ACUS03 KWNS 191931
SWODY3
SPC AC 191929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the
Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians, and also across parts of
the Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
Some deamplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on
Saturday, with a transition to more zonal flow across much of the
western and central CONUS. A large-scale upper trough will remain in
place across much of the East, with a weak embedded shortwave
expected to move from the Mid MS Valley toward the Southeast.

...TN Valley into parts of GA and the Carolinas...
A weak front that moves into the region late D2/Friday is forecast
to stall and potentially become rather ill-defined with time, as a
surface low deepens well to the northwest across the north-central
Plains. A remnant moisture/instability gradient is still depicted by
guidance to be draped from TN into the southern Appalachians and SC
by Saturday afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE
potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) will be possible along/south of
the remnant boundary, and isolated storm development may occur as
the weakening shortwave trough moves across the region.

Deep-layer shear will generally remain rather modest within the weak northwest-flow regime, and storm coverage may tend to remain limited
due to weak large-scale ascent. As a result, confidence in an
organized-severe threat is currently too low for probabilities,
though isolated strong storms with localized hail and/or wind-damage
potential cannot be ruled out, and a Marginal Risk may eventually be
needed for parts of the region.

..Dean.. 03/19/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260719
SWODY3
SPC AC 260718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will be prevalent across much of the CONUS
as a broad region of high pressure builds over the eastern Plains/OH
Valley in the wake of a strong frontal passage during the D2/Friday
to early D3/Saturday period. This front is forecast to reside across
the northern Gulf and into the northern FL peninsula by 12 UTC
Saturday, and will continue to migrate south through the day before
stalling over south FL during the evening/overnight hours. Although
forcing for ascent should steadily diminish given the frontolytic
nature of the boundary, weak low-level ascent within a moist and
weakly capped environment may support a few thunderstorms.
Displacement from stronger flow aloft will limit storm organization
and longevity, which should preclude organized convection. Based on extended-range RRFS and MPAS solutions, as well as ensemble QPF
signals, the best potential for thunderstorms should emerge across
the Lake Okeechobee vicinity and areas westward to the FL Gulf
coast.

..Moore.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261845
SWODY3
SPC AC 261844

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft will deamplify as an upper trough moves
offshore the eastern U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front
will extend across the northern Gulf into the FL Peninsula Saturday
morning. As the front develops southward through the day, isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern
FL Peninsula. Modest instability and weak vertical shear will
preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, a dry and stable
airmass will reside across much of the CONUS in the wake of the
prior cold frontal passage.

..Leitman.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030714
SWODY3
SPC AC 030713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Sunday from
eastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia and far southern
Maryland.

...Eastern North Carolina/Far Southeast Virginia/Far Southern
Maryland...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward through
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. Weak instability will
develop ahead of the front during the day, with thunderstorms
forming and moving eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. A marginal
severe threat may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina,
far southeast Virginia and far southern Maryland, where deep-layer
shear may be strong enough for multicells with isolated severe
gusts. The threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon
when low-level lapse rates will be steepest.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031931
SWODY3
SPC AC 031930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Mid Atlantic
Coast vicinity Sunday, accompanied by at least some risk for
damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that a broad, deep occluded surface
cyclone may deepen at least a bit further while migrating
east-northeastward across Quebec during this period. Renewed
cyclogenesis appears possible across the Canadian Maritimes by
Sunday evening, with a trailing cold front advancing offshore of the
northern through middle Atlantic coast by early Monday, while
slowing/stalling across parts of northern Florida.

Pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization, where deep-layer mean
flow and shear appears sufficient to support convective
organization, is forecast to remain weak, due to generally weak
tropospheric lapse rates. It appears that this may become focused
along lee surface troughing across and east of the Carolina
Piedmont, perhaps as far north as a developing low/frontal wave
across south central Virginia into the southern Delmarva Peninsula
by late Sunday afternoon.

Forcing for ascent, downstream of a short wave impulse progressing
through the base of approaching larger-scale mid-level troughing, is
likely to aid convective development, with sheared, 30-50 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer contributing
convective organization with potential to produce damaging wind
gusts. A narrow broken squall line may evolve, with perhaps
embedded supercell structures which could also pose the risk for a
tornado or two while spreading toward coastal areas by early Sunday
evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130727
SWODY3
SPC AC 130726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few
tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from
northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat
appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the
evening and overnight hours.

...Discussion...
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains
during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by
00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will
rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing
across AR, MO, IL and IN.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO
and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward
across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality
will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into
southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday
morning.

Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late
afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as
1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial
variability exists among models regarding instability and capping,
though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors.
Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.

Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of
widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing
during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of
southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear
environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while
forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more
than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing
corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes.
Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a
very strong frontal surge out of the west.

The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks
as the event nears and predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131933
SWODY3
SPC AC 131932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely
on late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas
to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind threat appears to be
from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during
the evening and overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A 100+ knot mid-level jet will lead to rapid amplification as it
rounds the base of the mid-level trough across the Central Plains on
Sunday. As the associated surface cyclone moves northeastward
through the day, strong low-level moisture transport will occur
across the warm sector. This will result in weak to potentially
moderate instability ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. This
cold front will accelerate east-southeastward from the Midwest to
the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and from Ohio to
western Georgia/eastern Alabama by Monday morning.

....Ohio Valley...
Despite dewpoints only increasing to the mid to upper 50s, a very
favorable kinematic environment will be in place with a 70 knot
low-level jet and nearly 125 knot mid-level jet by Monday morning.
Given this wind field, any instability, combined with the strong
frontal forcing, will be sufficient for a powerful QLCS during the
evening and overnight hours. This squall line will likely have
widespread 60+ mph wind gusts with some stronger 75+ mph wind gusts
possible.

In addition, very long hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH will
support a threat for line-embedded tornadoes, some of which could be
strong. Additionally, the strong shear may also allow for some
embedded supercells, also depicted by the 12Z RRFS, which also may
lead to a locally greater tornado threat. Pre-frontal development
cannot be ruled out, especially from northeast Arkansas to southern
Illinois at the nose of the 500mb jet and the northern extent of the
richer low-level moisture. This scenario is more uncertain, but
could pose a greater tornado threat if it were to materialize.

...Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...
The squall line will form during the afternoon, perhaps with some
initial supercell/hail threat across Arkansas and northeast Texas
and then move northeastward through the overnight period. The
strongest low-mid level wind field will remain north of this region,
however, greater instability will compensate and should maintain the
damaging squall line through the overnight hours. The greatest STP
values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM)
between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi
and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to
accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early
morning period.

...FL/AL Coast...
Toward the end of the period, richer low-level moisture will begin
to move inland across the FL Panhandle into southern Alabama. Within
this zone, discrete convection may develop after 08Z. If this were
to occur, strong shear would support supercells capable of
tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200721
SWODY3
SPC AC 200720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening
across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward into
the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a cold
front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is forecast
to develop across much of the Ohio Valley. Increasing low-level
convergence along the front during the afternoon will help
thunderstorms to initiate, with storms increasing in coverage in the
late afternoon and early evening. A large area of storms is expected
to form along a corridor from southern Illinois east-northeastward
into west-central Pennsylvania. Some of these storms will likely
have a severe threat.

Late afternoon forecast soundings in the Ohio Valley near
Cincinnati, Ohio have MLCAPE increasing to near 1800 J/kg with 0-6
km shear in the 45 to 50 knot range. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse
rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This
environment should support supercells with large hail. The greatest
hail threat may occur somewhat early in the event, when cells are
more likely be discrete. A wind-damage threat is also expected, and
could increase as storms congeal into a line during the early
evening. A more isolated severe threat could develop further to the
southwest into the mid Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon
and early evening.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201904
SWODY3
SPC AC 201903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon and evening
across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley vicinity...

Westerly mid/upper flow will amplify on Sunday as a shortwave trough
deepens across the Great Lakes to the central Appalachians. As this
occurs, a 60-80 kt southwesterly jet max will overspread the Ohio
Valley by late afternoon. Around midday, a cold front will extend
southwest from Lakes Ontario and Erie into northern IN/central
IL/MO. This front will progress southeast through the period,
becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the Lower MS Valley
by Monday morning. Boundary-layer moisture is forecast to remain
somewhat modest across the warm sector ahead of the front (mid 50s
to near 60 F). However, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in
forecast soundings, and model guidance depicts 500 mb temperatures
around -14 to -16 C at 00z. This should support MLCAPE from 500-2000
J/kg.

While forecast wind profiles are generally unidirectional, rapidly
increasing wind speeds with height will result in modestly
enlarged/curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3
km, with effective shear magnitudes 40+ kt. However, the warm sector
is expected to largely remain capped. Low-level frontal convergence
will be the main forcing mechanism as large-scale ascent will arrive
with the front or perhaps delayed behind the front during the
evening. While shear profiles could support supercells, it is
unclear if capping and broad ascent will limit supercell potential,
especially with southwest extent into the Lower Ohio Valley and
Mid-South vicinity. If supercells can develop and persist, large
hail and damaging winds are possible. Once linear convection
develops, severe/damaging wind gust will become the main hazard.
Tornado potential is more uncertain given concerns regarding
low-level moisture, capping, and storm mode/evolution, but a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out.

..Leitman.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270727
SWODY3
SPC AC 270726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida
peninsula and portions of southern Arizona Sunday afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge (currently in place over the Southwest) is
forecast to shift east over the Plains through the day Sunday.
Broad-scale subsidence/height rises ahead of the ridge will promote
mostly dry and stable conditions for the central and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will most likely be relegated to the southern
FL peninsula where weak ascent within a residual frontal zone (aided
by diurnally-drive sea breeze boundaries) may support a few
thunderstorms within a moist and weakly capped environment. While
confidence is lower, isolated convection appears possible across
parts of southern Arizona late Sunday afternoon where modest
low-level moisture advection, coupled with ample daytime heating,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and weak ascent from a mid-level
impulse may support high-based convection. Based on forecast
thermodynamic profiles, conditions may be supportive of strong
downburst winds. However, confidence in storm coverage and the
severe wind potential is too low for highlights.

..Moore.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271912
SWODY3
SPC AC 271911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida
Peninsula and portions of southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico
Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

Quasi-zonal flow is forecast across the CONUS on Sunday while a
mostly dry and stable boundary layer will persist, limiting
thunderstorm potential. The exception will be across portions of the
FL Peninsula and Keys. A seasonally moist airmass will persist near
a decaying frontal boundary. Strong heating will support weak
destabilization and isolated thunderstorms may develop along sea
breeze interactions or the residual frontal boundary. A few
thunderstorms also will be possible across the far southern
AZ/southwest NM vicinity where steep midlevel lapse rates atop
warm/moist advection in lower levels will support sufficient
destabilization. A weak shortwave impulse will migrate across the
region during the late afternoon/evening and could provide enough
ascent for a few thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040724
SWODY3
SPC AC 040723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in
south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move across the Great Lakes on Monday, as a cold front advances
southward into northern Florida. To the south of the front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form within a moist airmass
over the southern and central Florida Peninsula during the
afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be near or below 20
knots, suggesting the storms will remain below severe limits.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to form in the Desert
Southwest. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S.
Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041904
SWODY3
SPC AC 041902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no
severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday. At
the surface, a cold front draped across northern FL will sag
southward. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the front will
support weak destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon across the FL
Peninsula. Weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential. Additional isolated weak
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southwest as an
upper shortwave trough traverses the region.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210712
SWODY3
SPC AC 210711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected on Monday across parts of the
Carolinas and Georgia.

...Carolinas/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the Eastern
Seaboard on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
through the Carolinas, and should be positioned from central Georgia
into central South Carolina by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s F will contribute
to weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the front and move east-southeastward toward the
Atlantic coast during the mid to late afternoon. 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 35 knot range, along with steep low-level lapse rates may be
enough for a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211853
SWODY3
SPC AC 211852

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
GA/SC AND SOUTHERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts
of the Carolinas and Georgia.

...Parts of the Carolinas and Georgia...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near the lower Great
Lakes region is forecast to move offshore of New England by Monday
night. In the wake of this shortwave, a cold front will continue
moving southward across parts of the Carolinas and Southeast. Along
and south of the front, heating and modest low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F) will result in some diurnal
destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing into the
500-1000 J/kg range.

With generally limited frontal convergence and only weak to modest
large-scale ascent, storm coverage may remain isolated near/south of
the front. Modest west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, if
any robust updrafts can be sustained. Isolated hail and/or
strong/damaging gusts could occur with the strongest storms, though
coverage appears limited at this time.

..Dean.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280720
SWODY3
SPC AC 280719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow over the central to northern Rockies is forecast to
increase over the next 48-72 hours as an upper ridge shifts towards
the Southeast and a low-amplitude upper wave begins to translate
along the U.S./Canadian border. Lee cyclone development is
anticipated across the northern High Plains by early Monday with
steady intensification expected as it migrates east ahead of the
upper wave. The deepening surface low will promote northward
moisture return through the MS Valley and into the upper Great Lakes
region while eastward advection of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
takes place aloft. Thunderstorm development appears probable
overnight across the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes region as
isentropic ascent increases along the tightening warm frontal zone
of the cyclone.

Elsewhere, more isolated thunderstorms are possible along the
western FL Gulf coast where sea-breeze ascent within a moist and
weakly capped environment should support a few thunderstorms.
Similarly, isolated convection is possible across parts of the lower
MS Valley within a plume of rich low-level moisture. Another day of
isolated, high-based thunderstorms is expected across portions of
the Southwest. Weak deep-layer wind shear across these regions will
limit severe thunderstorm potential.

....Upper MS Valley/Lake Michigan...
The combination of low-level moistening and steepening lapse rates
aloft will support steady destabilization through Monday and into
Monday night. Model consensus is that 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should
be in place by Monday evening across the southern WI region.
Initially dry and capped low-level profiles will likely preclude
thunderstorm development during the day, though increasing ascent
within the 925-850 mb warm frontal zone should increase thunderstorm
chances during the 00-06 UTC period. While elevated convection
appears likely, hodograph elongation through the CAPE-bearing layer
should support storm organization, including the potential for a
supercell or two. Although storm motions along the frontal zone hint
that some degree of clustering is probable, at least a localized
hail threat should materialize given the favorable buoyancy/shear
environment.

..Moore.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281920
SWODY3
SPC AC 281919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
IOWA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

...Discussion...
A progressive low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across the
northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Monday into Tuesday
morning, with cooling aloft spreading into the upper MS Valley/Great
Lakes late. Ahead of this feature, low pressure will develop over
the northern Plains during the day, translating east across IA and
toward WI overnight and into Tuesday morning.

East of the developing low, a quasi-stationary front will extend
across southern MN into central WI and northern Lower MI, with
little northward progress. Southerly winds across the warm sector
will persist through the period and bring mid 50s F dewpoints
northward toward the surface front. Much of the day looks to be
capped, but increasing lift after 00Z along with persistent
moistening from the southwest will result in elevated instability,
possibly extending as far northern WI/Lower MI. Deep-layer shear
will favor hail.

A conditional risk of a few severe storms may also develop south of
the boundary from eastern IA into northern IL as the low-level jet
increases during the evening. In addition to hail, the warm/dry
sub-cloud layer would favor potential damaging gusts with any
cluster of storms.

..Jewell.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071852
SWODY3
SPC AC 071852

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO KANSAS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into KS, and southward across the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough embedded within larger-scale troughing
across the northern U.S. will pivot eastward across the northern
Plains to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Meanwhile, low-amplitude
upper ridging over the West will meander eastward toward the
Rockies. At the surface, a boundary will be oriented west to east
across northern KS and northern MO while a surface dryline extends south/southwest across western KS into western TX. Neutral height
tendencies across the southern Plains will preclude stronger surface cyclogenesis, but weak lee surface troughing is forecast across the
High Plains.

...Central Plains to Mid-MO Valley...

Boundary layer moisture will remain modest across the warm sector,
with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support MUCAPE to
around 1000-1500 J/kg near the west to east surface front.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with 40-50 kt flow through much of
the cloud bearing layer will support supercell wind profiles with
effective shear greater than 40 kt. Large-scale ascent is forecast
to remain modest, with the main midlevel shortwave passing to the
north of the area. However, convergence along the boundary and
continued warm advection into the evening as a low-level jet
increases should be sufficient for scattered thunderstorm
development. Isolated large hail will be possible with this activity
from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern High Plains...

A more conditional severe thunderstorm environment will exist
further south along the dryline across western TX toward southwest
KS. Strong heating and mixing along the boundary, and low-level
convergence may be sufficient for a few storms developing by
evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE to around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will remain modest, generally less
than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated large hail will be
possible with any stronger cells that can develop and be maintained. Additionally, a well mixed boundary-layer and inverted-v sub-cloud
layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally strong wind gusts also
may be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061909
SWODY3
SPC AC 061908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
the central Plains Wednesday evening.

...Central Plains...

A compact upper trough/low will move from the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, low pressure will shift
from southern Manitoba to near James Bay in Ontario. A trailing cold
front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central
Plains. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited due to
persistent surface high pressure across the East, cutting off
stronger Gulf moisture return. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft
(around -15 C at 500 mb) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and
weak instability in a corridor along/just ahead of the cold front
across the central Plains.

Isolated thunderstorms are forecast near the front during the
evening. Vertical shear will be somewhat weak through 6 km, but
effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is evident in forecast
soundings. Furthermore, strong west/northwesterly flow through the
top half of the cloud-bearing layer will result in
lengthened/straight hodographs. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer is
also forecast. This environment marginally supports a few strong to
severe storms capable of producing locally strong gusts, and perhaps
marginally severe hail if updrafts can be sustained.

..Leitman.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070727
SWODY3
SPC AC 070726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected
to develop on Thursday in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley
westward into the central Plains. Isolated severe storms with hail
may also develop in the southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Thursday over much of the northern U.S., with westerly flow in the
central states. At the surface, a slow moving front is forecast to
remain over western and northern Kansas extending eastward into
northern Missouri. The front will be a focus for convection during
the afternoon and evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming
likely. NAM forecast soundings near the front by early evening have
MUCAPE ranging from around 2500 J/kg in north-central Kansas to
around 1200 J/kg in northern Missouri. Effective shear along much of
this east-to-west corridor is forecast to be from 35 to 45 knots,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km. This should support a
marginal severe threat. Supercells with isolated large hail and
strong wind gusts will be possible.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West on Thursday, as westerly mid-level flow remains
in place over the south-central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be located across the southern Plains. A dryline is forecast to
develop over west Texas by Thursday afternoon. Although large-scale
ascent will remain weak, low-level convergence near the dryline may
be enough for isolated convective initiation. Model forecasts
suggest that an axis of moderate instability will be in place to the
east of the dryline by afternoon, with MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500
J/kg range. In addition, steep mid-level lapse rates will be in
place. This should support an isolated large hail threat with any
cells that can initiate, in spite of the limited forcing.

..Broyles.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080714
SWODY3
SPC AC 080713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains eastward
into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the Rockies on Friday,
as mid-level flow remains westerly over the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across far
southern Kansas. Surface heating and low-level convergence along the
front will aid convective initiation during the afternoon. A few
small thunderstorm clusters will be possible from late afternoon
into the evening. Near the front by late afternoon, model forecasts
have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range, and show 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough for a
marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081926
SWODY3
SPC AC 081925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.

...Discussion...
On Friday, an upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with temporary upper ridging over the Plains in advance
of a large upper trough moving across the West. At the surface, high
pressure will exist over the northern Plains to upper MS Valley,
with a cold front roughly from the KS/OK border into central MO, and
extending northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. This front
will become nearly stationary during the day over the Plains, and
will return north overnight as warm front across KS/MO.

Beneath the upper ridge, potential will exist for scattered
thunderstorms along the frontal zone at various times of the day.
Early day storms will be possible from eastern KS into MO and
possibly northern OK, as the Thursday night activity persists into
Friday morning with the aid of a southwesterly low-level jet and
outflows. This activity could pose strong gust potential before
weakening midday.

Additional storms will be possible along the east-west front as
heating occurs to the south of it (and any outflows). Though the
large-scale pattern will not favor significant coverage of severe
storms, isolated strong to severe storms may develop as the air mass
becomes uncapped. Slow-moving severe storms producing large hail
appear most likely across the northern TX to OK Panhandles into
southern KS and northwest OK, in closer proximity to the steeper
lapse rates aloft. Overall, shear will be marginal, but a stationary
storm may briefly show supercell characteristics given the veering
winds with height, producing large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090715
SWODY3
SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and far eastern New
Mexico. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts
of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley.

...Southern High Plains...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will gradually strengthen across the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over much of southern and central
Plains, with surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to mid 60s F. A
surface trough over far eastern New Mexico will be a focus for
convective development as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support
scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening over much
of the southern High Plains. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1200
to 1500 J/kg range over west Texas, where 0-3 km lapse rates should
reach 7.5 and 8 C/km in the late afternoon. This will be favorable
for severe wind gusts. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
between 30 and 40 knots over much of the southern High Plains
suggesting that supercells with large hail will be possible. Severe
threat coverage may peak in the early to mid evening, especially if
an MCS can organize over parts of west-central Texas.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon, as southwesterly mid-level
flow becomes established over much of the north-central U.S. At the
surface, a trough will deepen during the day across the central High
Plains, with moisture advection continuing over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. Weak instability is expected to develop over
much of this airmass by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
remain limited, isolated thunderstorms will be possible in areas
where low-level convergence and surface heating become maximized.
Model forecasts suggest that enough deep-layer shear will be in
place for a marginal severe threat, with hail and isolated severe
gusts possible.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091934
SWODY3
SPC AC 091933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, some producing hail and strong gusts, will
be possible on Saturday across parts of west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. Isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out affecting parts
of central California.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will swing southeastward into central/northern CA late
on Saturday, providing lift and widespread precipitation. To the
east, an upper ridge will be located over the MS Valley during the
day, and this will shift east toward the Appalachians by 12Z Sunday.
In between these features, a broad zone of modest southwest flow
aloft will encompass the Rockies and Plains states.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
eastern states, with gusty south winds helping to bring 50s to 60s F
dewpoints across TX and OK. A lee trough over the High Plains will
be a focus for afternoon storm development, where shear may support
areas of severe storms. Elsewhere, low pressure will also affect
parts of central CA, moving ashore late in the day. This may also
focus a few strong storms.

...Southern Plains...
Low pressure will deepen over the northern and central High Plains,
with gusty south winds bringing 50s F dewpoints as far north as NE
by 00Z. Southeasterly surface winds will also bring moisture
westward across west TX and into eastern NM. Here, strong heating
and a lack of cap will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Shear will not be strong, with only 25-35 kt
southwest winds at 500 mb. Some storms may produce hail, and several
storms or clusters may propagate eastward through the night with
areas of strong to severe gusts possible.

A separate area from northeast CO into KS and western NE may support
a few severe cells producing hail as well, as this area will
experience stronger heating near the deepening surface trough, and
with locally backed surface winds.

...Central CA...
Strong cooling aloft will occur during the afternoon and evening as
the upper low moves toward the area. Weak instability will develop
as lapse rates aloft steepen, though just a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE
is currently forecast. Isolated cells may occur in the central
valley late in the afternoon, and, along a cold front as it
approaches the central coast. Gusty winds and perhaps small hail
will be possible. Severe potential is more uncertain three days out,
but the setup will continue to be monitored in later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100712
SWODY3
SPC AC 100711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Central/Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east across the western U.S. on
Sunday. Low-amplitude, broad southwesterly flow will persist
downstream of the western trough across much of the rest of the U.S.
A weak upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Upper
Midwest through midday before weakening over the Great Lakes during
the afternoon. At the surface, weak troughing will extend from MN
into NE and southward across western KS/OK/TX. Low 60s F dewpoints
will be in place east of the surface trough from TX into IA/IL/WI.

Quite a bit of uncertainty exists for the Day 3 period and forecast
confidence is fairly low. Precipitation will likely be ongoing
across portions of OK/TX, and possibly northward into KS and the
Upper Midwest as a continuation of Day 2 overnight storms and
persistent warm advection. A weak shortwave impulse over the
southern Plains Sunday morning will quickly shift northeast through
midday. It is unclear how this may impact destabilization later in
the day. In the wake of the morning shortwave, large-scale ascent
will remain nebulous. Furthermore, the upper shortwave trough moving
across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest may be ill-timed
with peak heating, and may lead to subsidence across the region
during the afternoon in the wake of this feature.

Nevertheless, some severe risk, albeit conditional, will be possible
across portions of the central/southern Plains, likely focused along
the surface trough/dryline from central KS into western OK and
portions of western/north TX. Supercell vertical wind profiles are
evident in forecast soundings, with weak capping noted just above
850 mb. Steep lapse rates above this layer will be supported by cool temperatures aloft, and MLCAPE values could climb to near 2000 J/kg.
Storm coverage is uncertain, but if storms can develop and become
sustained, all severe hazards will be possible.

A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper
Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on
timing of the aforementioned upper shortwave trough. Given
uncertainty, will introduce low severe probabilities (level 1 of 5)
and trends will be monitored.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101932
SWODY3
SPC AC 101931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a ridge will become established across the eastern CONUS
with a trough advancing slowly inland across the West. A weak
mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes during the period. Persistent mid-level flow across the
Rockies will continue lee troughing and northward moisture transport
across the Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A large area of precipitation is expected to be ongoing Sunday
morning from central Oklahoma to central Texas. This is expected to
move slowly northeast through the day. Subsidence in the wake of the
morning shortwave trough associated with this activity should allow
for recovery ahead of the dryline from West Texas to central Kansas.
In addition, southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow aloft and a well-established EML should assist in erosion of cloud cover across
this region by late morning. Therefore, by late Sunday afternoon,
moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop ahead of the
dryline.

Forcing across the warm sector remains weak and casts considerable conditionality to the forecast. Guidance shows mostly neutral
heights across the dryline during the day. In addition, the dryline
remains relatively diffuse which would not support the strong
convergent circulations necessary for convective initiation.
However, it is worth noting that much of the guidance has a dryline
orientation oriented somewhat northeast to southwest. Therefore, any
convection which develops within this zone may have a long enough
residence time to mature before moving off of the dryline. Given the expectation for minimal inhibition during the afternoon, this may
favor storm development along particular mesoscale corridors along
the dryline Sunday afternoon/early evening in an otherwise weakly
forced environment. Given moderate to potentially strong instability
and moderate shear, large hail (including the potential for 2+ inch
hail) will likely be the primary hazard with any supercells that
develop.

...Central/South Texas...
12Z guidance is fairly consistent with the depiction of a mid-level
shortwave trough moving across northern Mexico during the day
Sunday. Given the strong instability across northern Mexico and
south Texas, it would seem likely for storms to develop along the
higher terrain of northern Mexico during the afternoon/evening ahead
of this trough. Strong instability downstream could maintain these
storms through the evening with some potential for upscale growth
(such as shown by the RRFS). However, significant inhibition on
forecast soundings and minimal QPF signal from the global guidance,
combined with minimal convection over the higher terrain in Mexico
from the other CAM guidance out through 00Z casts some doubt on this
scenario.

An additional scenario is possible across central Texas. At the
southern end of the morning convection, continued storm development
is possible within a supercell environment. This scenario is less
certain given rising heights aloft and will likely be dictated by
the character of the cold pool from Saturday night/Sunday morning
storms. However, this is a scenario depicted by some guidance (most
notably the ECMWF) which could have a locally higher severe weather
threat across this region on Sunday afternoon.

...Upper Midwest...
A conditional supercell environment will also exist across the Upper
Midwest ahead of a surface low, though severe risk will depend on
timing of the mid-level shortwave trough. Uncertainties regarding
storm coverage remain, but will maintain the Marginal Risk and
trends will be monitored.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough from the northern Rockies to southern CA will pivot
east on Monday, overspreading the Four Corners vicinity by early
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east
across the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a
low over the Mid-MO Valley will shift east along a frontal wave
across MN/WI. Persistent southwesterly deep-layer flow over the
Rockies into the Plains will maintain surface lee troughing across
the Plains. Meanwhile, south/southwesterly low-level flow will
maintain 60s F dewpoints from the southern Plains toward Lake
Michigan.

...Upper Midwest...

Some spread among various medium-range guidance in the
placement/track of the surface low leads to some uncertainty
regarding the northward extent of severe potential on Monday.
Nevertheless, a moist airmass will reside ahead of the low in the
vicinity of a surface warm front. Storm coverage is uncertain,
partly due to possibly capping. However, persistent moderate
southwesterly flow atop the front as the low begins to shift east
should provide focus for thunderstorm development during the
afternoon and evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated
hodographs suggest large hail will be possible both within the warm
sector and with any elevated storms on the cool side of the
boundary. Some guidance suggests storms could consolidate into a bow
or linear segment, which would increase damaging wind potential.
However, this scenario is uncertain. Some severe risk will persist
eastward along the warm front into MI overnight. These elevated
storms will mainly pose a hail risk.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Capping is likely to suppress convection along a dryline extending
across eastern KS into western OK/TX. The exception may be across
portions of western TX into southwest OK where modest height falls
could occur toward evening as the western upper trough beings to
slowly shift east toward the southern Rockies. Mid 60s F dewpoints
and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong
destabilization. Strong heating along and west of the dryline will
support mixing and an increasing southerly low-level jet by 00z
could be sufficient for isolated storm development. Supercell wind
profiles will support mainly a risk of large hail, though locally
damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible if storms
develop.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111930
SWODY3
SPC AC 111929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
The pattern on D3/Monday will be characterized by continued
mid-level troughing across the western US, shifting east into the
Great Basin. Strong west to southwesterly flow will continue across
the Rockies into the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A surface low
will shift across SD/NE into the Upper Midwest, with attendant
northward lifting warm front and eventual southward moving cold
front. These features will be the focus of thunderstorm activity
late Monday afternoon across MN/IA/WI will additional development
likely into upper MI through the late evening.

Across the southern/central Plains, a surface dryline will extend
from central KS into western OK/southwest TX. Strong daytime heating
will occur along and ahead of the dryline with an increase in the
low-level jet by the late afternoon/evening and potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.

...Upper Midwest...
Across the Upper Midwest, southerly flow will usher low to mid 60s
dew points northwards into portions of IA/WI/MN as a surface low
shifts eastward. The exact northern extent of this moisture remains
uncertain, however it does appear that thunderstorms will develop
near the low and along or north of the effective warm front across
some portion of IA/MN border, perhaps as far west as southeastern
SD/northern NE. Steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs
suggest large to very large hail (some 2-2.5+ inch in diameter) will
be possible both within the warm sector and with any elevated storms
on the cool side of the boundary. Some consideration was given to
introduction a 30% area, primarily concerning the hail risk, across
the IA/MN border. There still remains uncertainty in guidance of the
coverage of storms in the open warm sector. Through time, storms may consolidate with a shift to damaging wind potential. For now, opted
to expand the Marginal and Slight Risks further west into the
Dakotas but maintain 15% probabilities.

...Central/Southern Plains...
A more conditional threat for thunderstorms will be possible across
the dryline in the central/southern Plains. Through the day, the
environment looks to remain largely capped. Beneath this, strong
daytime heating will yield moderate to strong CAPE within a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Into the late afternoon/evening,
the low-level jet will increase and this may support development of
isolated thunderstorm activity along and ahead of the dryline.
Should this occur, the environment will favor supercells capable of
large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120719
SWODY3
SPC AC 120718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. An upper trough over the western U.S.
will slowly pivot eastward, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Sunday morning. Surface low pressure will remain centered
over the central Plains, with troughing extending southwestward into
west TX. A cold front will slowly sag southward across portions of
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. The surface trough/dryline
and the boundary across the Great Lakes will become a focus for
thunderstorm activity through the forecast period.

...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection may be ongoing across portions of the region Tuesday
morning. This activity should spread east, and persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery during the afternoon.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread mid 60s F dewpoints, and
moderate to strong destabilization is forecast. Stronger height
falls are not expected across the region, as the main upper trough
will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop
a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to
scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. Supercell
wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, suggesting an
all-hazards risk. Given uncertainty related to potential airmass
contamination from early day convection and cloud cover, and
potential capping concerns, will maintain Slight risk (level 2 of
5). However, a rather volatile thermodynamic and kinematic
environment will exist across portions of the region, and higher
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks depending on
forecast trends and mesoscale details.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally begins to
eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence along a
surface dryline should support at least isolated storm development
by around 00z. Steep midlevel lapse rates and mid/upper 60s F
dewpoints will support strong destabilization amid supercell wind
profiles. Large to very large hail will be possible in addition to
strong wind gusts and a tornado or two.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121932
SWODY3
SPC AC 121930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
The western US trough will eject across the Rockies on Tuesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the Plains into the Great
Lakes Region. A surface low will deepen across western KS/NE with a
warm front lifting across the Lower Missouri Valley into the Great
Lakes and sharpening dryline across the southern/central Plains. A
cold front will sag southward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
vicinity. The surface trough/dryline and the boundary across the
Great Lakes will become a focus for thunderstorm activity through
the forecast period.

...Lower MO Valley to the Great Lakes...
Convective coverage will overlap the start of the period near 12z on
Tuesday across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Trends
are for relatively quick clearing across portions of central Iowa
into Illinois. As the warm front lifts northward, strong daytime
heating is expected amid dew points in the low to mid 60s. It is
likely the air mass will recover with potential for moderate to
strong instability by the afternoon. Stronger height falls are not
expected across the region, as the main upper trough
will be focused well to the southwest. However, warm advection atop
a southward-sagging surface boundary should support isolated to
scattered storm development by late afternoon/evening. The primary
risk will be for large to very large hail ( some 2.5"+ in diameter)
and damaging wind.

By late afternoon/evening, 700 mb flow will strengthen (around 50-60
kts) with a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rate nosing into
central Iowa/northern Illinois from the southwest. The 850 mb
low-level jet also increases, with large clockwise curved hodographs
developing with the resulting increase in low-level shear. If
supercells can develop and maintain residency along or south of the
warm front, a corridor of greater tornado risk (a couple of which
may be strong tornadoes) may present itself.

Consideration was given to a 30 percent area (primarily hail
driven). With some uncertainty remaining in morning convection and
coverage of storms in the afternoon/evening, the 15% was maintained
with this outlook until more information can be gleaned from hi-res
guidance.

...Southern Plains...
Ahead of the dryline across the Southern Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected. Large-scale ascent will begin overspreading the
region by late afternoon/evening as the western upper trough finally
begins to eject eastward. As this occurs, mixing and convergence
along a surface dryline should support storm development by around
00z. If little convective development occurs on D2/Monday, a
relatively undisturbed moist/very unstable air mass will be in
place. It is likely that rather robust thunderstorm development will
occur along the dryline, with the primary mode being supercelluar.
Large to very large hail (2 to locally 2.5+ inches in diameter),
damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Given
that deep layer shear profiles have more of a parallel component to
the dryline, storm interactions may keep the period of more discrete
supercell thunderstorms short, with a shift to clusters of mix-mode
supercell and multi-cell storms.

..Thornton.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130717
SWODY3
SPC AC 130716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...

An upper trough will move from the Plains to the MS Valley vicinity
on Wednesday. As associated corridor of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread a moist/unstable airmass ahead of a
surface dryline. The southern Plains portion of the dryline will not
move too much on Wednesday. However, the northern extent of this
boundary will intersect a weak surface low moving from the Lower MO
Valley toward Lake Michigan. This portion of the boundary will
advance eastward toward the MS River during the evening/overnight
hours.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of
the region Wednesday morning. As a result, there is uncertainty
regarding how the boundary layer may recover/destabilize during the
afternoon. Nevertheless, at least pockets of moderate
destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) are expected within a
corridor along and east of the surface boundary. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will be sufficient for organized
convection, with large hail and strong wind gusts being the primary
hazards.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131922
SWODY3
SPC AC 131921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible across portions of the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will move eastward from the Plains into the
Upper Midwest on Wednesday, with continued enhanced west to
southwesterly flow across the southern Plains into the Great Lakes
Region. The surface dryline will remain in a similar location from
Tuesday, extending across western Oklahoma into southwestern and
western Texas. A surface low will shift eastward across IA into WI,
with a cold front shifting south and east through the period.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Southern
Plains into the Upper Midwest along the aforementioned boundaries
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains to Great Lakes...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
start of the period at 12z Wednesday across much of the Slight Risk
region. A secondary round of thunderstorm development is likely to
occur near and ahead of the dryline extending from west Texas into
western Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. It remains somewhat uncertain
how morning convection will evolve and what the resulting effect on
the thermodynamic environment will be. Most guidance suggests that
in the area ahead of the dryline across central OK to the Red River
in northern Texas will develop at least moderate instability
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE). Deep layer shear profiles will remain
strong favoring supercells as the primary mode. The main threat will
be for large to very large hail and damaging wind, given linearly
elongated hodographs and weaker low-level shear.

Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop further north across
the central Plains into the Great Lakes region along the
dryline/cold front intersection. A messy mode with mix of supercells
and multi-cell clusters is likely given the eventual southward
moving cold front. Similarly, the main risks will be for damaging
wind and large hail across these regions.

...Northeast...
Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along and
south of a diffuse frontal boundary across the Great Lakes into
southern NY/northern PA. Modestly unstable profiles, steepening
lapse rates, and strong deep layer shear will allow for some
isolated severe storm risk. Primary risk would be for damaging wind
and small hail, though, a tornado could be possible near the
boundary.

..Thornton.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140723
SWODY3
SPC AC 140722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the Ohio Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Midwest vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the MS Valley to the
Appalachians on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow
will overspread the MO Bootheel toward Lake Erie ahead of this
feature. At the surface, a corridor of upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place ahead of a surface front. Some ongoing
convection and cloudiness early in the day will limit stronger
destabilization, but at least weak MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast. While low-level flow will be weak, around 30-40 kt
west/southwesterly flow between 850-700 mb and 40+ kt effective
shear magnitudes will aid in some storm organization. A mix of
clusters and line segments will bring a risk of locally strong gusts
where stronger heating results in steepened low-level lapse rates.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A conditionally favorable supercell environment will be in place
across the southern Plains on Thursday ahead of a dryline. A weak
shortwave impulse is forecast to move across the region early in the
day, departing by early afternoon. Height rises/shortwave ridging is
then forecast to build across the area. At this time, thunderstorm
development is not forecast as weak capping in the absence of
large-scale ascent should be maintained. However, trends will be
monitored given the otherwise very favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment. Otherwise, isolated elevated convection is
possible late in the period in a warm advection regime across north
TX into southern OK.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$

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