface-based buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE), but persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined with somewhat
deep boundary-layer mixing (LCLs forecast to be around 2 km) may
support another day of strong to severe downburst winds with the
more robust convective cells.

..Moore/Halbert.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121256
SWODY1
SPC AC 121254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.

...Texas/Southern Plains...
A rather complex scenario exists early today attributable to several
factors including an MCS that de-intensified/decayed generally near
I-35 in Texas overnight, with residual cloud cover and outflow
impacts. Potentially focused in vicinity of outflow, the passing
mid-level wave and persistent warm/moist advection may support storm persistence and redevelopment/intensification later today across
central Texas into parts of east Texas and possibly Louisiana within
a moderately unstable environment.

In the wake of the mid-level wave, mid-level height rises/subsidence
are otherwise anticipated coincident with the dryline from central
Kansas south-southwestward across western Oklahoma and
west/southwest Texas. The extent and likelihood of storm development
later today is highly uncertain, but if/where storms do form, the
environment would generally be supportive of supercells and related
hazards given ample buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
A surface low over the northern Plains will migrate eastward along
the U.S./Canadian border through the day, reaching northern
Minnesota by around peak heating. A narrow tongue of returning
moisture may support a corridor of sufficient ascent and buoyancy
for deep convection. A few surface-based supercells could occur
along the frontal zone where dewpoints may reach into the mid/upper
50s F. While this potential appears low/uncertain per latest
guidance, some tornado threat could materialize along the front.
Hail/wind will otherwise be possible regionally on an isolated
basis.

...Northern Rockies...
Ahead of an approaching upper wave, mid-level moisture will support
another day of fairly modest surface-based buoyancy with persistent
30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer. Combined with
somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing, this may support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121630
SWODY1
SPC AC 121629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today into
evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby parts
of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur across
portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.

Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment, characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.

...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121958
SWODY1
SPC AC 121956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible today
into evening mainly across parts of Texas and perhaps other nearby
parts of the southern Plains. More isolated severe storms may occur
across portions of the Upper Great Lakes and northern Rockies.

...20z Update Central TX...
Filtered diurnal heating in the wake of earlier showers and storms
across much of central TX was supporting moderate destabilization
this afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates are generally poor,
sufficient destabilization should support a gradual uptick in
convective coverage this afternoon and evening. With moderate
deep-layer shear in place, some organization could support a risk
for damaging gusts, hail, and tornado or two.

...MN/WI...
The aforementioned warm front continues to surge north but has
slowed farther south than earlier guidance. Weak to moderate
destabilization along and just south of the boundary will remain
supportive of a conditions supercell risk this afternoon/evening.
Strong shear profiles east of the surface low and near the rapidly
modifying boundary could support a risk for hail and possibly a
tornado. Have shifted severe probabilities southward slightly to
better match the observed frontal positioning. See MCD #390 for the
latest information.

...OK/KS/TX Panhandle...
A conditional risk for a supercell or two remains evident this
afternoon across the dryline in the central and southern Plains.
Ample heating in the wake of an early morning MCS could allow for
isolated storm this afternoon or evening as the dryline is forecast
to mix eastward before eventually retreating. Forecast guidance
continues to show weak subsidence suppressing convective
development, but deepening cumulus evident over the southern TX
Panhandle could support an isolated storm this evening. All severe
hazards would be possible.

...Intermountain West...
Steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the cold core of the upper low
over the West will continue to support scattered high-based storms
this afternoon. With a relatively dry-sub cloud layer, somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds.

..Lyons.. 04/12/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave troughs
over the Plains, one moving through the Dakotas and another moving
through KS/OK. Both of these waves are forecast to continue
northeastward through the day, with the northern wave reaching
northwestern Ontario and the southern wave reaching the Great Lakes
region. This evolution will take these waves east/northeast of the
higher low-level moisture, which will remain in a corridor from the
southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated throughout much of this corridor
today, with highest thunderstorm chances across central/east TX and
from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.

Farther west, an upper low is slowly drifting eastward across
northern CA. Guidance suggests this eastward drift will continue
today, with several shortwave troughs rotating quickly through the
base of this system and ejecting across the Great Basin and northern
Rockies. Large-scale ascent and modest mid-level moisture associated
with these waves will combine with cold temperatures aloft and
associated buoyancy to support thunderstorms today from northern CA
across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies, and into the
northern Plains.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Much of this region will be displaced south and west of any notable
large-scale forcing for ascent. This limited ascent, combined with
the showers and isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing across
central and east TX, complicates the overall forecast today, with
mesoscale factors likely contributing significantly to when and
where storms develop this afternoon and evening. General expectation
is for development along the southern and western periphery on the
ongoing storms (i.e. from southeast/south-central TX into southwest
TX) later this afternoon and this evening. This redevelopment will
be supported by a combination of moist advection, modest heating,
and limited low-level convergence. Moderate to strong buoyancy amid
moderate vertical shear could support supercells if the mode remains
discrete. However, the weakness in the mid-level flow suggests
storms may tend to cluster, a scenario that is supported by most CAM
guidance. Buoyancy and shear are still strong enough to support
rotating updrafts and large hail early in the convective cycle, but
the trends towards a messy convective mode could limit the
persistence and coverage of robust updrafts. Damaging gusts are
possible even with the clustered storm mode, especially given there
is some potential for slightly more organized bowing segments over
time.

Farther west, mid-level height rises/subsidence are anticipated
coincident with the dryline from central Kansas south-southwestward
across western Oklahoma and west/southwest Texas. The environment, characterized by 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 40 kt of
westerly deep-layer shear, is conditionally supportive of supercells
capable of all severe hazards. However, the previously mentioned
height rises and subsidence, combined with modest convective
inhibition, are generally expected to preclude thunderstorm
development. Even so, given the conditional risk, Marginal risk
probabilities will be maintained.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin...
Recent surface analysis places a low just west of FAR, with a warm
front extending southwestward across central/southeast MN and
southern WI. This low is forecast to move eastward today, while the
warm front expands northward. A narrow corridor of surface-based
buoyancy could develop from north-central MN into far northwest WI
as dewpoints increase in the upper 50s (perhaps even low 60s).
Thunderstorm initiation appears possible along the cold front within
this corridor, although veered low-level flow and northward/westward displacement of the better forcing casts doubt to whether updrafts
will be maintained. Any storms that do mature within this warm
sector should become supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including large hail and tornadoes. However, low confidence in storm development and maturity precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook.

...Northern Rockies...
Mid-level moisture will support another day of modest surface-based
buoyancy ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
Persistent 30-40 knot flow within the CAPE-bearing layer combined
with somewhat deep boundary-layer mixing will support strong to
severe downburst winds with the more robust convective cells, mainly
this afternoon through early evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130051
SWODY1
SPC AC 130049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this
evening across portions of central Texas and perhaps central/western
Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Mid-evening surface observations reveal an expansive warm sector
from the TX coast northward into the Plains and upper MS Valley.
Despite a high-quality thermodynamic environment throughout much of
this warm sector, a combination of residual capping across the upper
MS Valley and/or very weak ascent in the wake of an upper-level
disturbance is limiting the overall potential for thunderstorms
outside of the southern Plains. Across the West, convective coverage
is gradually diminishing and will continue to dwindle heading into
the late evening hours as nocturnal cooling begins to increase
inhibition.

...Southern Plains...
The most intense convection currently resides to the west of the
I-35 corridor in central TX where strong to severe thunderstorms
have developed on the western fringe of an expanding cold pool.
MLCAPE values to the west of the cold pool were recently sampled
near 2500 J/kg by the DRT and OUN soundings with around 30-35 knots
of effective bulk shear also noted. This environment is favorable
for organized convection, including splitting supercells with some
potential for large to very large hail. However, close proximity to
the residual cold pool should limit the overall spatial extent of
this threat, and most guidance depicts this activity waning later
tonight in the absence of persistent forcing for ascent.

Further north into western Oklahoma and northwest TX, continued
cumulus development along a diffuse dryline is noted in GOES
imagery. While storm development appears unlikely given the
approaching onset of nocturnal cooling, the downstream environment
remains highly favorable for intense convection per the 00z OUN
RAOB, and recent RRFS solutions hint at the potential for convection
within the next 1-3 hours (though these solutions appear to be
outliers compared to other guidance). Given this signal and the
favorable environment, opted to maintain 5% hail/wind probabilities
to account for this low-probability, but potentially high impact
scenario.

..Moore.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130536
SWODY1
SPC AC 130534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
late this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough with
multiple embedded vorticity maxima over the Great Basin. While the
primary upper wave will remain over the West for today, a leading
impulse is forecast to eject towards the northern Plains and into
the Great Lakes through tonight. At the surface, a weak lee cyclone
over the central High Plains will migrate northeastward in tandem
with the upper impulse, likely reaching the southern MN vicinity by
early evening. As this occurs, a plume of mid-60s dewpoints will
spread north into the upper MS Valley along and south of a warm
front. Scattered thunderstorm development along and north of the
warm front is anticipated by late afternoon as forcing for ascent
gradually increases. Elsewhere, more isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of TX and OK where deep
mixing along a dryline may result in sustained deep convection.

...Upper MS Valley...
A combination of shortwave ridging and capping at the base of an EML
will limit thunderstorm development through much of the day across
southern MN into central WI. This will allow for continued moisture
return as a warm front lifts into the region with MLCAPE values
forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg by around 21 UTC. Thunderstorm
development will become increasingly probable through the 21-00 UTC
period as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching
upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 knot
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells
along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph elongation
appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as large as 2-3
inches with the more robust cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level
SRH along the frontal zone may result in a corridor of relatively
higher tornado potential if convection can remain rooted along the
boundary.

While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense
convection, east/northeasterly storm motions along or just north of
the warm front will likely promote storm advection towards the cool
side of the boundary and clustering/upscale growth through the
evening. This, combined with capping over the remainder of the warm
sector, limits confidence in a more widespread tornado threat, and
could modulate the potential for significant (2+ inch) hail within a
few hours after convective initiation. Nonetheless, a corridor of
higher hail potential remains evident in latest guidance along and
just north of the warm front where discrete supercells are most
probable. 30% hail probabilities have been shifted to reflect a
southward trend in frontal placement noted in most recent guidance.

...Southern Plains...
A moist and very unstable air mass will remain in place across TX
and OK today with MLCAPE values expected to increase to around 2500
J/kg by late afternoon. Ample diurnal heating/mixing on the western
periphery of the moisture plume will likely result in weak,
high-based convection by mid to late afternoon. Easterly storm
motions may promote downstream intensification as convection
migrates towards richer low-level moisture, but this will be
conditional on convection remaining sustained long enough to realize
the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this can occur,
deep-layer shear values on the order of 40 knots should promote
organized convection - likely in the form of supercells - with an
attendant threat for all hazards, including very large hail. While
both global and CAM ensemble guidance hint at this potential, the
lack of appreciable lifting mechanisms (aside from the dryline circulation/boundary-layer mixing) casts considerable uncertainty on
overall storm coverage.

..Moore/Wendt.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131301
SWODY1
SPC AC 131300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more conditional and isolated risk for severe storms is
possible across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon
and evening.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska this morning into far
southern Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.

Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. Lingering inhibition coupled
with 45-50 kt effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete
supercells along or just north of the surface boundary. Hodograph
elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat, possibly as
large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust cells.
Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone is
expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.

While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded circulation
potential.

...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
There is the potential that a somewhat separate corridor of
severe-weather potential may unfold today, potentially born out of
subtle mid-level wave and early morning convection across northeast
Missouri vicinity and/or development later today. The initially
elevated storms would be on the edge of the
east/northeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear could support initially
isolated hail potential, but a more organized surface-based severe
risk could manifest if some of the more-aggressive early morning
short-term guidance trends materialize (HRRR/RAP/RRFS).

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg.

The extent/likelihood of sustained deep convection later today is a
key question. The primary southern-stream trough will be well
upstream over the southwest Desert, with neutral height tendencies
across the southern Plains, although early morning water vapor
imagery and derived wind data suggest that a subtle disturbance over
northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could approach the
dryline/warm sector later today.

Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence may be sufficient for deep convective
initiation after 21z/4pm CDT, at least an isolated basis. Forecast
mass fields would imply that this is most probable across
central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country, and
perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande
vicinity.

If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail. An increased confidence in deep
convective initiation late this afternoon/early evening could
warrant focus Slight Risk delineations in subsequent Day 1 updates.

...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms capable of hail/wind will be
possible late this afternoon into evening along/north of the surface
front where modest low-level moisture and vertical shear will be
maximized, in the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131638
SWODY1
SPC AC 131636

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHERN IOWA...AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across
portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern
Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a
slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.

Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the
case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin,
cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells.
Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat,
possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust
cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone
is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.

While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded
circulations.

...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the
potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather
potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning
convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity
and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated
storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated
mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear
could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more
organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this
afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally
intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased,
although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are
still uncertain.

A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle
disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could
approach the dryline/warm sector later today.

Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep
convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and
some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable
across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country,
and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio
Grande vicinity.

If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail.

...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped
supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon
into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest
low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131957
SWODY1
SPC AC 131956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN IOWA...AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain likely across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large
hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into
tonight. A more isolated risk for severe storms is possible across
portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.

...20z Update Upper Midwest...
Afternoon visible imagery showed diurnal heating ongoing south of
the stalled front from the eastern SD across southern MN into
central WI. Moderate destabilization should support scattered to
numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially
supercells are likely, given strongly veering wind profiles and
moderate deep-layer flow. All hazards are possible with these
storms. With time, upscale growth into one or more lines or clusters
appears likely as storms spread eastward into the Great Lakes.

Convective development appears likely along the triple point near
the surface low from northeast/eastern NE into southeastern SD.
Supercell wind profiles and moderate buoyancy would support a risk
for large hail and some damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two may
occur as any supercells that develop move eastward into deeper
low-level moisture across northwestern IA and southern MN.

...Southern and Central Plains...
Towering cumulus along a dryline over parts of KS/OK/TX may support
isolated storm development late this afternoon. A conditionally
favorable environment (3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective
shear) for supercells will support a risk for all hazards. See MCD
#399 for short term information. The primary change for this outlook
was to extend severe probabilities northeastward into eastern KS.
Guidance and observational trends have shown an increased likelihood
of a storm or two this afternoon.

..Lyons.. 04/13/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026/

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes including MN/WI/IA...
Multiple lead mid-level disturbances over the northern High Plains
will progress northeastward today toward the Upper Midwest, with
strengthening winds aloft across this region particularly late today
and tonight. A surface low will tend to deepen/develop
east-northeastward from northeast Nebraska into far southern
Minnesota and Wisconsin by tonight in vicinity of a
slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary. Low/middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will advect north-northeastward and become increasingly
prevalent along/south of the aforementioned stationary/warm front
this afternoon. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000-2500 J/kg
by around 21z/4pm CDT.

Thunderstorm development will become increasingly probable through
mid/late afternoon (21-00z) as isentropic ascent strengthens ahead
of the approaching upper disturbance. This should especially be the
case near the primary boundary. However, semi-discrete warm sector supercellular development, across areas such as southern Wisconsin,
cannot be ruled out. Lingering inhibition coupled with 45-50 kt
effective bulk shear should promote initially discrete supercells.
Hodograph elongation appears favorable for a large hail threat,
possibly as large as 2-3 inches in diameter with the more robust
cells. Additionally, enhanced low-level SRH along the frontal zone
is expected to result in a corridor of relatively higher tornado
potential for storms that can remain rooted immediately along the
boundary.

While the overall environment appears very favorable for intense convection/supercells, east-northeasterly storm motions along or
just north of the warm front will likely promote clustering/upscale
growth through the evening, with an increasing damaging wind
potential and a continued tornado risk via line-embedded
circulations.

...Northern Illinois/northern Indiana and southern Lake Michigan...
See Mesoscale Discussion 395 for short-term details. There is the
potential that a somewhat separate corridor of severe-weather
potential today, potentially via a subtle mid-level wave and morning
convection across northeast Missouri/northwest Illinois vicinity
and/or additional development later today. The initially elevated
storms are on the edge of the east/northeastward-advecting elevated
mixed layer. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 35+ kt effective shear
could support initially isolated hail potential, but a more
organized surface-based severe risk could materialize later this
afternoon, although the specific details remain uncertain.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma/Texas...
Confidence/potential for isolated to widely scattered locally
intense storms later this afternoon has incrementally increased,
although specifics regarding the extent of convective initiation are
still uncertain.

A moist and potentially unstable air mass will persist regionally to
the east of a dryline located around peak heating from east-central
Kansas south-southwestward into west-central Oklahoma and western
north Texas to the Texas Big Bend vicinity. Immediately east of the
dryline, warm-sector dewpoints are expected to generally be in the
middle 60s F, supporting MLCAPE values to 2500-3000 J/kg. A subtle
disturbance over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies could
approach the dryline/warm sector later today.

Regardless, ample post-dryline mixing and near-dryline
confluence/weak convergence should be sufficient for isolated deep
convective initiation after 21z/4pm CDT. Forecast mass fields and
some short-term guidance would imply that this is most probable
across central/southwest Oklahoma into the north Texas Big Country,
and perhaps somewhat separately across the Texas Big Bend and Rio
Grande vicinity.

If/where storms develop and mature, deep-layer shear on the order of
40+ kt will support supercells, potentially capable of all hazards
including very large hail.

...Northern High Plains...
Generally isolated severe storms including a few low-topped
supercells capable of hail/wind are possible late this afternoon
into evening along/north of the surface front. This is where modest
low-level moisture and vertical shear will be maximized, in the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140056
SWODY1
SPC AC 140054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large
hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, through the overnight hours. A
more focused risk for severe storms will continue through late
evening across the southern to central Plains.

...Synopsis...
Late-evening surface analysis reveals a slow-moving surface low over
eastern NE with a warm frontal zone draped eastward into southern MN
and central WI. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
along the frontal zone as of 01 UTC and will likely continue through
much of the overnight hours across the upper MS Valley and the
Midwest. Further south, several attempts at convective initiation
have been noted along a dryline draped from eastern NE southward
into KS, OK, and TX. Although additional attempts at thunderstorm
development are possible over the next few hours, the primary severe
risk will be focused across the Kansas City metro area where a
cluster of supercells has emerged.

....Upper MS Valley/Midwest...
Scattered supercells are ongoing across southern MN and into central
WI along and north of the surface warm front. A tornado and
significant (2+ inch) hail threat will likely persist for the next
couple of hours, but the expectation is for increased storm
clustering and upscale growth through the overnight hours. The
developing MCS will likely spread east/southeast into southern WI
and possibly northern IL prior to 12 UTC Tuesday with an attendant
risk for severe winds.

...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
A cluster of supercells has emerged across eastern KS over the past
few hours and will likely continue to spread east into western MO
through late evening. Given very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematics noted in the 00z TOP sounding, this activity will likely
continue to pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. 15%
hail and 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced to account
for this localized threat.

...Southern Plains...
GOES imagery over the past few hours has shown several attempts at
convective initiation across OK and TX; however, most of these
attempts have failed due to very meager/localized ascent along the
dryline. While one strong storm is noted across northwest TX, the
potential for new storm development should wane through the evening
given residual inhibition noted in 00z soundings and as nocturnal
cooling begins to diminish the dryline circulation. Because of this,
opted to remove 15% risk probabilities, but maintain some risk
probabilities given the ongoing convection and otherwise very
favorable convective environment.

..Moore.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140551
SWODY1
SPC AC 140550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight
from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large
hail, a few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional severe storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast this afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper wave is evident in recent water-vapor imagery across the
southern Great Basin. This trough will translate east into the
Plains through today, reaching the Great Lakes region by tonight.
This will support slight deepening of a diffuse surface low analyzed
over the central High Plains as it drifts east towards the lower MO
River Valley. Ahead of the low, an expansive warm sector
(characterized by widespread mid to upper 60s dewpoints) remains in
place from the southern Plains northeastward into the upper MS
Valley region. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected along a
composite outflow boundary/warm front from eastern IA into southern
WI/northern IL as well as along a dryline draped from eastern KS
into OK and TX. Further east, a mid-level wave associated with
ongoing convection over the Great Lakes will support re-intensification/re-development of strong/severe storms across the
Northeast.

...Midwest...
An outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS across the Great
Lakes will likely be draped across the Midwest early this morning.
This boundary is forecast to drift northward within a southerly flow
regime as an effective warm front ahead of the approaching surface
low and upper wave. Latest guidance generally depicts this boundary
stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late afternoon when
daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave will erode
inhibition and promote convective initiation along the boundary.

Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE
values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined
with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable
for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should
initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells
along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to
2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary
may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential,
including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time,
easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale
growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening
hours.

The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late
afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to
reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a
consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will
be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS.
Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may
modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat.

...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas...
Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined
with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support isolated
to perhaps scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into TX
this afternoon. Consensus among latest HREF/REFS guidance is that
initiation is most probable across northwest TX into central OK -
possibly ahead of a subtle mid-level wave, though in reality the
unfocused nature of the broad-scale ascent suggests that initiation
will be possible anywhere along the dryline where low-level
convergence can be maximized. Regardless, ample buoyancy within the
warm sector (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE sampled in evening RAOBs) coupled
with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear will support supercells
with an attendant threat for large hail (possibly exceeding 2 inches
in diameter). Some tornado threat will likely materialize around and
after 00 UTC as the nocturnal jet strengthens and enlarges low-level hodographs.

...Northeast...
A low-amplitude upper wave associated with an ongoing MCS across the
Great Lakes will migrate eastward towards the Northeast through the
day. Residual convection associated with the MCS may linger through
morning before re-intensifying by early afternoon as daytime heating
supports steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE
values (likely up to the 500-1000 J/kg range). While buoyancy will
likely remain weak, 35-40 knot bulk shear through the CAPE-bearing
layer and focused ascent ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave will
likely support organization of convective bands with an attendant
threat for strong to severe winds.

..Moore/Wendt.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141239
SWODY1
SPC AC 141237

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR IOWA INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight
from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail,
several tornadoes (some strong), and severe gusts will be possible, particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.

...Midwest...
An MCV near the IL-IN border this morning and southward-moving
outflow are linked to thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Corn
Belt. This outflow boundary will likely stall with the western
portion of the boundary advancing northward within a strengthening
warm conveyor this afternoon. Guidance generally depicts this
boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late
afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave
will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the
boundary. A moist airmass upstream over the lower MO Valley will
advect northeast beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the
12 UTC Topeka, KS raob). MLCAPE at or above 2500 J/kg is forecast
by mid-late afternoon from IA into the IA-WI-IL border vicinity.
Initial storms later this afternoon will rapidly become supercells
with all severe hazards possible. Large to giant hail and an
intense tornado will be possible with the more mature/strongest
supercells where SRH is locally maximized near the boundary.
Upscale growth into a severe cluster is forecast to eventually
evolve during the evening aided by a strong southwesterly LLJ into
the southern Great Lakes. If a supercell develops ahead of the
eastward-moving cluster, a tornado threat could develop as the
boundary layer quickly recovers/destabilizes.

...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas...
Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined
with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support
scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into western north
TX this afternoon into the evening. Aligning with earlier thinking,
strong heating and perhaps weak ascent tied to a subtle mid-level
wave, will favor storm development by 20-22z as convective
inhibition erodes. A very unstable airmass characterized by
2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs will strongly favor
supercells. The strength of low-level shear remains unclear during
the early evening, when the tornado risk could maximize.
Nonetheless, increased confidence in widely scattered to scattered
supercells yielding a risk for large to giant hail prompted an
increase in hail and hail-intensity highlights this outlook update.

...Northeast...
A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake
Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the
day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will
contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and
strengthening winds with height will support storm organization,
including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms
is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being
the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to
account for hazards associated with supercells.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/14/2026

$$

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